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Scratch (Paperback)
Audrey Henshaw; Illustrated by Susan Krupp; Thomas W Brown
bundle available
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R461
Discovery Miles 4 610
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Ships in 10 - 15 working days
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The United States Coast Guard uses pooled time series analysis to
develop a ship and aviation fuel requirement forecasting model.
Given the volatility of aviation fuel prices and the USAF
dependency on foreign oil, alternative fuel sources are a serious
consideration and require forecasting models when conducting
comparison studies. This research uses the Coast Guard's
methodology to develop an Air Force aviation fuel requirements
model for the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (AFCAA). By pooling
1,442 historical consumption time series data points, two
regression models are developed that predict aviation fuel
requirements in gallons. The remaining 356 randomly excluded data
points are then used to validate the two regression models. The
research shows that 100 percent of the least squares estimated
gallons consumed fell within a 95 percent confidence interval for
the single and the sub macro-level models. However, the single and
sub macro-level models are fundamentally flawed as both fail the
underlying linear regression assumptions of normality, constant
variance, and independence. Although the research produces two
models that predict aviation fuel requirements well, the
application of either the single or sub macro-level models are
discourage without proper understanding of the underlying
statistics provided.
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Nadine Gordimer
Paperback
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R383
R318
Discovery Miles 3 180
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