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No issue is more fundamental in contemporary macroeconomics than identifying the causes of the recent Great Recession. The standard view is that the banks were to blame because they took on too much risk, 'went bust' and had to be bailed out by governments. However very few banks actually had losses in excess of their capital. The counter-argument presented in this stimulating new book is that the Great Recession was in fact caused by a collapse in the rate of change of the quantity of money. This was the result of a mistimed and inappropriate tightening of banks' capital regulations, which had vicious deflationary consequences at just the wrong point in the business cycle. Central bankers and financial regulators made serious mistakes. The book's argument echoes that on the causes of the Great Depression made by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz in their classic book A Monetary History of the United States. Offering an alternative monetary explanation of the Great Recession, this book is essential reading for all economists working in macroeconomics and monetary economics. It will also appeal to those interested in the wider public policy debates arising from the crisis and its aftermath. Contributors include: P. Booth, J.E. Castaneda, T. Congdon, C. Goodhart, S. Hanke, D. Laidler, A. Ridley, R. Skidelsky, R. Thomas
The last 20 years have seen severe macroeconomic instability in Britain, with three extreme and highly damaging boom-bust cycles. Professor Tim Congdon, one of the City's most well-known commentators, has been an influential critic of successive governments' failures in economic policy throughout this period. Reflections on Monetarism brings together his most important academic papers and journalism, including his remarkably prescient series of articles in The Times from 1985 to 1988 forecasting that the Lawson credit boom would wreck the Thatcher Government's reputation for sound financial management. He presents a powerful argument that the root cause of Britain's economic instability has been the volatile growth of credit and the money supply.
What does the future hold for broadcasting in Britain? What revenues will be available for funding programming in the 1990s and beyond? British broadcasting stands on the threshold of immense change. The BBC is reviewing its purpose and funding in an era of deregulation, mixed funding and multiple services. The independent television companies have staked their futures on advertising revenues which may not materialise, meanwhile, broadcasters face increasing competition for viewers and revenue from satellite television channels. There is much agreement about what the audience wants in the 1990s: quality programmes, diversity, home grown entertainment, comprehensive cultural coverage and reliable information at the flick of a switch. There is less agreement about how these needs are to be met and what balance is required between commercial and public broadcasting to ensure that they are satisfied. "Paying for Broadcasting: The Handbook" takes these debates on board through a wide-ranging discussion of funding options open to broadcasters.
First published in 2004. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor and Francis, an informa company.
Keynes, the Keynesians and Monetarism is a major contribution to the continuing debate on macroeconomic policy-making. Tim Congdon has been a strong supporter of monetarist economic principles for over 30 years. His writings - in the newspapers and for parliamentary committees, as well as in academic journals - played an influential role in the transformation of British macroeconomic policy in the 1980s and 1990s. This book brings together the main papers written by the author since his 1992 collection, Reflections on Monetarism. It challenges several 'conventional wisdoms' about UK macroeconomic policy (and thinking about policy), arguing - for example - that the Keynesians' advocacy of incomes policy and fiscal activism in the immediate post-war decades did not have a clear basis in Keynes's own writings. The book denies that the UK had a 'Keynesian revolution', in the sense of a deliberately pursued fiscal activism to promote 'full employment'. Implicit throughout the volume is a distinctive view of how the economy works, with an account of the transmission mechanism (from money to the economy) in which movements in asset prices and aggregate demand are strongly influenced by the quantity of money. Congdon uses this approach to demonstrate that monetary policy has had more powerful effects on macroeconomic activity in the post-war period than fiscal policy. He also suggests that the now fashionable 'New Keynesian' view of policy-making acknowledges the primacy of monetary policy and would be better termed 'output gap monetarism'. In short, Keynes, the Keynesians and Monetarism contends that monetarism defeated Keynesianism in the battle of ideas in the 1970s and 1980s. The achievement of greater macroeconomic stability in the last 15 years is largely due to the impact of monetarist thinking on policy-making. The book is clearly and attractively written, and covers topics that are fundamental to macroeconomic thinking and policy-making. It will be a provocative and appealing read for scholars at all levels of economics, macroeconomics and monetary theory. It will also find an audience among policymakers in central banks and finance ministries, business economists working in companies, and financial economists in the City of London and other centres.
Keynes, the Keynesians and Monetarism is a major contribution to the continuing debate on macroeconomic policy-making. Tim Congdon has been a strong supporter of monetarist economic principles for over 30 years. His writings - in the newspapers and for parliamentary committees, as well as in academic journals - played an influential role in the transformation of British macroeconomic policy in the 1980s and 1990s. This book brings together the main papers written by the author since his 1992 collection, Reflections on Monetarism. It challenges several 'conventional wisdoms' about UK macroeconomic policy (and thinking about policy), arguing - for example - that the Keynesians' advocacy of incomes policy and fiscal activism in the immediate post-war decades did not have a clear basis in Keynes's own writings. The book denies that the UK had a 'Keynesian revolution', in the sense of a deliberately pursued fiscal activism to promote 'full employment'. Implicit throughout the volume is a distinctive view of how the economy works, with an account of the transmission mechanism (from money to the economy) in which movements in asset prices and aggregate demand are strongly influenced by the quantity of money. Congdon uses this approach to demonstrate that monetary policy has had more powerful effects on macroeconomic activity in the post-war period than fiscal policy. He also suggests that the now fashionable 'New Keynesian' view of policy-making acknowledges the primacy of monetary policy and would be better termed 'output gap monetarism'. In short, Keynes, the Keynesians and Monetarism contends that monetarism defeated Keynesianism in the battle of ideas in the 1970s and 1980s. The achievement of greater macroeconomic stability in the last 15 years is largely due to the impact of monetarist thinking on policy-making. The book is clearly and attractively written, and covers topics that are fundamental to macroeconomic thinking and policy-making. It will be a provocative and appealing read for scholars at all levels of economics, macroeconomics and monetary theory. It will also find an audience among policymakers in central banks and finance ministries, business economists working in companies, and financial economists in the City of London and other centres.
By considering recent and historical events such as the Great Depression, episodes of boom and bust in the UK, and the malaise in Japan in the 1990s and the early 21st century, monetary economist Tim Congdon is able to show how monetary policy affects both financial markets and the real economy. In all these episodes, fluctuations in money supply growth led to booms or busts in financial markets and were associated with turbulence in the price level and in output and employment. The crucial linkages between monetary policy and financial markets, argues the author, involve broad money, not narrow money. Non-bank financial institutions, such as pension funds and insurance companies, play a critical role in transmitting fluctuations in money growth to asset prices. This monograph is an important contribution to the crucial debate on the role of monetary aggregates in setting monetary policy. Congdon's argument, that ignoring monetary aggregates can lead to profound instability in the real economy, is compelling.
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