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This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This volume
presents an Empirical Model of Global Climate developed by the
authors and uses that model to show that global warming will likely
remain below 2C, relative to preindustrial, throughout this century
provided: a) both the unconditional and conditional Paris INDC
commitments are followed; b) the emission reductions needed to
achieve the Paris INDCs are carried forward to 2060 and beyond. The
first section of the book provides a short overview of Earth's
climate system, describing and contrasting climatic changes
throughout the planet's history and anthropogenic changes
post-Industrial Revolution. The second section describes the
climate model developed by the authors (Canty et al., Atmospheric
Chemistry and Physics, 2013) and contrasts the model with climate
models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
2013 Report. Chapter 3 examines both the unconditional (i.e., firm
commitments) and conditional Paris INDCs (commitments contingent on
financial flow and/or technology transfer) through the lens of
their climate model and concludes that if all of the Paris INDCs
are followed, then they are indeed a beacon of hope for Earth's
climate. The fourth part of the book offers a perspective of energy
needs and subsequent emissions reductions required to meet the
Paris temperature goals, illuminating challenges faced both in the
developing world and the developed world. Throughout the book,
easy-to-understand charts and graphics illustrate concepts. The
scientific basis of Chapters 2 and 3 was first presented in a
keynote session of the 96th Annual Meeting of the American
Meteorological Society in January, 2016.
This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This volume
presents an Empirical Model of Global Climate developed by the
authors and uses that model to show that global warming will likely
remain below 2C, relative to preindustrial, throughout this century
provided: a) both the unconditional and conditional Paris INDC
commitments are followed; b) the emission reductions needed to
achieve the Paris INDCs are carried forward to 2060 and beyond. The
first section of the book provides a short overview of Earth's
climate system, describing and contrasting climatic changes
throughout the planet's history and anthropogenic changes
post-Industrial Revolution. The second section describes the
climate model developed by the authors (Canty et al., Atmospheric
Chemistry and Physics, 2013) and contrasts the model with climate
models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
2013 Report. Chapter 3 examines both the unconditional (i.e., firm
commitments) and conditional Paris INDCs (commitments contingent on
financial flow and/or technology transfer) through the lens of
their climate model and concludes that if all of the Paris INDCs
are followed, then they are indeed a beacon of hope for Earth's
climate. The fourth part of the book offers a perspective of energy
needs and subsequent emissions reductions required to meet the
Paris temperature goals, illuminating challenges faced both in the
developing world and the developed world. Throughout the book,
easy-to-understand charts and graphics illustrate concepts. The
scientific basis of Chapters 2 and 3 was first presented in a
keynote session of the 96th Annual Meeting of the American
Meteorological Society in January, 2016.
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