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Showing 1 - 2 of 2 matches in All Departments
Volatility ranks among the most active and successful areas of research in econometrics and empirical asset pricing finance over the past three decades. This research review studies and analyses some of the most influential published works from this burgeoning literature, both classic and contemporary. Topics covered include GARCH, stochastic and multivariate volatility models as well as forecasting, evaluation and high-frequency data. This insightful review presents and discusses the most important milestones and contributions that helped pave the way to today's understanding of volatility.
Using a unique high-frequency futures dataset, we characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. We find that news produces conditional mean jumps; hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. Equity markets, moreover, react differently to news depending on the stage of the business cycle, which explains the low correlation between stock and bond returns when averaged over the cycle. Hence our results qualify earlier work suggesting that bond markets react most strongly to macroeconomic news; in particular, when conditioning on the state of the economy, the equity and foreign exchange markets appear equally responsive. Finally, we also document important contemporaneous links across all markets and countries, even after controlling for the effects of macroeconomic news.
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