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Economic theory defines and constrains admissible functional form
and functional structure throughout the economy. Constraints on
behavioral functions of individual economic agents and on the
recursive nesting of those behavioral functions often are derived
directly from economic theory. Theoretically implied constraints on
the properties of equilibrium stochastic solution paths also are
common, although are less directly derived. In both cases, the
restrictions on relevant function spaces have implications for
econometric modeling and for the choice of hypotheses to be tested
and potentially imposed. This book contains state-of-the-art
cumulative research and results on functional structure,
approximation, and estimation: for (1) individual economic agents,
(2) aggregation over those agents, and (3) equilibrium solution
stochastic processes.
A: Functional Structure Modeling, Aggregation, and Estimation.
Over the past 25 years, William Barnett, who is a coeditor of this
volume, has advanced the state of the art of this subject in many
directions. He has contributed many new modeling and inference
approaches, such as the Laurent series flexible functional form
approach, the Mntz-Szatz series seminonparametric approach, the
generalized hypocycloidal utility tree approach, and an aggregated
convergence approach within the space of stochastic differential
equations. Many of Barnett's innovations contain the earlier Taylor
series and CES approaches as nested special cases. He also has
contributed extensively to the literature on aggregation over
approximating specifications in econometrics, as well as to
aggregation over economic agents and goods in economic theory.
Inaddition, his work in those areas has motivated new approaches by
others, such as the generalized symmetric Barnett approach
originated by Diewert and Wales (1987).
Part 1 of this book contains Barnett's contributions to functional
structure modeling and estimation for consumers, while Part 2
contains his contributions on those subjects for firms.
B: Statistical Theory.
Barnett's contributions to statistical theory provide much of the
asymptotic statistical theory needed to apply econometric inference
procedures to the literature on economic functional structure and
approximation. His contributions to the relevant statistical theory
include discovery of the measure theoretic foundations for
confidence regions in sampling theoretic statistics and the
derivation of the asymptotic theory for joint maximum likelihood
inference with closed-form systemwide models. He originated a
multivariate extension of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to permit
testing the disturbances of an equation system for multivariate
normality.
Part 3 contains relevant results in statistical theory.
C: Nonlinear Time Series.
Analogous approximation and function space problems arise in time
series approaches. A Volterra expansion in the time domain with a
finite number of terms cannot span the space of possible
time-series solution processes from the state space structures of
economic theory. Hence when sample size is finite, all structural
and time-series approximating specifications, whether dynamic or
static, drive an unavoidable wedge between econometrics and
economic theory. No easy solution exists to this inherently deep
problem in econometric modeling and testing.
Inthe time series literature, Barnett has designed and run a
competition among tests for nonlinear and chaotic structure. The
purpose was to investigate paradoxes that arose in that literature
following his publication of findings of nonlinearity and chaos in
some economic time series. The literature on modeling and filtering
out linear structure from time series is now highly advanced. But
many unsolved problems remain in the literature on modeling or
filtering out various forms of nonlinear structure from time
series. The results of Barnett's competition have cast much needed
light on those problems and the relative properties of the various
available competing approaches.
Contributions to time series modeling and inference in the time
domain and the frequency domain are provided in Part 4.
In recent years, there has been renewed interest in index number
and aggregation theory, since the two previously divergent fields
have been successfully unified. The underlying aggregator functions
which are weakly separable subfunctions of utility and production
functions, are the building blocks of economic theory, and the
derivation of index numbers based upon their ability to track those
building blocks is now called the "economic theory of index
numbers."
William Barnett, the coeditor of this volume, introduced modern
economic index number theory into monetary economics. His merger of
economic index number theory, with monetary theory was based upon
the use of Diewert's approach to producing "superlative"
nonparametric approximations to the theoretically exact aggregator
functions. This book comprises a focussed and unified collection of
Barnett's most important publications in this area.
The papers in the book have been organized into logical sections,
with unifying introductions and overviews. The result is a
systematic development of the state of the art in monetary and
financial aggregation theory. The sections cover the origin of the
user cost price of monetary services. Exact aggregation of monetary
assets on the demand side for consumers and firms, and on the
supply side for financial intermediaries, general equilibrium of
all economic agents' demands and supplies, dynamic solution of the
exact system, and extension to monetary aggregation under risk. The
extension of index number theory to the case of risk is completely
general, and can be applied to tracking any exact economic
aggregator under risk. In all cases, the criterion used for
evaluation isthe tracking ability of the approximation to the exact
aggregator function of economic theory.
Many of the empirical and policy puzzles in monetary economics
disappear when simple sum monetary aggregates are replaced by index
numbers that are coherent with theory. Simple sum monetary
aggregates became incoherent with theory, when monetary assets
began paying interest and therefore could no longer be viewed as
perfect substitutes.
This is a useful tool to those associated with economics
departments within universities, business schools, central banks
and federal governments, financial institutions including
underwriters, bankers and stockbrokers.
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