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This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice
associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the
face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools
supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty,
and their testing in the real world, including barriers and
enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional
approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks
related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned
in the application process can be used to improve the approaches
and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in
identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design
plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real
world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes
realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them
understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it
may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep
Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts.
Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under
deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive
Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision
Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked
out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps
to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights,
and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of
these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the
practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in
depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in
real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part
IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be
drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans
under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work.
The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud
University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology,
and Deltares.
Traditional policy analysis approaches are characterized by a
focus on system modeling and choosing among policy alternatives.
While successful in many cases, this approach has been increasingly
criticized for being technocratic and ignoring the behavioral and
political dimensions of most policy processes. In recent decades,
increased awareness of the multi-actor, multiple perspective, and
poly-centric character of many policy processes has led to the
development of a variety of different perspectives on the styles
and roles of policy analysis, and to new analytical tools and
approaches for example, argumentative approaches, participative
policy analysis, and negotiation support. As a result, the field
has become multi-faceted and somewhat fragmented.
"Public Policy Analysis: New Developments "acknowledges the
variety of approaches and provides a synthesis of the traditional
and new approaches to policy analysis. It provides an overview and
typology of different types of policy analytic activities,
characterizing them according to differences in character and
leading values, and linking them to a variety of theoretical
notions on policymaking. Thereby, it provides assistance to both
end users and analysts in choosing an appropriate approach given a
specific policy situation. By broadening the traditional approach
and methods to include the analysis of actors and actor networks
related to the policy issue at hand, it deepens the state of the
art in certain areas. While the main focus of the book is on the
cognitive dimensions of policy analysis, it also links the policy
analysis process to the policymaking process, showing how to
identify and involve all relevant stakeholders in the process, and
how to create favorable conditions for use of the results of policy
analytic efforts by the policy actors.
The book has as its major objective to describe the
state-of-the-art and the latest developments in "ex-ante" policy
analysis. It is divided into two parts. Part I explores and
structures policy analysis developments, the development and
description of approaches to diagnose policy situations, design
policy analytic efforts, and policy process conditions. Part II
focuses on recent developments regarding models and modeling for
policy analysis, placing modeling approaches in the context of the
variety of conditions and approaches elaborated in Part I. "
Traditional policy analysis approaches are characterized by a focus
on system modeling and choosing among policy alternatives. While
successful in many cases, this approach has been increasingly
criticized for being technocratic and ignoring the behavioral and
political dimensions of most policy processes. In recent decades,
increased awareness of the multi-actor, multiple perspective, and
poly-centric character of many policy processes has led to the
development of a variety of different perspectives on the styles
and roles of policy analysis, and to new analytical tools and
approaches - for example, argumentative approaches, participative
policy analysis, and negotiation support. As a result, the field
has become multi-faceted and somewhat fragmented. Public Policy
Analysis: New Developments acknowledges the variety of approaches
and provides a synthesis of the traditional and new approaches to
policy analysis. It provides an overview and typology of different
types of policy analytic activities, characterizing them according
to differences in character and leading values, and linking them to
a variety of theoretical notions on policymaking. Thereby, it
provides assistance to both end users and analysts in choosing an
appropriate approach given a specific policy situation. By
broadening the traditional approach and methods to include the
analysis of actors and actor networks related to the policy issue
at hand, it deepens the state of the art in certain areas. While
the main focus of the book is on the cognitive dimensions of policy
analysis, it also links the policy analysis process to the
policymaking process, showing how to identify and involve all
relevant stakeholders in the process, and how to create favorable
conditions for use of the results of policy analytic efforts by the
policy actors. The book has as its major objective to describe the
state-of-the-art and the latest developments in ex-ante policy
analysis. It is divided into two parts. Part I explores and
structures policy analysis developments, the development and
description of approaches to diagnose policy situations, design
policy analytic efforts, and policy process conditions. Part II
focuses on recent developments regarding models and modeling for
policy analysis, placing modeling approaches in the context of the
variety of conditions and approaches elaborated in Part I.
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