Foreword Also Written By Malcolm M. Willey.

SOCIAL CHANGES IN 1931 Edited by WILLIAM F. OGBURN THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO PRESS CHICAGO ILLINOIS CONTENTS POPULATION TRENDS IN AGE COMPOSITION AND IN SPECIFIC BIRTH RATES, 1920-30. P. K. Whelpton 855 NATURAL RESOURCES. George Otis Smith . . 862 INVENTIONS AND DISCOVERIES. S. .. GiljUlan SOS PRODUCTION. Dorothy Wcscott . . . 876 AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY. Frederic k L. Schunmn . .... 88. LABOR. David J. Saposs ... ... SSg THE EARNINGS OF LABOR. Howard B. Myers . ... 8 6 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND RELATKD CONDITIONS OK LABOR. William A. Bcr ridge .... ... . . o. SOCIAL AND LABOR LEGISLATION. Charles V. Pipkin io MEDICINE AND PUBLIC HEALTH. Harry 11. Moore . ... 017 COMMTNITY ORGANIZATION. LeRoy K. Bowman . . . K4 CITY LIFE. Nilcs Carpenter . . . o o RURAL LIFK. Bruce L. Mclvin 037 THE FAMILY. Ernest R. Groves .... . . 042 THE CHILD. Grace Abbott . . MO WOMEN. Chase Going Wood house . . . . . . . 056 CRIME. Clark Tibbitts M RELIGION. Benson Y. Landis . . . 070 RACE RELATIONS. Melville 7. Herskwits 76 EDUCATION. Charles II. Judd .... g8. CJOVERNMENT. . P. Chamberlain-900 SOCIAL CHANGES IN 1931 Reprinted from THE AMERICAN JOURNAL OF SOCIOLOGY VOLUME XXXVII MAY 1932 NUMBER 6 POPULATION TRENDS IN AGE COMPOSITION AND IN SPECIFIC BIRTH-RATES, 1920-30 P. K. WHELPTON Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Problems Miami University ABSTRACT From IQ2O to 1930 the proportion of the population in the older age groups increased considerably, particularly among the foreign-born. Specific birth-rates declined in most cases. The declines usually were greater in those areas having the highest rates and within each area they varied directly with age. The changes that occurred in the agedistribution of the popu lation between 1920 and 1930 are of great significance. Figure i shows in pyramid form the size of each age period on the two census dates, and the gains or losses during the decade. The 1920 pyramid, outlined in white, has a broad base and tapers rapidly to the peak. The 1930 pyramid, outlined in black, is narrower at the base than higher up and comes to a peak by more gradual steps. It is consider ably more like the beehive shape that described a stationary popula tion and has the drawing in at the base, which represents a marked step toward the Egyptian mummy-case shape of a declining popula tion. The 1930 census was the first in the United States to show fewer children 0-4 than 5-9, 10-14 or 15-19, or than 0-4 in the preceding census but the 1940 census will show additional signs of an ap proaching era of a decreasing population. There were about 10 per 855 856 THE AMERICAN JOURNAL OF SOCIOLOGY cent fewer births in 1930 and 1931 than in 1925 and 1926, which makes it practically certain that in 1940 there will be fewer children 5-9 than 10-14. And unless the decline in births which has been going on almost without a break since 1921 is soon checked, the 1940 census will show fewer children 0-4 than 5-9. The 10-14 age period is sure to be smaller than the period 15-19 in 1940, since in 1930 there were fewer children 0-4 than 5-9, hence each five-year age period would be smaller than the one above it up to 15-19. While the population under 5 declined from 1920 to 1930, that of older age periods became larger. In general, the older the age period, the greater was the rate of increase, the number of persons 5-9 being 10.6 per cent larger in 1930 than 1920, butthe number 75 and over going up 30.2 per cent. This is a situation which has held true for several decades, and is likely to be intensified in the next few decades. A discussion of the chief causal factors declines in birth rates, death-rates, and immigration has been presented elsewhere. 1 While Figure i and the accompanying discussion deal with the situation of the total population, they also apply fairly well to the native-white and Negro groups. Among the foreign-born, however, the situation is quite different, as may be seen from Figure 2...