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Given the magnitude of currency speculation and sports gambling, it
is surprising that the literature contains mostly negative
forecasting results. Majority opinion still holds that short term
fluctuations in financial markets follow random walk. In this
non-random walk through financial and sports gambling markets,
parallels are drawn between modeling short term currency movements
and modeling outcomes of athletic encounters. The forecasting
concepts and methodologies are identical; only the variables change
names. If, in fact, these markets are driven by mechanisms of
non-random walk, there must be some explanation for the negative
forecasting results. The Analysis of Sports Forecasting: Modeling
Parallels Between Sports Gambling and Financial Markets examines
this issue.
Given the magnitude of currency speculation and sports gambling, it
is surprising that the literature contains mostly negative
forecasting results. Majority opinion still holds that short term
fluctuations in financial markets follow random walk. In this
non-random walk through financial and sports gambling markets,
parallels are drawn between modeling short term currency movements
and modeling outcomes of athletic encounters. The forecasting
concepts and methodologies are identical; only the variables change
names. If, in fact, these markets are driven by mechanisms of
non-random walk, there must be some explanation for the negative
forecasting results. The Analysis of Sports Forecasting: Modeling
Parallels Between Sports Gambling and Financial Markets examines
this issue.
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