Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

Emerging markets have received a particular attention of academic researchers and practitioners since they decided to open their domestic capital markets to foreign participants about three decades ago. At the same time, we remark that theoretical and empirical research in emerging stock markets has been particularly challenged by their fast changes in nature and size under the effects of financial liberalization and reforms. This evolving feature has particularly led to a commensurate increase in sophistication of modeling techniques used for understanding financial markets. In this spirit, the book aims at providing the audience a comprehensive understanding of emerging stock markets in various aspects using modern financial econometric methods. It addresses the empirical techniques needed by economic agents to analyze the dynamics of these markets and illustrates how they can be applied to the actual data. On the other hand, it presents and discusses new research findings and their implications.

Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

This book contains several innovative models for the prices of financial assets. First published in 1986, it is a classic text in the area of financial econometrics. It presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models that are often used and cited in academic research and are applied by quantitative analysts in many banks. Another often-cited contribution of the first edition is the documentation of statistical characteristics of financial returns, which are referred to as stylized facts.This second edition takes into account the remarkable progress made by empirical researchers during the past two decades from 1986 to 2006. In the new Preface, the author summarizes this progress in two key areas: firstly, measuring, modelling and forecasting volatility; and secondly, detecting and exploiting price trends.

More than 50 developing countries depend on three or fewer commodities for more than half of their exports and, in fact, many rely on a single commodity for a large share of export earnings. This reliance inevitability exposes countries to the risk of export earnings instability as a result of price shocks and, perhaps even more significantly, the falling purchasing power of exports over the long run due to declining real prices. Presenting for the first time a complete analysis of the issues surrounding commodity prices and development, this book is the culmination of three years of research commissioned by the Commonwealth Secretariat to look at various aspects of commodity prices.
The problems faced by commodity dependent developing countries are formidable. Although diversification is the most appropriate response to the problem of the secular decline in commodity prices, long-term transformation in the economy can be a slow process and its success will depend on a host of factors such as the development of human resources, institutional capacity building, poverty alleviation, and appropriate domestic policy and environment. By granting increased aid flows and debt relief, and providing assistance to encourage production of non-traditional export items, the international community can play a proactive role in the development of the commodity dependent poor countries. Only concerted efforts both at the domestic fronts of these countries and via co-operation extended by the international community can help mitigate the problems of the world's most vulnerable economies.

THE SECRETS TO CAPITALIZING ON THE COMMODITIES BOOM

In the mid-1970s, when Bob Greer scrolled through miles of microfilm in the basement of a public library in order to record commodity prices in his yellow legal pad, the idea of commodities being an investable asset class was way outside the mainstream. Now, it's a multibilliondollar vehicle for achieving portfolio diversification and inflation hedging--and he and his colleagues have written the book on earning better returns than the indexes themselves

In "Intelligent Commodity Indexing," Bob joins his fellow leaders of PIMCO's Commodity Practice, Nic Johnson and Mihir Worah, in opening up commodity indexes. Never before has there been a more thorough explanation of how a commodity index works coupled with a powerful set of strategies for making it work for you. Inside, you'll find the most up-to-date tools and time-proven best practices for earning "structural alpha" by capitalizing on recurring risk and liquidity premiums in the commodities markets. It offers the right amount of history and theory to reinforce cuttingedge techniques for: Interpreting how seasonal effects change risk premia Choosing the most profitable market for specific commodity exposure Using intelligent commodity indexing to collect risk premiums in the options market Maximizing roll yield in order to increase long-term returns Managing risk, including specific frameworks and systems

Investors gain a superior advantage with this book's coverage of the nuts-and-bolts workings of various markets.

Praise for "Intelligent Commodity Indexing"

""A seminal work on an asset class that has grown in importance within institutional portfolios. The authors offer considerable insight to this complex asset class and provide investors with a thorough examination of the drivers of risk and return."" -- Julia K. Bonafede, CFA, President of Wilshire Consulting

""This is an excellent guide for professional investors to successful investing in commodity indexes."" -- Blythe Masters, Head of Global Commodities, JP Morgan

""A manual written by successful practitioners for intelligent commodity investors. An excellent guide which explains how this asset class complements and interacts with other investments."" -- Alan H. Van Noord, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, Pennsylvania Public School Employees' Retirement System

""Commodities are invaluable tools for investors wishing to benefit from diversification and inflation hedging. For such an investor, this is the authoritative source to all you need to know about commodity indexing."" -- Mark Makepeace, Chief Executive, FTSE Group

""Greer, Johnson, and Worah simply explain the critical drivers to commodity index returns that have provided the main historical benefits of diversification and inflation protection. Every commodity index investor, or hopeful investor, should read this book and use it as a guide for evaluating the relevant index characteristics for benchmarking and investing, especially given recent industry innovations."" -- Jodie Gunzberg, CFA, Director-Commodities, S&P Indexes

They say John Maynard Keynes called gold a 'barbarous relic'. They say there isn't enough gold to support finance and commerce. They say the gold supply can't increase fast enough to support world growth. They're wrong. In The New Case for Gold, James Rickards explains why gold is one of the safest assets for investors in times of political instability and market volatility, and how every investor should look to add gold to his or her portfolio. Drawing on historical case studies, monetary theory and his personal experience as an investor, Rickards argues that gold should be a part of any prudent investor's portfolio. James Rickards is the bestselling author of Currency Wars and The Death of Money. He is a portfolio manager at West Shore Group and an adviser on international economics and financial threats to the Department of Defence and the US intelligence community. He served as facilitator of the first-ever financial war games conducted by the Pentagon.

Got Gold? Get Gold The Get Gold guide book is your compass for protecting the wealth you have and surviving the unfolding Greater Depression. The U.S. Dollar is no longer backed by gold. In fact, it is not backed by anything except legal tender laws. New dollars are simply created as needed. This is known as inflation of the money supply and has the effect of devaluing every other dollar already in existence. This over-issuance of dollars causes prices to rise. Gold is money. Gold has always been money throughout recorded history. Periodically, gold is not recognized as money. It becomes recognized as money again when currencies falter. The U.S. Dollar is currently faltering and its devaluation is accelerating. Gold is the anti-dollar and the dollar is the anti-gold. As the value of the dollar erodes, it takes more of them to purchase a set amount of gold. It is clear that both gold and silver have been in a bull market since the turn of the century and will continue to be unless the devaluation of the dollar ceases. We must protect ourselves from this rapid debasement of our currency with tangible assets. The most conservative of all commodities and assets are precious metals. This book explains why you must have gold and silver to protect your wealth and provides ample advice for how to do so. Fundamentally, it seeks to answer the following questions. Is gold in a bull market? If so, how can I profit? What are the factors that will cause it to remain a bull market? When is a good time to buy? What do the experts say? How long will it remain in a bull market? (i.e. When do I sell?) What type of gold should I buy? How high is the price likely to rise? What percentage of my savings should be in bullion? How does this bull market compare to the last gold bull market? Why is gold so valuable? Isn't it just as good to hold dollars or stocks? What are some of the gold equities I can invest in? Which are the most risky and which are the most conservative? What do I need to know to not get taken when selling my gold jewelry? What are grandpa's old silver coins worth? What do I need to know when buying silver or gold? Where do I store my precious metals? What's safest? Can I hold gold in my retirement account? Is an investment in gold taxable? Protect yourself NOW before it's too late.

Very few books published so far have touched upon commodity finance and fewer still have provided a systematic explanation and analysis of the subject. It is however a subject that is relevant throughout almost every corner of the world From food to gold, commodities are ubiquitious. In this book, Dr. W. Huang, a practitioner and a trainer, covers commodities, commodity markets, commodity trade and the finance of commodity trade. As such, practitioners such as bankers and traders in commodity finance, and those institutions operating in this field, or planning to be active in this field, will all benefit from this book. This revised and updated second edition is a hands-on summary of commodity finance, with a special chapter dedicated to real-life case studies of commodity finance. Topics covered include: - High-level overview of commodity trade and finance. - The three major sectors of commodity finance: soft commodities, hard commodities and energy - Commodity finance and emerging markets, as most commodity export countries are emerging markets countries. - The special mechanisms and products of commodity finance, from plain vanilla products to more complicated structures. The concept of Supply Chain Finance is also covered in detail. - Bank and country risk. - Risk management principles, with practical case studies. - The organization of a typical commodity finance bank. The key benefits of the book are: For bankers - how to do business and what risks should be watched for? For traders, brokers and institutional investors - how commodity finance is done and what bank instruments can be used. For students - how is commodity finance handled and developed by banks? Each chapter can be read independently. The content has been reviewed by both experts and newcomers, incorporating their comments on style and content, to ensure it is as useful and clear as possible.

Little is known about the personal lives of each of these authors, but in surveying their other books and writings, a more informed picture emerges of their capabilities in their chosen field, stock and futures market analysis. From the quality and clearness of the writings in this and other of his works, it soon becomes apparent that Victor DeVilliers was not only very knowledgeable on the markets but he had the uncommon talent to put it into written words. (Most market authors are generally better traders and investors than writers.) On the other hand Owen Taylor was certainly extremely capable, being more the expert on the technical aspects of market analysis, something easily ascertainable from the Technical Analysis subjects that he presented in his own books and booklets. It is to the credit of both authors that they recognized just how valuable to investors and traders the Point and Figure method could be and that they saw fit to produce this fascinating work on a subject that in its essence is just putting small "Xs" on graph paper.But how to put them to graph paper and how to read their meanings is what can separate the trading and investing boys from the trading and investing men. Surveying all of the writings that have been published over the years, we find there have been and are a number of good, very good and excellent books on the Point and Figure methodology and its star attributes. However, every once in a while someone comes along and writes what is easily the seminal work, the finest on its particular subject. Some 65 years later we can attest to the fact that Victor DeVilliers and Owen Taylor rule the roost on their chosen subject with the two volumes republished here, which taken together, have to be considered the ultimate - "The Bible of Point and Figure Charting."

Gold Is A Better Way is a financially enlightening guide that reveals the shocking truth about where the markets are headed. It also reveals why owning physical gold is a far better strategy to building real wealth as opposed to the inflated paper assets Wall Street recommends. There is a massive environmental shift happening in financial markets today. Interest rates are rising and what has been very easy for investors in the past is about to become very hard. Everything people think they know about investing is being turned on its head. It's time to change investing behavior. A self-help book for the everyday investor, Gold Is A Better Way is a metaphor for sound investing. Adam Baratta strips away all the confusion and complexities surrounding investing and breaks down investment concepts and the simple fundamentals driving markets. He provides a roadmap for how to win at the game of investing and, more importantly, explains the "why" so readers can continue to win. Everyday investors gain tools that allow them to know with certainty they are making sound investment decisions, as well as an understanding of where to diversify investments that have historically performed well.There's no changing behavior without changing beliefs. Gold Is A Better Way offers a fresh investment strategy and makes the case for a return to sound investing, turning the strategies recommended by Wall Street on their head as financial conditions become tighter and tighter.