A rare opportunity to go one-on-one with an industry giant and one of today's most respected financial thinkers, Merton Miller on Derivatives is a refreshingly accessible overview of derivatives, the revolution they have wrought, and the disasters they've supposedly caused.

Though routinely assailed by regulators and the media, derivatives are hailed by a celebrated group of practitioners, analysts, and theorists, led most notably by Nobel laureate Merton Miller. Miller is legendary for repeatedly demonstrating—often with humor and always with grace—the value of derivatives in price discovery, managing financial risk, and tailoring a risk-return profile.

Here, in this collection of his recent essays, Miller expounds on a number of critical derivatives issues. Is it a problem that some organizations have lost substantial sums on derivatives? Miller's short answer: Some organizations will always find ways to lose money. Nor does he believe that more government regulation is the answer. He notes, for example, that for all the horror stories about derivatives, the world's banks have lost vastly more in bad real estate deals than they'll ever lose on their derivatives portfolios.

Merton Miller on Derivatives offers twenty-two provocative chapters. A sampling: "The Recent Derivatives 'Disasters': Assessing the Damage" takes a close look at such debacles as Procter & Gamble, Orange County, and Barings Bank. "Financial Regulation: The Inside Game" uses an apt sports analogy to show how the derivatives regulatory game is really played, as opposed to the way outsiders imagine it is played. "Japanese-American Trade Relations: Can Rambo Beat Godzilla?" succinctly sums up the nature of Japanese-American trade. And "Risk and Return on Futures Contracts: A Chicago View" highlights the pivotal role derivatives play in hedging risk.

There are also penetrating pieces on corporate governance that compare the system existing in the United States and England with the one existing in Germany and Japan. To complete the collection, a section called "Questions I'm Often Asked" features Miller's unique perspective on a wide range of topics, from what's ahead for China to what we've learned from the Crash of 1987.

Contrary to widely held perceptions, the so-called "derivatives revolution" has made the world safer, not more dangerous. This explains the phenomenal growth of financial futures. As Miller shows, derivatives enable organizations to deal effectively with risks that have plagued them for decades, even centuries.

Praise for merton miller on derivatives

"Miller is one of the clearest thinkers of our time. Once again, he provides a simple, insightful, and witty analysis of an important and complex topic. This book is truly fun to read." —Kenneth R. French Beinecke Professor of Management Studies and Finance Yale University School of Management.

"Some of us trade markets; others of us observe markets; Merton Miller understands markets. As this volume demonstrates, Professor Miller is unsurpassed at cutting through fluff, misinterpretation, and even obfuscation to get to the heart of highly charged issues." —Charles W. Smithson Managing Director, CIBC Wood Gundy.

"Vintage Merton Miller: zesty writing and forcefully communicated ideas, not only on derivatives, but on a wide range of topics in financial markets. This is no ponderous academic tome, but rather a series of entertaining, yet devastatingly analytical essays on controversial issues in finance. Great reading and great analysis." —Hans R. Stoll Walker Professor of Finance and Director of the Financial Markets Research Center, Vanderbilt University.

"I am grateful to Merton Miller for setting the record straight, once again, regarding derivatives. With his customary brilliance, Merton cuts through the fog of misunderstanding and nonsense that too often surrounds derivatives and reveals them for what they truly are: phenomenally successful and essential risk management tools." —Jack Sandner Chairman, Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

"This book brings together Merton Miller's most important works on derivatives markets. One of the most creative and analytical minds of our time, Merton is also a great writer and storyteller. This book is a must-read for anyone seriously interested in derivatives markets." —Rick Kilcollin President and CEO, Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

The phenomenon of collusive international agreements (cartels) became widespread in the 1930s. At that time, attempts to control production and prices were mainly the prerogative of multinational firms operating in the developing (then colonized) world. The "modern era" of cartels began in the 1960s, when the governments of developing nations began to participate in commodity agreements to achieve increases and stability in the world price of their commodities. This book is principally concerned with the modern era of cartels. It goes beyond the singular example of petroleum and OPEC to examine the structure of international commodity markets for bauxite (aluminum ore), cocoa, coffee, rubber, sugar, and tin, and the conditions that led to the formation of cartels in those markets during the latter half of the twentieth century. Specifically, the work focuses on four major aspects of international commodity markets: patterns of production and consumption; economic dislocations to both importers and exporters due to price fluctuations; the formation of cartels as a solution to weak and variable commodity prices; and the likely effects arising from tightening raw material markets. The book concludes with a detailed examination of what the future holds for each of the cartels, and what role technology, 24-hour market trading, and decreasing foreign direct investment in producing countries will have on the management of commodity markets.

Commodity Derivatives In the newly revised Second Edition of Commodity Derivatives: Markets and Applications, expert trading educator and author Neil Schofield delivers a comprehensive overview of a wide variety of commodities and derivatives. Beginning with discussions of commodity markets generally before moving on to derivative valuation and risk management, the author then dives into individual commodity markets, like gold, base metals, crude oil, natural gas, electricity, and more. Schofield relies on his extensive experience at Barclays Investment Bank to offer readers detailed examinations of commodity finance and the use of commodities within a wider investment portfolio. The second edition includes discussions of critical new topics like dual curve swap valuation, option valuation within a negative price environment using the Bachelier model, volatility skews, smiles, smirks, term structures for major commodities, and more. You'll find case studies on corporate failures linked to improper commodity risk management, as well as explorations of issues like the impact of growing interest in electric vehicles on commodity markets. The text of the original edition has been updated and expanded and new example transactions are included to help the reader understand the concepts discussed within. Each chapter follows a uniform structure, with typical demand and supply patterns following a non--technical description of the commodity at issue. Discussions of the physical markets in each commodity and the main exchange-traded and over-the-counter products conclude each chapter. Perfect for commodity and derivatives traders, analysts, and risk managers, the Second Edition of Commodity Derivatives: Markets and Applications will also earn a place in the libraries of students and academics studying finance and the graduate intake in financial institutions. A one-stop resource for the main commodity markets and their associated derivatives Finance professionals seeking a single volume that fully describes the major commodity markets and their derivatives will find everything they need in the latest edition of Commodity Derivatives: Markets and Applications. Former Global Head of Financial Markets Training at Barclays Investment Bank Neil Schofield delivers a rigorous and authoritative reference on a crucial, but often overlooked, subject. Completely revised and greatly expanded, the Second Edition of this essential text offers finance professionals and students coverage on every major class of commodities, including gold, steel, ethanol, crude oil, and more. You'll also find discussions of derivative valuation, risk management, commodity finance, and the use of commodities within an investment portfolio. Non-technical descriptions of major commodity classes ensure the material is accessible to everyone while still in-depth and rigorous enough to deliver key information on an area central to global finance. Ideal for students and academics in finance, Commodity Derivatives is an indispensable guide for commodity and derivatives traders, analysts, and risk managers who seek a one-volume resource on foundational and advanced topics in commodity markets and their associated derivatives.

"This is the book on porcelain we have been waiting for. . . . A remarkable achievement."-Edmund de Waal, author of The Hare with Amber Eyes A sweeping cultural and economic history of porcelain, from the eighteenth century to the present Porcelain was invented in medieval China-but its secret recipe was first reproduced in Europe by an alchemist in the employ of the Saxon king Augustus the Strong. Saxony's revered Meissen factory could not keep porcelain's ingredients secret for long, however, and scores of Holy Roman princes quickly founded their own mercantile manufactories, soon to be rivaled by private entrepreneurs, eager to make not art but profits. As porcelain's uses multiplied and its price plummeted, it lost much of its identity as aristocratic ornament, instead taking on a vast number of banal, yet even more culturally significant, roles. By the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, it became essential to bourgeois dining, and also acquired new functions in insulator tubes, shell casings, and teeth. Weaving together the experiences of entrepreneurs and artisans, state bureaucrats and female consumers, chemists and peddlers, Porcelain traces the remarkable story of "white gold" from its origins as a princely luxury item to its fate in Germany's cataclysmic twentieth century. For three hundred years, porcelain firms have come and gone, but the industry itself, at least until very recently, has endured. After Augustus, porcelain became a quintessentially German commodity, integral to provincial pride, artisanal industrial production, and a familial sense of home. Telling the story of porcelain's transformation from coveted luxury to household necessity and flea market staple, Porcelain offers a fascinating alternative history of art, business, taste, and consumption in Central Europe.

The collapse of Souq Al-Manakh in Kuwait in August 1982 was the most spectacular financial crash of recent years. The market had developed as a parallel stock exchange dealing in the shares of Gulf companies not resident in Kuwait. Fuelled by manic speculation, the market grew at a phenomenal rate throughout 1981 and early 1982. Inexperienced investors gambled huge sums on the shares of shell companies promoted largely for share speculation. At the height of the market US$92 billion was outstanding on nearly 30,000 postdated cheques, the usual form of payment used in the market. The financial crisis created by the collapse of the Souq Al-Manakh threatened the stability of Kuwait. The government was forced to intervene and absorb the major part of the loss. This book, first published in 1986, traces the growth of the stock market and analyses its collapse. It also discusses in detail the wider impact of this debacle on the economic life of the Gulf.

For undergraduate investment courses. The core concepts and tools students need to make informed investment decisions Fundamentals of Investing uses practical, hands-on applications and examples to introduce the topics and techniques used by both personal investors and money managers. The text focuses on both individual securities and portfolios, teaching students to consider the risk and return of different types of investments and how to use this knowledge to achieve financial goals. A consistent framework centered around learning objectives keeps readers focused in each chapter while a conversational tone makes the language, concepts, and strategies accessible to students. With new topics and features added to the 14th Edition, Global Edition, the text remains up-to-date and relevant, so students leave the course equipped to develop, implement, and monitor a successful investment program.

'John is a hero to many private investors in the UK. By tucking money away year after year, and choosing his investments wisely, he has accumulated a portfolio worth more than GBP1 million.' The Motley Fool 'I'm a big fan of the writings of John Lee. John Lee moves the market.' Monevator 'Lord (John) Lee of Trafford was one of the first UK investors to build an ISA portfolio worth more than GBP1 million, reaching that landmark in 2003.' Daily Telegraph, March 2012 John Lee is one of the UK's most successful private investors. Beginning with an investment pot of GBP125,000 in the early 1980s, by 2003 he had turned this into a thriving portfolio of over GBP1 million, and it has significantly increased in value since then. Using efficient investment methods, as well as pursuing a winning 'buy and hold' strategy, he was the UK's first ISA millionaire. In How to Make a Million - Slowly, John Lee offers invaluable lessons that will help you make the right decisions about your investments. Explaining why an unhurried portfolio is the best and most sustainable strategy for growth, you will learn how to spot opportunities, research and monitor the market, work with management and above all, make money.

The collapse of Souq Al-Manakh in Kuwait in August 1982 was the most spectacular financial crash of recent years. The market had developed as a parallel stock exchange dealing in the shares of Gulf companies not resident in Kuwait. Fuelled by manic speculation, the market grew at a phenomenal rate throughout 1981 and early 1982. Inexperienced investors gambled huge sums on the shares of shell companies promoted largely for share speculation. At the height of the market US$92 billion was outstanding on nearly 30,000 postdated cheques, the usual form of payment used in the market. The financial crisis created by the collapse of the Souq Al-Manakh threatened the stability of Kuwait. The government was forced to intervene and absorb the major part of the loss. This book, first published in 1986, traces the growth of the stock market and analyses its collapse. It also discusses in detail the wider impact of this debacle on the economic life of the Gulf.

At a time when the world is grappling with rising food and energy prices and climate change, "Living in a Material World" provides an insight into some of the contributing factors behind these challenges. The emergence of new consumers in China, India, Russia and the Middle East has added formidable competition to the natural resources that have been taken for granted in the developed world.

Everything we consume involves the use of metals, fossil fuels or agriculture. Our high tech 'lifestyles' depend on the secure supply of these raw materials which we take from planet earth and use to make our lives more comfortable, more productive or more manageable. The effect of this increasing global demand for commodities has pushed up prices of materials from oil and copper to corn and wheat; forcing consumers to pay more for the many 'necessities' of life, from a loaf of bread to electricity bills.

Since the commodity boom has unfolded, commodities have gone from the back page of the newspaper to the front; with more and more headlines about record food and oil prices, dire climate change warnings, energy security and China's demand for more raw materials.

This era of high oil and food prices is no passing phase: The supply of many key natural resources is stretched to the limit. But what is the real cost?

"Living in a Material World" makes the link between raw materials and the consumer, and shows how they are relevant to everybody, everyday - now more so than at any time since the last oil shock nearly three decades ago. A unique insight into this 'once in a generation' boom, the book shows how the increasing value of commodities is impacting on consumers and investors, inways we are only just beginning to understand.

""It was a great pleasure to read this book which provides an essential background to understanding commodities for anybody interested in understanding them more closely. It is so rare to see all the essential elements brought together in one book.""

Chris Brodie, Krom River Partners LLP

""Kevin Morrison set out to write a book about the daily relevance that raw materials have for the ordinary consumer. He has achieved his objective par excellence. The subject matter has been comprehensively researched and well documented - yet the writer has avoided using complicated technical language. The style of the book is more in tune with a novel and the main topics are treated with a special sense of humour. I would readily recommend this work to anyone interested in how global energy issues have a direct affect on us all.""

Mehdi Varzi, President, Varzi Energy, London

First published in 1986, this book discusses many important aspects of the theory and practice of Futures Markets. It describes how they, at the time, grew to be an increasingly important feature of the world's major financial centres. Indeed, they adopted the role of being efficient forward pricing mechanisms and this was reflected by the interest of economists in the study of risk, uncertainty and information. Here, the contributors focus on areas that were of concern in the late 1980s such as feasibility, forward pricing and returns, and the modelling of price determination in Futures Markets. Evidence is drawn from twenty-five different commodities representing all the major commodity groups; and from all the world's major centres of Futures Trading.

This fascinating book is loaded with practical information designed to help you in the commodity market. The author's method...proven by his million dollar success...does not involve complicated math or subjective evaluation. There are two completely systematic methods; %R and Momentum. The essence fo these methods is that they tell you if the super powers are long or short; when the super powers expect a major move to start; what commodities are in true bull or bear markets; when to start buying and when to sell for gargantuan profits. This book is a must if you're a stock or commodity trader. It will expose to you an exciting new approach to trading and thinking--the same approach that has made Larry Williams a millionaire.

First published in 1972, this book provides an important critical review on the theory of futures trading. B. A. Goss looks at the work and ideas of Keynes and Hicks on futures, and considers how these have also been developed by Kaldor. He discusses the evolution of the concept of hedging in the context of buying forward into the markets, and considers theories of market and individual equilibrium. Goss draws on the work of other economists in this field, including Stein, Telser, Peston and L. L. Johnson, in order to illustrate the development of theory in futures trading. The book includes fifteen figures that illustrate diagrammatically the concepts involved, and the concluding section contains a series of problems for examination by the student.

Covers all the major commodity markets, their products, applications and risks Learn how to invest, hedge and trade in the related physical, equities and derivatives markets Commodities such as oil and gas, food and water, solar and wind power, metals and minerals, animals and fish have become a genuine asset class alongside bonds, equities, and foreign exchange. Mastering the Commodities Markets is an introduction to both the general commodity markets and to specific products: precious metals, oil and other hydrocarbons, rare earth elements, aqua and agriculture, alternative energy and carbon and environmental commodities. Beginning with the basics of commodities and how they have developed as an asset class in their own right, the book then introduces key commodities chapter by chapter, looking at the background and context of each product, their origins and manufacture, key market participants, pricing structures and patterns, risks and how to trade, hedge and use indices. Mastering Commodities Markets includes: Commodity prices and their effect on financial markets Financial and non-financial market participants Economics of commodities, pricing mechanics and markets Trading, hedging, arbitrage and investing Commodity Indices

Praise for Pattern, Price & Time Second Edition

"Jim's breadth of knowledge spans futures, Forex, stocks, Gann, charting, price patterns, and the list goes on and on. He is a valued contributor to the TraderPlanet.com community and this book further demonstrates his unwavering commitment to educating traders to help them become more successful."
--Lane J. Mendelsohn, Publisher, TraderPlanet.com

"James Hyerczyk provides an illuminating guide to the fascinating world of Gann Theory and the combined analysis of price, pattern, and time. This book is very interesting from both a historical and practical technical perspective."
--Dan Blystone, Editor, TradersLog.com

"I have known James Hyerczyk since 1991. I have always valued W. D. Gann's methods. Reading Jim's book, Pattern, Price & Time, Second Edition is a good way to get started in learning the concepts of Gann's methodology. I highly recommend this book."

---Michael Popilchak, Director of Sales & Marketing, The Sweet Futures Division of Rosenthal Collins Group LLC

"Hunting out good opportunities involves good tracking. Jim has taken his vast experience with Gann's proven technical analysis, to show the savvy investor the foot prints in the snow to find those successful trades. As the Chief Investment Officer of LaSalle St. Securities, I have found over the last thirty-five years that good technical analysis is invaluable."
--Jay C. Carstensen, Chief Investment Officer, LaSalle St. Securities, LLC

The shocking truth about where the markets are headed and why owning physical gold-not paper assets-is a far better strategy to building real wealth. An indispensable resource for the everyday investor, Gold Is A Better Way turns the strategies recommended by Wall Street on their head and makes the case for a return to sound investing. Adam Baratta strips away all the confusion and complexities surrounding investing and breaks down investment concepts and the simple fundamentals driving markets. He provides a roadmap for how to win at the game of investing and, more importantly, explains the "why" so readers can continue to win. Everyday investors gain tools that allow them to know with certainty they are making sound investment decisions, as well as an understanding of where to diversify investments that have historically performed well. There is a massive environmental shift happening in financial markets. Interest rates are rising and what has been very easy for investors in the past is about to become very hard. Everything people think they know about investing is being turned on its head. It's time to change investing behavior. "A fresh new voice in the world of gold . . . Baratta's book and cutting edge platform make the undeniable case why gold demands consideration in every portfolio." -ZeroHedge

Don’t spend your time worrying whether you can beat the markets: you don’t need to beat them to be a successful investor. By showing you how to build a simple and rational portfolio and tailor it to your specific needs, Investing Demystified will help you generate superior returns.

With his straightforward and jargon-free advice, Lars Kroijer simplies the often complex world of finance and tells you everything you need to know – and everything that you don’t need to worry about – in order to make the most from your investments.

In Investing Demystified you will:

• Discover the mix of stocks, bonds and cash needed for a top performing portfolio

• Learn why the most broadly diversified and simplest portfolio makes the most sense

• Understand the right level of risk for you and how this affects your investments

• Find out why a low cost approach will yield benefits whilst leaving you with a higher quality portfolio

• Understand the implications of tax and liquidity

"Trading Catalysts takes you into the market and recounts moment-by-moment price action. From an almost 14% rise in the Nasdaq following a surprise Fed rate cut to an incredible (and temporary) 22% decline in the S&P 500 futures price folliwng a single large sell order, Trading Catalysts is loaded witih real-life examples of how events move markets. Must reading for traders and investors alike." --Victor Canto, Pd.D., founder of La Jolla Economics and a columnist for The National Review "At last...an invaluable investment book that shows in detail how markets actually behaved during extreme events, times when fortunes were won or lost in the blink of an eye. This is the real world of trading and risk, not academic theory. Read, learn and prepare yourself because these types of extraordinary events will happen again." --Peter Matthews, Managing Partner, Optimation Investment Management LLC Understand the Triggers of Market Volatility-and Take Advantage of Them Actionable lessons from 25 years of major events-and the market's reactions to them Predicting the market impact of everything from Fed statements to natural disasters Separating real information from noise, major "market movers" from trivia In Trading Catalysts, Robert I. Webb examines the various factors that move markets. Webb focuses on the catalysts that spark the biggest price changes-and the greatest potential for substantial profits or losses. Using numerous real market examples, Webb demonstrates the often inconsistent response of prices to similar trading catalysts across markets and over time, the occasional significantly delayed response, and the frequent market overreaction. Whether traders bet directly on a trading catalyst, on the presumed market reaction (or overreaction) to it, or not at all, the potential impact on market prices and volatility means that all traders must pay attention to trading catalysts and the market reactions that they induce. At the very least, the prospect of significant volatility around some event may affect the timing of a trader's entry or exit of positions and may cause a trader to reduce his position size. If you're a serious trader, this book will help you understand the influence of trading catalysts and identify potential trading opportunities. Volatile financial markets create both the risk of substantial losses and the opportunity for substantial gains. Sudden jumps or breaks in prices can impart a roller-coaster-ride-like quality to trading or investing in financial markets. Trading Catalysts is the first complete guide to the events that spark large changes in prices. These include: central bank actions; ill-advised comments by policymakers; news of natural disasters; elections; certain economic reports; terrorism; company specific announcements; the unwinding of large positions by key market participants; and simple trading errors among others. The varied origin of trading catalysts means that some traders may have an edge in anticipating the market's reaction to certain trading catalysts. Numerous real market examples take the reader into the heart of the market to illustrate the direction, magnitude, speed, duration, intensity and breadthof influence of trading catalysts on market prices. Because a minute can be a "lifetime" in the world of trading, many of the detailed examples recount moment-by-moment and tick-by-tick changes in market prices. This book discusses the role that trading theses(or prevailing beliefs about market relationships), market conditions,and sentimentplay in determining how prices react and sometimes overreact to various trading catalysts over time. Trading Catalysts will help readers anticipate potential events that could spark rallies or breaks; predict situations with feedback loops that drive markets up or down; and identify situations where substantial overreactions are likely to occur. Size Matters: When key players unwind positions and move the markets The Information in Economic Reports: Rout or Rally? Uncertain market reaction to the forecast errors from economic reports Talk Isn't Cheap: When the comments of politicians and policymakers move markets Market Interventions: When governments intervene: case studies, from currencies to oil Geopolitical Risk: From elections to terrorism to wars Bubbles, Crashes, Corners, and Market Crises: Lessons from the "silver corner," the 1987 stock market crash, and the Asian Financial Crisis Quantifying the Market Impact of Natural Disasters: From earthquakes to floods to mad cow disease Fat Fingers: When trading errors and mistranslations move the market Of Straws and Camels' Backs: When trivial news sparks huge moves Preface Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Market Conditions and Sentiment Chapter 3: Talk Isn't Cheap Chapter 4: Geopolitical Events Chapter 5: Weather and Natural Disasters Chapter 6: Market Interventions Chapter 7: Periodic Economic Reports Chapter 8: Size Matters Chapter 9: Bubbles, Crashes, Corners, and Market Crises Chapter 10: The Accidental Catalyst Index

This book deals with commodity price stabilization. It explores the contemporary changes in global trade agreements and their relationship to the ongoing changes in international and regional trade structures and economic integration. It takes a wholistic, interdisciplinary approach, including economic, legal and political aspects; examines the EC and NAFTA as important trade blocs, and their impact on global economies. Investigates the Chinese approach to trade management, the oil price stabilization policies, and seabed minerals; discusses discrimination in international trade.

The interdisciplinary nature of the book is given prominence through the layout of the various parts. Part I examines the legal issues of commodity trade, investigating the debate over whether international trade agreements create hard law or soft law. Part II discusses the political economy of contemporary global trade issues, including the rise of intraindustry trade and discrimination in international trade. Part III addresses the recent trend towards regionalism and trade blocs, focusing on the EC and NAFTA, and their economic implications. Finally, Part IV presents the issues of commodity trade stabilization for minerals and oil, including both land-based and seabed commodities.

An in-depth survey of the major commodities of the world
* Profiles each commodity in detail
* Provides in-depth statistics on production
* Includes an invaluable directory
Contents:
* Introductory essays
* Covers all major agricultural and mineral products including aluminium, coal, cotton, nickel, petroleum, bananas, rice, rubber, tea, coffee, tobacco, wheat, natural gas, soybeans, zinc, lead and phosphates
* Each commodity is profiled in detail with information on physical appearance, history, uses, major markets, trends in demand, major importers and exporters
* Statistical details of recent levels of production at a global and individual country level
* Recent trends in prices with indexes of export prices
* A directory of organizations concerned with commodities.

Gaming the Market: Applying Game Theory to Create Winning Trading Strategies is the first book to show investors how game theory is applicable to decisions about buying and selling stocks, bonds, mutual funds, futures, and options. As a practical trading guide, Gaming the Market will help investors master this revolutionary approach, and employ it to their advantage.

Although game theory has been studied since the 1940s, it has only recently been applied to the world of finance. Game theory champions garnered the 1994 Nobel Prize in Economics, and, today, this theory is used to analyze everything from the baseball strike to FCC auctions. Increasingly, game theory is making its mark as a potent tool for traders. In Gaming the Market, economist Ronald B. Shelton provides a model that enables traders to predict profitability and, as a result, make effective buy and sell decisions.

Stated simply, game theory is the study of conflict based on a formal approach to decision making that views decisions as choices made in a game. Whether playing individually or in a group, each player in a conflict has more than one course of action available to him, and the outcome of the "game" depends on the interaction of the strategies pursued by each. Shelton offers real-world examples that reveal how the principles of game theory drive financial markets --and how these same principles can be used to develop winning investment strategies. Through Shelton's organized and precise explanations--he uses familiar games such as chess and checkers to illustrate his points --readers gain a solid understanding of the key principles of game theory before applying them to actual financial market situations.

Gaming the Market examines the interaction between price fluctuations and risk acceptance levels and gradually constructs a game theory model which proves that there are probability-based formulas for determining the profitability of any given trade.

With appendixes on T-Bond futures, mathematical representations of the model, and QuickBasic code for calculating relative frequencies, Gaming the Market provides a thorough overview of the rules and strategies of game theory. This indispensable reference will prove invaluable to novice and seasoned players alike.

Are the markets a game? What are the rules? Who are the players?

How can you, as a player, come up with a winning strategy?

Now, acclaimed economist Ronald B. Shelton shows you how to master the power of game theory in the first trader's guide to this revolutionary approach to investment decisions!

"It's not often that a refreshingly new idea appears in the field of trading strategies or risk management, but Ronald B. Shelton has taken pieces from game theory and betting strategies and transformed them into a new, visual way to make trading decisions. . . . He has been able to put a value on trading situations which can increase your ability to manage risk as well as clarify expectations --both essential ingredients for success." --from the Foreword by Perry Kaufman author of The New Commodity Trading Systems and Methods.

"Gaming the Market is a very welcome and most useful new guide to playing profitably in the biggest and most complex game ever devised -- speculating in the financial markets. Investors and traders who study this book will gain valuable insights into the real nature of the markets and willlearn how to play the game to win." --Thomas A. Bierovic, President, Synergy Futures.

"Ronald B. Shelton has extended the field of excursion analysis with an innovative and provocative book that is sure to be widely read--and controversial. By examining the actual distributions of price excursion, he shows a technique to estimate your odds going in on a new position, and within the context of game theory, how to evaluate those chances. All traders and analysts seeking objective bases for trading will want to read this book." --John Sweeney, Technical Editor, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine.

The phenomenon of collusive international agreements (cartels) became widespread in the 1930s. At that time, attempts to control production and prices were mainly the prerogative of multinational firms operating in the developing (then colonized) world. The "modern era" of cartels began in the 1960s, when the governments of developing nations began to participate in commodity agreements to achieve increases and stability in the world price of their commodities. This book is principally concerned with the modern era of cartels. It goes beyond the singular example of petroleum and OPEC to examine the structure of international commodity markets for bauxite (aluminum ore), cocoa, coffee, rubber, sugar, and tin, and the conditions that led to the formation of cartels in those markets during the latter half of the twentieth century. Specifically, the work focuses on four major aspects of international commodity markets: patterns of production and consumption; economic dislocations to both importers and exporters due to price fluctuations; the formation of cartels as a solution to weak and variable commodity prices; and the likely effects arising from tightening raw material markets. The book concludes with a detailed examination of what the future holds for each of the cartels, and what role technology, 24-hour market trading, and decreasing foreign direct investment in producing countries will have on the management of commodity markets.

A Handy Road Map To Making Moneyin The Commodities Market

Getting Started In Commodities

"Having already proven his success as an options strategist and expert trader, George Fontanills reveals that he actually made his start in the world of commodities and futures, and presents a book that is easily digested by the novice trader yet still holds value for experienced traders. Fontanills applies the same reason and logic that has given his options analysis its distinctive edge, covering diverse topics in relation to commodities such as futures, ETFs, and fundamental and technical analysis. Pay particular attention to the distinctive risk management approach that has become his trademark."
--John-Paul Drysdale, CEO, HUBB Financial Group

"George Fontanills brings an options guru's spin to the commodities markets. This kind of 'risk managed' perspective makes this book a must-read for any commodities trader."
--Alex Jacobson, Vice President of Education, International Securities Exchange

"Since futures are a leveraged investment, it's critical to understand the risks and rewards of trading these instruments. George Fontanills applies his risk management philosophy in this must-read book for individual investors who are interested in participating in the commodities markets."
--Christopher Larkin, Vice President, E*TRADE Securities