This study quantifies the relationships between the economies of the Unites States and Japan on an industrially disaggregated basis. It links two large-scale econometric models of the U.S. and Japan in the framework of the world model system (Project LINK). These models are useful not only for forecasts and aggregate policy studies, but also for detailed investigation of industrial changes and trade policy on sectoral output employment, trade balance, and inflation in both countries. The interactions with other parts of the world are also taken into account. Applications to policy changes and exchange rate variations illustrate the potential of the model system and provide a powerful insight into the operation of two closely integrated economies. A pioneering effort to link quantitatively the relationships between the economies of the United States and Japan, this volume will be of interest to economists and policymakers here and abroad.

In many disciplines of science it is vital to know the effect of a 'treatment' on a response variable of interest; the effect being known as the 'treatment effect'. Here, the treatment can be a drug, an education program or an economic policy, and the response variable can be an illness, academic achievement or GDP. Once the effect is found, it is possible to intervene to adjust the treatment and attain a desired level of the response variable. A basic way to measure the treatment effect is to compare two groups, one of which received the treatment and the other did not. If the two groups are homogenous in all aspects other than their treatment status, then the difference between their response outcomes is the desired treatment effect. But if they differ in some aspects in addition to the treatment status, the difference in the response outcomes may be due to the combined influence of more than one factor. In non-experimental data where the treatment is not randomly assigned but self-selected, the subjects tend to differ in observed or unobserved characteristics. It is therefore imperative that the comparison be carried out with subjects similar in their characteristics. This book explains how this problem can be overcome so the attributable effect of the treatment can be found. This book brings to the fore recent advances in econometrics for treatment effects. The purpose of this book is to put together various economic treatments effect models in a coherent fashion, make it clear which can be parameters of interest, and show how they can be identified and estimated under weak assumptions. The emphasis throughout the book is on semi- and non-parametric estimation methods, but traditional parametric approaches are also discussed. This book is ideally suited to researchers and graduate students with a basic knowledge of econometrics.

This book introduces a new approach in the field of macroeconomic inventory studies: the use of multivariate statistics to evaluate long-term characteristics of inventory investments in developed countries. By analyzing a 44-year period series of annual inventory change in percentage of GDP in a set of OECD countries, disclosing their relationship to growth, industry structure and alternative uses of GDP (fixed capital investments, foreign trade and consumption), it fills a gap in the economic literature. It is generally accepted that inventories play an important role in all levels of the economy. However, while there is extensive literature on micro- (and even item-) level inventory problems, macroeconomic inventory studies are scarce. Both the long-term processes of inventory formation and their correlation with other macroeconomic factors provide interesting conclusions about economic changes and policies in our immediate past, and present important insights for the future.

The disintegration of Yugoslavia, accompanied by the emergence of new borders, is paradigmatically highlighting the relevance of borders in processes of societal change, crisis and conflict. This is even more the case, if we consider the violent practices that evolved out of populist discourse of ethnically homogenous bounded space in this process that happened in the wars in Yugoslavia in the 1990ies. Exploring the boundaries of Yugoslavia is not just relevant in the context of Balkan area studies, but the sketched phenomena acquire much wider importance, and can be helpful in order to better understand the dynamics of b/ordering societal space, that are so characteristic for our present situation.

This book focuses on the competitive situation and policy outlook of China's provincial economy in the 13th five-year period. It begins with a general evaluation report on the country's provincial comprehensive Economic Competitiveness, followed by analyses at the international, national and regional levels, industrial and enterprise levels. On the basis of domestic and international research findings, it further enriches our understanding of provincial competitiveness, analyzes the domestic and international situation, explores new changes, new norms, new situations and new challenges concerning China's provincial economy in the past few years, reveals the characteristics and relative differences of different types, defines their internal competitive strengths and weaknesses, and provides valuable theoretical content to guide decision-making.

This book presents the principles and methods for the practical analysis and prediction of economic and financial time series. It covers decomposition methods, autocorrelation methods for univariate time series, volatility and duration modeling for financial time series, and multivariate time series methods, such as cointegration and recursive state space modeling. It also includes numerous practical examples to demonstrate the theory using real-world data, as well as exercises at the end of each chapter to aid understanding. This book serves as a reference text for researchers, students and practitioners interested in time series, and can also be used for university courses on econometrics or computational finance.

This book addresses central issues in evolutionary and Schumpeterian accounts of industrial competition, learning, and innovation. It contains a collection of twelve papers which are oriented toward exploring methodological issues in evolutionary and related scholarship. Reflecting the diversity of work in evolutionary scholarship, a range of methodologies are employed in the papers, including simulation, experiments, and econometric analysis. Some of the papers use well established models to takle new questions and problems. Others introduce entirely new approaches, which the authors indicate are still in a state of infancy and await further development. The collection attempts to raise even more interest in evolutionary economics, to provide some suggestions for future research directions, and to initiate a lively discussion of the issues raised.

This book is a comprehensive introduction of the reader into the simulation and modelling techniques and their application in the management of organisations. The book is rooted in the thorough understanding of systems theory applied to organisations and focuses on how this theory can apply to econometric models used in the management of organisations. The econometric models in this book employ linear and dynamic programming, graph theory, queuing theory, game theory, etc. and are presented and analysed in various fields of application, such as investment management, stock management, strategic decision making, management of production costs and the lifecycle costs of quality and non-quality products, production quality Management, etc.

This volume collects selected, peer-reviewed contributions from the 2nd Conference of the International Society for Nonparametric Statistics (ISNPS), held in Cadiz (Spain) between June 11-16 2014, and sponsored by the American Statistical Association, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, the Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability, the Journal of Nonparametric Statistics and Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. The 15 articles are a representative sample of the 336 contributed papers presented at the conference. They cover topics such as high-dimensional data modelling, inference for stochastic processes and for dependent data, nonparametric and goodness-of-fit testing, nonparametric curve estimation, object-oriented data analysis, and semiparametric inference. The aim of the ISNPS 2014 conference was to bring together recent advances and trends in several areas of nonparametric statistics in order to facilitate the exchange of research ideas, promote collaboration among researchers from around the globe, and contribute to the further development of the field.

The relevance of applied economic and social analysis stands or falls with the strength of the analytical tools, on the one hand, and the appropriateness of the underlying data framework, on the other hand. Whereas virtually all economic and sociological research focuses on the analytical tools, this book deals with the design of an appropriate data framework. In many countries, it is not so much a lack of data per se that is the problem. Official statistics often comprise a wealth of information, laid down in many different publications. The main difficulty then relates to the lack of integration of these statistics, so that all kinds of events that are interrelated in reality can only be studied in isolation. Of course, the lack of integration of statistics applies less to economic data, as the national accounts function as a coordinating information system for these data. In fact, an important aim of this book is to demonstrate that the basic principles of national accounts can and should be extended to a wider range of statistics, notably social and environmental statistics. For this purpose, a so-called System of Economic and Social Accounting Matrices and Extensions (SESAME) is designed and applied in this book, following its announcement in the 1993 System of National Accounts, the guidelines of the United Nations and other international organizations.

This book serves not only as an introduction, but also as an advanced text and reference source in the field of deterministic optimal control systems governed by ordinary differential equations. It also includes an introduction to the classical calculus of variations.
An important feature of the book is the inclusion of a large number of examples, in which the theory is applied to a wide variety of economics problems. The presentation of simple models helps illuminate pertinent qualitative and analytic points, useful when confronted with a more complex reality. These models cover: economic growth in both open and closed economies, exploitation of (non-) renewable resources, pollution control, behaviour of firms, and differential games. A great emphasis on precision pervades the book, setting it apart from the bulk of literature in this area. The rigorous techniques presented should help the reader avoid errors which often recur in the application of control theory within economics.

A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering

Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, "Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications" explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency.

Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility:

Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets

Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities

Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures

"Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications" is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR, one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, has been focusing on China's economic forecast and macroeconomic policy analysis, and it started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005. Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China's major macroeconomic variables. Since July, 2006, twenty-six quarterly reports on China's macroeconomic outlook have been presented and thirteen annual reports have been published. This report, the twenty-sixth quarterly report, has been presented at the Forum on China's Macroeconomic Outlook and Press Conference of CQMM on February 26, 2019. This conference was jointly held at Beijing by the CMR and the Economic Information Daily at Xinhua News Agency

This book explores the role of national fiscal policies in a selected group of Euro-area countries under the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). In particular, the authors characterize the response of output to fiscal consolidations and expansions in the small Euro-area open economies affected by high public and private debt. It is shown that the macroeconomic outcome of fiscal shocks is strongly related to debt levels. The Euro-area countries included in the investigation are Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Portugal, over the sample period 1999-2016, i.e., the EMU period. The main econometric tools used in this research are structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models, including panel VAR models. The available literature relating to the subject is also fully reviewed. A further closely investigated topic is the potential spillover effects of German fiscal policies on the selected small Euro-area economies. Moreover, in the perspective of the evolution of the Euro Area towards a full Monetary and Fiscal Union, the authors study the effects of area-wide government spending shocks on aggregate output and other macroeconomic variables during the EMU period. The closing chapter of the book considers evidence on the consequences of austerity policies for European labour markets during recent years.

This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

This book deals with microeconomic theory as it concerns general economic equilibrium and the implications for prices and resource allocation.
Students with a background in mathematics will find in this volume a broad, comprehensible overview of the ideas which have contributed to our understanding of general equilibrium.

This book fills an important gap in studies on D. D. Kosambi. For the first time, the mathematical work of Kosambi is described, collected and presented in a manner that is accessible to non-mathematicians as well. A number of his papers that are difficult to obtain in these areas are made available here. In addition, there are essays by Kosambi that have not been published earlier as well as some of his lesser known works. Each of the twenty four papers is prefaced by a commentary on the significance of the work, and where possible, extracts from technical reviews by other mathematicians.

The series is designed to bring together those mathematicians who are seriously interested in getting new challenging stimuli from economic theories with those economists who are seeking effective mathematical tools for their research. A lot of economic problems can be formulated as constrained optimizations and equilibration of their solutions. Various mathematical theories have been supplying economists with indispensable machineries for these problems arising in economic theory. Conversely, mathematicians have been stimulated by various mathematical difficulties raised by economic theories.

In this monograph the authors give a systematic approach to the probabilistic properties of the fixed point equation X=AX+B. A probabilistic study of the stochastic recurrence equation X_t=A_tX_{t-1}+B_t for real- and matrix-valued random variables A_t, where (A_t,B_t) constitute an iid sequence, is provided. The classical theory for these equations, including the existence and uniqueness of a stationary solution, the tail behavior with special emphasis on power law behavior, moments and support, is presented. The authors collect recent asymptotic results on extremes, point processes, partial sums (central limit theory with special emphasis on infinite variance stable limit theory), large deviations, in the univariate and multivariate cases, and they further touch on the related topics of smoothing transforms, regularly varying sequences and random iterative systems. The text gives an introduction to the Kesten-Goldie theory for stochastic recurrence equations of the type X_t=A_tX_{t-1}+B_t. It provides the classical results of Kesten, Goldie, Guivarc'h, and others, and gives an overview of recent results on the topic. It presents the state-of-the-art results in the field of affine stochastic recurrence equations and shows relations with non-affine recursions and multivariate regular variation.

This book examines discrete dynamical systems with memory-nonlinear systems that exist extensively in biological organisms and financial and economic organizations, and time-delay systems that can be discretized into the memorized, discrete dynamical systems. It book further discusses stability and bifurcations of time-delay dynamical systems that can be investigated through memorized dynamical systems as well as bifurcations of memorized nonlinear dynamical systems, discretization methods of time-delay systems, and periodic motions to chaos in nonlinear time-delay systems. The book helps readers find analytical solutions of MDS, change traditional perturbation analysis in time-delay systems, detect motion complexity and singularity in MDS; and determine stability, bifurcation, and chaos in any time-delay system.

This book contributes to the debate on the decoupling of emerging economies from the advanced economies with a new, empirical investigation approach. Taking counterfactual experiments performed using a time-varying panel VAR model, the author argues that over the last thirty years, emerging economies have become less vulnerable to shocks spreading from advanced economies. This resilience to external shocks has changed in a non-progressive manner over time, with phases of greater resilience followed by others of lower resilience and vice versa. This research outlines its wave-like path and presents new results that contribute to the discussion.

This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.

Contemporary economists, when analyzing economic behavior of people, need to use the diversity of research methods and modern ways of discovering knowledge. The increasing popularity of using economic experiments requires the use of IT tools and quantitative methods that facilitate the analysis of the research material obtained as a result of the experiments and the formulation of correct conclusions. This proceedings volume presents problems in contemporary economics and provides innovative solutions using a range of quantitative and experimental tools. Featuring selected contributions presented at the 2018 Computational Methods in Experimental Economics Conference (CMEE 2018), this book provides a modern economic perspective on such important issues as: sustainable development, consumption, production, national wealth, the silver economy, behavioral finance, economic and non-economic factors determining the behavior of household members, consumer preferences, social campaigns, and neuromarketing. International case studies are also offered.