This book explores new topics in modern research on empirical corporate finance and applied accounting, especially the econometric analysis of microdata. Dubbed "financial microeconometrics" by the author, this concept unites both methodological and applied approaches. The book examines how quantitative methods can be applied in corporate finance and accounting research in order to predict companies getting into financial distress. Presented in a clear and straightforward manner, it also suggests methods for linking corporate governance to financial performance, and discusses what the determinants of accounting disclosures are. Exploring these questions by way of numerous practical examples, this book is intended for researchers, practitioners and students who are not yet familiar with the variety of approaches available for data analysis and microeconometrics. "This book on financial microeconometrics is an excellent starting point for research in corporate finance and accounting. In my view, the text is positioned between a narrative and a scientific treatise. It is based on a vast amount of literature but is not overloaded with formulae. My appreciation of financial microeconometrics has very much increased. The book is well organized and properly written. I enjoyed reading it." Wolfgang Marty, Senior Investment Strategist, AgaNola AG

The book develops the capabilities arising from the cooperation between mathematicians and statisticians working in insurance and finance fields. It gathers some of the papers presented at the conference MAF2010, held in Ravello (Amalfi coast), and successively, after a reviewing process, worked out to this aim.

This book provides an introductory treatment of time series econometrics, a subject that is of key importance to both students and practitioners of economics. It contains material that any serious student of economics and finance should be acquainted with if they are seeking to gain an understanding of a real functioning economy.

Are foreign exchange markets efficient? Are fundamentals important for predicting exchange rate movements? What is the signal-to-ratio of high frequency exchange rate changes? Is it possible to define a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate that is useful from an assessment perspective? The book is a selective survey of current thinking on key topics in exchange rate economics, supplemented throughout by new empirical evidence. The focus is on the use of advanced econometric tools to find answers to these and other questions which are important to practitioners, policy-makers and academic economists. In addition, the book addresses more technical econometric considerations such as the importance of the choice between single-equation and system-wide approaches to modelling the exchange rate, and the reduced form versus structural equation problems. Readers will gain both a comprehensive overview of the way macroeconomists approach exchange rate modelling, and an understanding of how advanced techniques can help them explain and predict the behavior of this crucial economic variable.

This book employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model - a widely used economic model which uses actual data to provide economic analysis and policy assessment - and applies it to economic data on Singapore's tourism industry. The authors set out to demonstrate how a novice modeller can acquire the necessary skills and knowledge to successfully apply general equilibrium models to tourism studies. The chapters explain how to build a computable general equilibrium model for tourism, how to conduct simulation and, most importantly, how to analyse modelling results. This applied study acts as a modelling book at both introductory and intermediate levels, specifically targeting students and researchers who are interested in and wish to learn computable general equilibrium modelling. The authors offer insightful analysis of Singapore's tourism industry and provide both students and researchers with a guide on how to apply general equilibrium models to actual economic data and draw accurate conclusions.

The "Contributions to Economic Analysis" series consists of a number of previously unpublished studies. The term economic analysis is used because it covers the activities of the theoretical economist and the research worker.

This guide is for practicing statisticians and data scientists who use IBM SPSS for statistical analysis of big data in business and finance. This is the first of a two-part guide to SPSS for Windows, introducing data entry into SPSS, along with elementary statistical and graphical methods for summarizing and presenting data. Part I also covers the rudiments of hypothesis testing and business forecasting while Part II will present multivariate statistical methods, more advanced forecasting methods, and multivariate methods. IBM SPSS Statistics offers a powerful set of statistical and information analysis systems that run on a wide variety of personal computers. The software is built around routines that have been developed, tested, and widely used for more than 20 years. As such, IBM SPSS Statistics is extensively used in industry, commerce, banking, local and national governments, and education. Just a small subset of users of the package include the major clearing banks, the BBC, British Gas, British Airways, British Telecom, the Consumer Association, Eurotunnel, GSK, TfL, the NHS, Shell, Unilever, and W.H.S. Although the emphasis in this guide is on applications of IBM SPSS Statistics, there is a need for users to be aware of the statistical assumptions and rationales underpinning correct and meaningful application of the techniques available in the package; therefore, such assumptions are discussed, and methods of assessing their validity are described. Also presented is the logic underlying the computation of the more commonly used test statistics in the area of hypothesis testing. Mathematical background is kept to a minimum.

Introduction to Computational Economics Using Fortran is the essential guide to conducting economic research on a computer. Aimed at students of all levels of education as well as advanced economic researchers, it facilitates the first steps into writing programs using Fortran. Introduction to Computational Economics Using Fortran assumes no prior experience as it introduces the reader to this programming language. It shows the reader how to apply the most important numerical methods conducted by computational economists using the toolbox that accompanies this text. It offers various examples from economics and finance organized in self-contained chapters that speak to a diverse range of levels and academic backgrounds. Each topic is supported by an explanation of the theoretical background, a demonstration of how to implement the problem on the computer, and a discussion of simulation results. Readers can work through various exercises that promote practical experience and deepen their economic and technical insights. This textbook is accompanied by a website from which readers can download all program codes as well as a numerical toolbox, and receive technical information on how to install Fortran on their computer.

Financial econometrics is one of the greatest on-going success stories of recent decades, as it has become one of the most active areas of research in econometrics. In this book, Michael Clements presents a clear and logical explanation of the key concepts and ideas of forecasts of economic and financial variables. He shows that forecasts of the single most likely outcome of an economic and financial variable are of limited value. Forecasts that provide more information on the expected likely ranges of outcomes are more relevant. This book provides a comprehensive treatment of the evaluation of different types of forecasts and draws out the parallels between the different approaches. It describes the methods of evaluating these more complex forecasts which provide a fuller description of the range of possible future outcomes.

This volume is centered around the issue of market design and resulting market dynamics. The economic crisis of 2007-2009 has once again highlighted the importance of a proper design of market protocols and institutional details for economic dynamics and macroeconomics. Papers in this volume capture institutional details of particular markets, behavioral details of agents' decision making as well as spillovers between markets and effects to the macroeconomy. Computational methods are used to replicate and understand market dynamics emerging from interaction of heterogeneous agents, and to develop models that have predictive power for complex market dynamics. Finally treatments of overlapping generations models and differential games with heterogeneous actors are provided.

Numerical analysis is the study of computation and its accuracy, stability and often its implementation on a computer. This book focuses on the principles of numerical analysis and is intended to equip those readers who use statistics to craft their own software and to understand the advantages and disadvantages of different numerical methods.

The book provides an up-to-date survey of statistical and econometric techniques for the analysis of count data, with a focus on conditional distribution models. The book starts with a presentation of the benchmark Poisson regression model. Alternative models address unobserved heterogeneity, state dependence, selectivity, endogeneity, underreporting, and clustered sampling. Testing and estimation is discussed. Finally, applications are reviewed in various fields.

The book discusses the mechanisms by which securities are traded, as well as examining economic models of asymmetric information, inventory control, and cost-minimizing trading strategies.

A lot of economic problems can be formulated as constrained optimizations and equilibration of their solutions. Various mathematical theories have been supplying economists with indispensable machineries for these problems arising in economic theory. Conversely, mathematicians have been stimulated by various mathematical difficulties raised by economic theories. The series is designed to bring together those mathematicians who are seriously interested in getting new challenging stimuli from economic theories with those economists who are seeking effective mathematical tools for their research.

Figure 1. 1. Map of Great Britain at two different scale levels. (a) Counties, (b)Regions. '-. " Figure 1. 2. Two alternative aggregations of the Italian provincie in 32 larger areas 4 CHAPTER 1 d . , b) Figure 1. 3 Percentage of votes of the Communist Party in the 1987 Italian political elections (a) and percentage of population over 75 years (b) in 1981 Italian Census in 32 polling districts. The polling districts with values above the average are shaded. Figure 1. 4: First order neighbours (a) and second order neighbours (b) of a reference area. INTRODUCTION 5 While there are several other problems relating to the analysis of areal data, the problem of estimating a spatial correlO!J'am merits special attention. The concept of the correlogram has been borrowed in the spatial literature from the time series analysis. Figure l. 4. a shows the first-order neighbours of a reference area, while Figure 1. 4. b displays the second-order neighbours of the same area. Higher-order neighbours can be defined in a similar fashion. While it is clear that the dependence is strongest between immediate neighbouring areas a certain degree of dependence may be present among higher-order neighbours. This has been shown to be an alternative way of look ing at the sca le problem (Cliff and Ord, 1981, p. l 23). However, unlike the case of a time series where each observation depends only on past observations, here dependence extends in all directions.

The effects and challenges of European integration are analyzed in this book, using a wide variety of research methods. Topics covered include macroeconometric and applied general equilibrium modelling, international trade and applied econometric analysis. Various contributions focus on Europe itself and are concerned with macroeconomic management, price convergence, industrial restructuring and the environment. Extra developments in the European Community are also discussed, in relation with European integration, including world trade, regional integration and the East-European transition to a West-European style market economy. The book is dedicated to the long and prolific career of Jean Waelbroeck. It will be of great interest to both academic researchers and policymakers.

A non-technical introduction to the question of modeling with time-varying parameters, using the beta coefficient from Financial Economics as the main example. After a brief introduction to this coefficient for those not versed in finance, the book presents a number of rather well known tests for constant coefficients and then performs these tests on data from the Stockholm Exchange. The Kalman filter is then introduced and a simple example is used to demonstrate the power of the filter. The filter is then used to estimate the market model with time-varying betas. The book concludes with further examples of how the Kalman filter may be used in estimation models used in analyzing other aspects of finance. Since both the programs and the data used in the book are available for downloading, the book is especially valuable for students and other researchers interested in learning the art of modeling with time varying coefficients.

This book presents the methodology and applications of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in measuring productivity, efficiency and effectiveness in Financial Services firms such as banks, bank branches, stock markets, pension funds, mutual funds, insurance firms, credit unions, risk tolerance, and corporate failure prediction. Financial service DEA research includes banking; insurance businesses; hedge, pension and mutual funds; and credit unions. Significant business transactions among financial service organizations such as bank mergers and acquisitions and valuation of IPOs have also been the focus of DEA research. The book looks at the range of DEA uses for financial services by presenting prior studies, examining the current capabilities reflected in the most recent research, and projecting future new uses of DEA in finance related applications.

One cannot exaggerate the importance of estimating how international trade responds to changes in income and prices. But there is a tension between whether one should use models that fit the data but that contradict certain aspects of the underlying theory or models that fit the theory but contradict certain aspects of the data. The essays in Estimating Trade Elasticities book offer one practical approach to deal with this tension. The analysis starts with the practical implications of optimising behaviour for estimation and it follows with a re-examination of the puzzling income elasticity for US imports that three decades of studies have not resolved. The analysis then turns to the study of the role of income and prices in determining the expansion in Asian trade, a study largely neglected in fifty years of research. With the new estimates of trade elasticities, the book examines how they assist in restoring the consistency between elasticity estimates and the world trade identity.
The material in Estimating Trade Elasticities will be of interest to economists working in predicting the evolution of international trade and its domestic repercussions. Practitioners in the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the OECD, and Central Banks with a keen interest in international developments will benefit from the analysis in this book.

This text focuses on two key components of microeconomics - optimization subject to constraints and the development of comparative statics. It assumes familiarity with calculus of one variable and basic linear algebra, allowing more extensive coverage of additional topics like constrained optimization, the chain rule, Taylor's theorem, line integrals and dynamic programming. The book contains numerous examples that illustrate economics and mathematical situations, many with complete solutions.;"Mathematics for Economists" provides a collection of topics to complement first semester PhD microeconomics course. It contains the mathematical material necessary as background for topics covered in graduate level microeconomics courses.

This book provides a comprehensive and concrete illustration of time series analysis focusing on the state-space model, which has recently attracted increasing attention in a broad range of fields. The major feature of the book lies in its consistent Bayesian treatment regarding whole combinations of batch and sequential solutions for linear Gaussian and general state-space models: MCMC and Kalman/particle filter. The reader is given insight on flexible modeling in modern time series analysis. The main topics of the book deal with the state-space model, covering extensively, from introductory and exploratory methods to the latest advanced topics such as real-time structural change detection. Additionally, a practical exercise using R/Stan based on real data promotes understanding and enhances the reader's analytical capability.

The main objective of politicians is to maximise economic growth, which heavily drives political policy and decision-making. Critics of the maximisation of growth as the central aim of economic policy have argued that growth in itself is not necessarily a good thing, particularly for the environment; however, what would replace the system and how it would be measured are questions that have been rarely answered satisfactorily. First published in 1991, this book was the first to lay out an entirely new set of practical proposals for developing new economic measurement tools, with the aim of being sustainable, 'green' and human-centred. Victor Anderson proposes that a whole set of indicators, rather than a single one, should play all the roles that GNP (Gross National Product) is responsible for. With a detailed overview of the central debates between the advocates and opponents of continued economic growth and an analysis of the various proposals for modification, this title will be of particular value to students interested in the diversity of measurement tools and the notion that economies should also be evaluated by their social and environmental consequences.

This thoroughly revised second edition of an upper-level undergraduate/graduate text describes many major techniques of forecasting used in economics and business. This is the only time series book to concentrate on the forecasting of economic data and to cover such a broad range of topics. The key features are: explains how to specify and evaluate simple models from the time series and econometric approaches; places special emphasis on the information that is derived from the evaluation and combinations of forecasts; discusses the topics of technological and population forecasting; includes an expanded chapter on regression techniques; presents a practical forecasting project which runs throughout the text; includes an appendix on basic statistical concepts.

'An authoritative survey with exciting new insights of special interest to economists and econometricians who analyse intertemporal and interspatial price relationships.' - Professor Angus Maddison, Groningen University This book presents a comprehensive review of recent developments in the theory and construction of index numbers using the stochastic approach, demonstrating the versatility of this approach in handling various index number problems within a single conceptual framework. It also contains a brief, but complete, review of the existing approaches to index numbers with illustrative numerical examples. The stochastic approach considers the index number problem as a signal extraction problem. The strength and reliability of the signal extracted from price and quantity changes for different commodities depends upon the messages received and the information content of the messages. The most important applications of the new approach are to be found in the context of measuring rate of inflation; fixed and chain base index numbers for temporal comparisons and for spatial intercountry comparisons; the latter generally require special index number formulae that result in transitive and base invariant comparisons.