In the era of Big Data our society is given the unique opportunity to understand the inner dynamics and behavior of complex socio-economic systems. Advances in the availability of very large databases, in capabilities for massive data mining, as well as progress in complex systems theory, multi-agent simulation and computational social science open the possibility of modeling phenomena never before successfully achieved. This contributed volume from the Perm Winter School address the problems of the mechanisms and statistics of the socio-economics system evolution with a focus on financial markets powered by the high-frequency data analysis.

Features Self-contained book suitable for graduate students and post-doctoral fellows in financial mathematics and data science, as well as for practitioners working in the financial industry who deal with big data All results are presented visually to aid in understanding of concepts.

The editors are pleased to offer the following papers to the reader in recognition and appreciation of the contributions to our literature made by Robert Engle and Sir Clive Granger, winners of the 2003 Nobel Prize in Economics. The basic themes of this part of Volume 20 of Advances in Econometrics are time varying betas of the capital asset pricing model, analysis of predictive densities of nonlinear models of stock returns, modelling multivariate dynamic correlations, flexible seasonal time series models, estimation of long-memory time series models, the application of the technique of boosting in volatility forecasting, the use of different time scales in GARCH modelling, out-of-sample evaluation of the Fed Model in stock price valuation, structural change as an alternative to long memory, the use of smooth transition auto-regressions in stochastic volatility modelling, the analysis of the balanced-ness of regressions analyzing Taylor-Type rules of the Fed Funds rate, a mixture-of-experts approach for the estimation of stochastic volatility, a modern assessment of Clives first published paper on Sunspot activity, and a new class of models of tail-dependence in time series subject to jumps.
*This Series: Aids in the diffusion of new econometric techniques
*Emphasis is placed on expositional clarity and ease of assimilation for readers who are unfamiliar with a given topic of a volume
*Illustrates new concepts

Experimental economists are leaving the reservation. They are recruiting subjects in the field rather than in the classroom, using field goods rather than induced valuations, and using field context rather than abstract terminology in instructions. This volume examines the methodology of field experiments, and offers a wide array of applications of field experiments.

The methodological issues revolve around the ability of field experimenters to ensure the same degree of control that lab experimenters claim. The applications cover issues such as risk and time preferences of the Danish population, savings decisions of the Canadian working poor, differences between the social preferences of American students and workers, the effect of educational vouchers on American school children, and differences in bargaining behavior across nations. This volume serves as an introduction to the issues and applications of this new area of experimental economics.

Panel data econometrics has evolved rapidly over the last decade. Dynamic panel data estimation, non-linear panel data methods and the phenomenal growth in non-stationary panel data econometrics makes this an exciting area of research in econometrics. The 11th international conference on panel data held at Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, June 2004, witnessed about 150 participants and 100 papers on panel data. This volume includes some of the papers presented at that conference and other solicited papers that made it through the refereeing process. "Contributions to Economic Analysis" was established in 1952. The series purpose is to stimulate the international exchange of scientific information. The series includes books from all areas of macroeconomics and microeconomics.

This book addresses the need for a high-level analysis of unit roots and cointegration. "Time Series, Unit Roots, and Cointegration" integrates the theory of stationary sequences and issues arising in the estimation of their parameters, distributed lags, spectral density function, and cointegration. The book also includes topics that are important for understanding recent developments in the estimation and testing of cointegrated nonstationary sequences, such as Brownian motion, stochastic integration, and central limit theorems. It explores an important topic in time-series econometrics. It addresses the need for a high-level analysis of unit roots and cointegration. It is written by an excellent expositor.

The present book is the offspring of my Habilitation, which is the key to academic tenure in Austria. Legal requirements demand that a Ha bilitation be published and so only seeing it in print marks the real end of this biographical landmark project. From a scientific perspective I may hope to finally reach a broader audience with this book for a criti cal appraisal of the research done. Aside from objectives the book is a reflection of many years of research preceding Habilitation proper in the field of efficiency measurement. Regarding the subject matter the main intention was to fill an important remaining gap in the efficiency analysis literature. Hitherto no technique was available to estimate output-specific efficiencies in a statistically convincing way. This book closes this gap, although some desirable improvements and generalizations of the proposed estimation technique may yet be required, before it will eventually establish as standard tool for efficiency analysis. The likely audience for this book includes professional researchers, who want to enrich their tool set for applied efficiency analysis, as well as students of economics, management science or operations research, in tending to learn more about the potentials of rigorously understood efficiency analysis. But also managers or public officials potentially or dering efficiency studies should benefit from the book by learning about the extended capabilities of efficiency analysis. Just reading the intro duction may change their perception of value for money when it comes to comparative performance measurement."

This book provides new evidence on the magnitude and sources of pay inequalities between women and men in European countries and New Zealand on the basis of micro data. Particular attention is devoted to job access and workplace practices, promotions and wage growth, sectoral affiliation and rent-sharing, and unobserved heterogeneity and dynamics.

"General-equilibrium" refers to an analytical approach which looks at the economy as a complete system of inter-dependent components (industries, households, investors, governments, importers and exporters). "Applied" means that the primary interest is in systems that can be used to provide quantitative analysis of economic policy problems in particular countries. Reflecting the authors' belief in the models as vehicles for practical policy analysis, a considerable amount of material on data and solution techniques as well as on theoretical structures has been included. The sequence of chapters follows what is seen as the historical development of the subject.

The book is directed at graduate students and professional economists who may have an interest in constructing or applying general equilibrium models. The exercises and readings in the book provide a comprehensive introduction to applied general equilibrium modeling. To enable the reader to acquire hands-on experience with computer implementations of the models which are described in the book, a companion set of diskettes is available.

This book combines economic theory and design to create tools that economists can use to apply in social, political and institutional application. This book seeks to provide the necessary stepping stones in order to facilitate the diffusion and adoption of this powerful tool for studying incentive structures in economics. The book presents a number of examples, both theoretical and real-life. It also has a chapter that samples the literature that tests mechanisms away from the blackboard, in laboratories and the real world.

This book provides readers (students and applied economists) with the tools to design the rules of economics to harness the power of incentives.

This volume is the result of an Advances in Econometrics conference held in November of 2002 at Louisiana State University in recognition of Halbert White's pioneering work published in Econometrica in 1980 and 1982 on robust variance-covariance estimation and quasi-maximum likelihood estimation. It contains 11 papers on a range of related topics including the estimation of possibly misspecified error component and fixed effects panel models, estimation and inference in possibly misspecified quantile regression models, quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of linear regression models with bounded and symmetric errors and quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of models with parameter dependencies between the mean vector and error variance-covariance matrix. Other topics include GMM, HAC, Heckit, asymmetric GARCH, Cross-Entropy, and multivariate deterministic trend estimation and testing under various possible misspecifications.

THE GUIDE FOR ANYONE AFRAID TO LEARN STATISTICS & ANALYTICS UPDATED WITH NEW EXAMPLES & EXERCISES This book discusses statistics and analytics using plain language and avoiding mathematical jargon. If you thought you couldn't learn these data analysis subjects because they were too technical or too mathematical, this book is for you! This edition delivers more everyday examples and end-of-chapter exercises and contains updated instructions for using Microsoft Excel. You'll use downloadable data sets and spreadsheet solutions, template-based solutions you can put right to work. Using this book, you will understand the important concepts of statistics and analytics, including learning the basic vocabulary of these subjects. Create tabular and visual summaries and learn to avoid common charting errors Gain experience working with common descriptive statistics measures including the mean, median, and mode; and standard deviation and variance, among others Understand the probability concepts that underlie inferential statistics Learn how to apply hypothesis tests, using Z, t, chi-square, ANOVA, and other techniques Develop skills using regression analysis, the most commonly-used Inferential statistical method Explore results produced by predictive analytics software Choose the right statistical or analytic techniques for any data analysis task Optionally, read the "Equation Blackboards," designed for readers who want to learn about the mathematical foundations of selected methods

The theory of practical rationality does not belong to one academic discipline alone. There are quite divergent philosophical, economical, sociological, psychological and politological contributions. Sometimes the disciplinary boundaries impede theoretical progress. On the other hand it is an indication for the high complexity of the subject that so many divergent paradigms compete with one another, or - what is worse - live separately in a kind of splendid isolation. Decision theory in the broader sense, embracing the theory of games and collective choice theory, can help to understand practical reason in philosophical analysis. But there are interesting aspects which cannot be dealt with adequately within a decision-theoretic conceptual framework. To have both of these convictions justifies to neglect dis ciplinary boundaries and poses a problem for the orthodoxies of either sides. All the essays of this volume focus on the relation between economic rationality and practical reason and discuss different aspects of the same problem, i. e. a basic deficiency in the standard economic theory of practical rationality. But philosophical analysis would not be of much help if it just rejected the economic paradigm. It must rather help to integrate economic aspects into a broader view on practical reason."

After the transition to free economy, governments of the former Soviet republics realized that in spite of becoming a part of the shaky international economic order, their individual economic success can be assured by rational national economic policies that in addition to the fundamental law of supply and demand govern the economic mechanism sensitive to both external and internal phenomena. Originally published in Russian and now translated in English, this book by Dr. A. Ashimov and his colleagues offers a novel theory providing a numerically-justifiable approach to the solution of major economy control problems that are faced by virtually every government in the world. First, they developed and validated numerous mathematical models describing complex interactions between economic and social factors thus enabling the decision makers to foresee the outcomes of their decisions. Second, on the basis of these models the authors formulated the appropriate control problems that could be interpreted as achieving the transition to the desirable economic regimes and maintaining these regimes in spite of initial conditions and both external and internal perturbations. It should be noted that due to the inherent uncertainty introduced by the use of statistical models, the nonlinearity of the underlying phenomena and the intention to obtain the optimal solutions, the solution process becomes quite intricate and calls for the application of the most sophisticated techniques offered in advanced control theory. The authors utilized the most instrumental statistical model validation techniques; they established sufficient conditions for the existence of optimal solutions of the relevant control problems; and they skillfully combined the applications of the phase space formalism, system stability analysis, and the methods of functional analysis. Finally, they developed algorithms resulting in the optimal problem solutions, thus offering economic policy makers a dependable decision support tool. Macroeconomic Analysis and Economic Policy Based on Parametric Control offers a novel, highly mathematical approach to the solution of very realistic economy control problems. It presents a good example of the application of mathematical modeling, advanced control theory, and model-based decision making that could be adopted by researchers and graduate students specializing in economics, control, and relevant areas of research, addressing their own research problems.

This book describes a system of mathematical models and methods that can be used to analyze real economic and managerial decisions and to improve their effectiveness. Application areas include: management of development and operation budgets, assessment and management of economic systems using an energy entropy approach, equation of exchange rates and forecasting foreign exchange operations, evaluation of innovative projects, monitoring of governmental programs, risk management of investment processes, decisions on the allocation of resources, and identification of competitive industrial clusters. The proposed methods and models were tested on the example of Kazakhstan's economy, but the generated solutions will be useful for applications at other levels and in other countries. Regarding your book "Mathematical Methods and Models in Economics", I am impressed because now it is time when "econometrics" is becoming more appreciated by economists and by schools that are the hosts or employers of modern economists. ... Your presented results really impressed me. John F. Nash, Jr., Princeton University, Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences The book is within my scope of interest because of its novelty and practicality. First, there is a need for realistic modeling of complex systems, both natural and artificial that conclude computer and economic systems. There has been an ongoing effort in developing models dealing with complexity and incomplete knowledge. Consequently, it is clear to recognize the contribution of Mutanov to encapsulate economic modeling with emphasis on budgeting and innovation. Secondly, the method proposed by Mutanov has been verified by applying to the case of the Republic of Kazakhstan, with her vibrant emerging economy. Thirdly, Chapter 5 of the book is of particular interest for the computer technology community because it deals with innovation. In summary, the book of Mutanov should become one of the outstanding recognized pragmatic guides for dealing with innovative systems. Andrzej Rucinski, University of New Hampshire This book is unique in its theoretical findings and practical applicability. The book is an illuminating study based on an applied mathematical model which uses methods such as linear programming and input-output analysis. Moreover, this work demonstrates the author's great insight and academic brilliance in the fields of finance, technological innovations and marketing vis-a-vis the market economy. From both theoretical and practical standpoint, this work is indeed a great achievement. Yeon Cheon Oh, President of Seoul National University

This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new developments and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, either in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, or the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, and methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas, as well as their developments informing the mainstream. In the early 21st century, climate change and the forecasting of health expenditures and population are topics of pressing importance.

This book examines the numerous aspects of exchange rates and the dynamics of macroeconomics, focusing on the PPP puzzle, volatility, levels, with an exploration of the real exchange rate misalignment of the Central European countries single equation approach, an examination of the real equilibrium exchange rate in China, exchange rate dynamics and pass-through effects in Russia and Hungary, and structural shocks on economies.

The worlds of Wall Street and The City have always held a certain allure, but in recent years have left an indelible mark on the wider public consciousness and there has been a need to become more financially literate. The quantitative nature of complex financial transactions makes them a fascinating subject area for mathematicians of all types, whether for general interest or because of the enormous monetary rewards on offer. An Introduction to Quantitative Finance concerns financial derivatives - a derivative being a contract between two entities whose value derives from the price of an underlying financial asset - and the probabilistic tools that were developed to analyse them. The theory in the text is motivated by a desire to provide a suitably rigorous yet accessible foundation to tackle problems the author encountered whilst trading derivatives on Wall Street. The book combines an unusual blend of real-world derivatives trading experience and rigorous academic background. Probability provides the key tools for analysing and valuing derivatives. The price of a derivative is closely linked to the expected value of its pay-out, and suitably scaled derivative prices are martingales, fundamentally important objects in probability theory. The prerequisite for mastering the material is an introductory undergraduate course in probability. The book is otherwise self-contained and in particular requires no additional preparation or exposure to finance. It is suitable for a one-semester course, quickly exposing readers to powerful theory and substantive problems. The book may also appeal to students who have enjoyed probability and have a desire to see how it can be applied. Signposts are given throughout the text to more advanced topics and to different approaches for those looking to take the subject further.

The goal of this book is to assess the efficacy of India's financial deregulation programme by analyzing the developments in cost efficiency and total factor productivity growth across different ownership types and size classes in the banking sector over the post-deregulation years. The work also gauges the impact of inclusion or exclusion of a proxy for non-traditional activities on the cost efficiency estimates for Indian banks, and ranking of distinct ownership groups. It also investigates the hitherto neglected aspect of the nature of returns-to-scale in the Indian banking industry. In addition, the work explores the key bank-specific factors that explain the inter-bank variations in efficiency and productivity growth. Overall, the empirical results of this work allow us to ascertain whether the gradualist approach to reforming the banking system in a developing economy like India has yielded the most significant policy goal of achieving efficiency and productivity gains. The authors believe that the findings of this book could give useful policy directions and suggestions to other developing economies that have embarked on a deregulation path or are contemplating doing so.

The State and Metropolitan Area Data Book is the continuation of the U.S. Census Bureau's discontinued publication. It is a convenient summary of statistics on the social and economic structure of the states, metropolitan areas, and micropolitan areas in the United States. It is designed to serve as a statistical reference and guide to other data publications and sources. This new edition features more than 1,500 data items from a variety of sources. It covers many key topical areas including population, birth and death rates, health coverage, school enrollment, crime rates, income and housing, employment, transportation, and government. The metropolitan area information is based on the latest set of definitions of metropolitan and micropolitan areas including: *a complete listing and data for all states, metropolitan areas, including micropolitan areas, and their component counties *2010 census counts and more recent population estimates for all areas *results of the 2016 national and state elections *expanded vital statistics, communication, and criminal justice data *data on migration and commuting habits *American Community Survey 1- and 3-year estimates *data on health insurance and housing and finance matters *accurate and helpful citations to allow the user to directly consult the source *source notes and explanations *A guide to state statistical abstracts and state information Economic development officials, regional planners, urban researchers, college students, and data users can easily see the trends and changes affecting the nation today.

Japan is a tiny country that occupies only 0.25% of the world's total land area. However, this small country is the world's third largest in economy: the Japanese GDP is roughly equivalent to the sum of any two major countries in Europe as of 2012. This book is a first attempt to ask leaders of top Japanese companies, such as Toyota, about their thoughts on mathematics. The topics range from mathematical problems in specific areas (e.g., exploration of natural resources, communication networks, finance) to mathematical strategy that helps a leader who has to weigh many different issues and make decisions in a timely manner, and even to mathematical literacy that ensures quality control. The reader may notice that every article reflects the authors' way of life and thinking, which can be evident in even one sentence. This book is an enlarged English edition of the Japanese book What Mathematics Can Do for You: Essays and Tips from Japanese Industry Leaders. In this edition we have invited the contributions of three mathematicians who have been working to expand and strengthen the interaction between mathematics and industry. The role of mathematics is usually invisible when it is applied effectively and smoothly in science and technology, and mathematical strategy is often hidden when it is used properly and successfully. The business leaders in successful top Japanese companies are well aware of this invisible feature of mathematics in applications aside from the intrinsic depth of mathematics. What Mathematics Can Do for You ultimately provides the reader an opportunity to notice what is hidden but key to business strategy.

Spatial statistics are useful in subjects as diverse as climatology, ecology, economics, environmental and earth sciences, epidemiology, image analysis and more. This book covers the best-known spatial models for three types of spatial data: geostatistical data (stationarity, intrinsic models, variograms, spatial regression and space-time models), areal data (Gibbs-Markov fields and spatial auto-regression) and point pattern data (Poisson, Cox, Gibbs and Markov point processes). The level is relatively advanced, and the presentation concise but complete.

The most important statistical methods and their asymptotic properties are described, including estimation in geostatistics, autocorrelation and second-order statistics, maximum likelihood methods, approximate inference using the pseudo-likelihood or Monte-Carlo simulations, statistics for point processes and Bayesian hierarchical models. A chapter is devoted to Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation (Gibbs sampler, Metropolis-Hastings algorithms and exact simulation).
A large number of real examples are studied with R, and each chapter ends with a set of theoretical and applied exercises. While a foundation in probability and mathematical statistics is assumed, three appendices introduce some necessary background. The book is accessible to senior undergraduate students with a solid math background and Ph.D. students in statistics. Furthermore, experienced statisticians and researchers in the above-mentioned fields will find the book valuable as a mathematically sound reference.

This book is the English translation of Modelisation et Statistique Spatiales published by Springer in the series Mathematiques & Applications, a series established by Societe de Mathematiques Appliquees et Industrielles (SMAI)."

This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.

This book presents the latest advances in the theory and practice of Marshall-Olkin distributions. These distributions have been increasingly applied in statistical practice in recent years, as they make it possible to describe interesting features of stochastic models like non-exchangeability, tail dependencies and the presence of a singular component. The book presents cutting-edge contributions in this research area, with a particular emphasis on financial and economic applications. It is recommended for researchers working in applied probability and statistics, as well as for practitioners interested in the use of stochastic models in economics. This volume collects selected contributions from the conference "Marshall-Olkin Distributions: Advances in Theory and Applications," held in Bologna on October 2-3, 2013.

This book presents an extensive survey of the theory and empirics of international parity conditions which are critical to our understanding of the linkages between world markets and the movement of interest and exchange rates across countries. The book falls into three parts dealing with the theory, methods of econometric testing and existing empirical evidence. Although it is intended to provide a consensus view on the subject, the authors also make some controversial propositions, particularly on the purchasing power parity conditions.