A careful basic theoretical and econometric analysis of the factors determining the real exchange rates of Canada, the U.K., Japan, France and Germany with respect to the United States is conducted. The resulting conclusion is that real exchange rates are almost entirely determined by real factors relating to growth and technology such as oil and commodity prices, international allocations of world investment across countries, and underlying terms of trade changes. Unanticipated money supply shocks, calculated in five alternative ways have virtually no effects. A Blanchard-Quah VAR analysis also indicates that the effects of real shocks predominate over monetary shocks by a wide margin. The implications of these facts for the conduct of monetary policy in countries outside the U.S. are then explored leading to the conclusion that all countries, to avoid exchange rate overshooting, have tended to automatically follow the same monetary policy as the United States. The history of world monetary policy is reviewed along with the determination of real exchange rates within the Euro Area.

This book presents an empirical investigation into the relationship between companies' short-term response to capital and labor market frictions and performance. Two different kinds of performance measures are considered, namely innovation performance and firm performance. The author focuses on two major topics: first, on the relation between innovation performance and the use of trade credit. Second, on the relation between firm performance and the use of temporary employment. The use of in-depth firm-level data and state-of-the-art microeconometric methods provide the scientific rigor to this important investigation to answer the questions currently being confronted by many companies in different economies.

This book presents recent research on predictive econometrics and big data. Gathering edited papers presented at the 11th International Conference of the Thailand Econometric Society (TES2018), held in Chiang Mai, Thailand, on January 10-12, 2018, its main focus is on predictive techniques - which directly aim at predicting economic phenomena; and big data techniques - which enable us to handle the enormous amounts of data generated by modern computers in a reasonable time. The book also discusses the applications of more traditional statistical techniques to econometric problems. Econometrics is a branch of economics that employs mathematical (especially statistical) methods to analyze economic systems, to forecast economic and financial dynamics, and to develop strategies for achieving desirable economic performance. It is therefore important to develop data processing techniques that explicitly focus on prediction. The more data we have, the better our predictions will be. As such, these techniques are essential to our ability to process huge amounts of available data.

The contributors present theoretical and empirical advances on business cycles analysis with particular attention to Euro-zone characteristics. The book also identifies applications of sophisticated tools by private and public institutions involved in the analysis of economic fluctuations.

This is a practical guide to solutions for forecasting demand for services and products in international markets - and much more than just a listing of dry theoretical methods. Leading experts present studies on improving methods for forecasting numbers of incoming patent filings at the European Patent Office. These are reviewed by practitioners of the existing methods, revealing that it may not always be wise to trust established regression approaches.

In this book leading German econometricians in different fields present survey articles of the most important new methods in econometrics. The book gives an overview of the field and it shows progress made in recent years and remaining problems.

This textbook articulates the elements of good craftsmanship in applied microeconomic research and demonstrates its effectiveness with multiple examples from economic literature. Empirical economic research is a combination of several elements: theory, econometric modelling, institutional analysis, data handling, estimation, inference, and interpretation. A large body of work demonstrates how to do many of these things correctly, but to date, there is no central resource available which articulates the essential principles involved and ties them together. In showing how these research elements can be best blended to maximize the credibility and impact of the findings that result, this book presents a basic framework for thinking about craftsmanship. This framework lays out the proper context within which the researcher should view the analysis, involving institutional factors, complementary policy instruments, and competing hypotheses that can influence or explain the phenomena being studied. It also emphasizes the interconnectedness of theory, econometric modeling, data, estimation, inference, and interpretation, arguing that good craftsmanship requires strong links between each. Once the framework has been set, the book devotes a chapter to each element of the analysis, providing robust instruction for each case. Assuming a working knowledge of econometrics, this text is aimed at graduate students and early-career academic researchers as well as empirical economists looking to improve their technique.

Managers are often under great pressure to improve the performance of their organizations. To improve performance, one needs to constantly evaluate operations or processes related to producing products, providing services, and marketing and selling products. Performance evaluation and benchmarking are a widely used method to identify and adopt best practices as a means to improve performance and increase productivity, and are particularly valuable when no objective or engineered standard is available to define efficient and effective performance. For this reason, benchmarking is often used in managing service operations, because service standards (benchmarks) are more difficult to define than manufacturing standards. Benchmarks can be established but they are somewhat limited as they work with single measurements one at a time. It is difficult to evaluate an organization's performance when there are multiple inputs and outputs to the system. The difficulties are further enhanced when the relationships between the inputs and the outputs are complex and involve unknown tradeoffs. It is critical to show benchmarks where multiple measurements exist. The current book introduces the methodology of data envelopment analysis (DEA) and its uses in performance evaluation and benchmarking under the context of multiple performance measures.

Income Elasticity and Economic Development: Methods and Applications is mainly concerned with methods of estimating income elasticity. This field is connected with economic development that can be achieved by reducing income inequality. This is highly relevant in today's world, where the gap between rich and poor is widening with the growth of economic development. Income Elasticity and Economic Development: Methods and Applications provides a good example in showing how to calculate income elasticity, using a number of methods from widely available grouped data. Some of the techniques presented here can be used in a wide range of policy areas in all developed, developing and under-developed countries. Policy analysts, economists, business analysts and market researchers will find this book very useful.

Analyzing the Gross National Product (GNP) and other national economic statistics is one way to look at the financial well being of a country. Another more revealing and more interesting way is to analyze the variety and amount of goods and services consumed by citizens, businesses, and the various levels of government. The "Handbook" presents a systematic and statistical portrait of consumption and wealth, allowing readers to better understand America's economic, political, and cultural landscape. This handbook focuses on the latest statistical information available on U.S. spending habits by exploring a wide range of economic, demographic, and geographic variables.

Up-to-date coverage of most micro-econometric topics; first half parametric, second half semi- (non-) parametric

Many empirical examples and tips in applying econometric theories to data

Essential ideas and steps shown for most estimators and tests; well-suited for both applied and theoretical readers

The field of spatial econometrics has come to include the methods and models that deal with estimation and testing problems encountered when attempting to implement regional economic models. Those problems are often characterized by the difficulties associated with assessing the importance of spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. This book includes contributions on spatial proximity, spatial patterning and in particular the spatial association (dependence) contained in local map patterns.

This volume addresses important issues in economic theory and international trade with contributions from internationally renowned researchers - including some of Murray C. Kemp's many colleagues and former students.Economic Theory and International Trade begins with an examination of classical trade theory and welfare economics. It goes on to discuss international trade policy, including international trading agreements, taxation, tariffs and quotas. Attention then turns to the role of market structure in joint ventures, innovation, tariff policy and political economy. The final section is devoted to economic dynamics and international economics, with an emphasis on learning mechanisms, sustainable growth and immigration. This book will be indispensable to academics and graduate students in the area of international trade. Economic theorists and international trade specialists such as research units and researchers in government will also find this book of great interest.

Complex dynamics constitute a growing and increasingly important area as they offer a strong potential to explain and formalize natural, physical, financial and economic phenomena.

This book pursues the ambitious goal to bring together an extensive body of knowledge regarding complex dynamics from various academic disciplines. Beyond its focus on economics and finance, including for instance the evolution of macroeconomic growth models towards nonlinear structures as well as signal processing applications to stock markets, fundamental parts of the book are devoted to the use of nonlinear dynamics in mathematics, statistics, signal theory and processing.

Numerous examples and applications, almost 700 illustrations and numerical simulations based on the use of Matlab make the book an essential reference for researchers and students from many different disciplines who are interested in the nonlinear field. An appendix recapitulates the basic mathematical concepts required to use the book.

This volume discusses the latest techniques and their economic applications for modern industries like computer, pharmaceutical, banking and other manaufacturing. These industries are most important for a growing economy. Both econometric and mathematical programming techniques are analyzed so as to develop a synthetic approach. The industrial applications not only emphasize the various aspects of R&D spending, advertisement expenditure and imperfect market structures, but also assess the economic benefits of measuring some specific performance paremers in the light of policy reforms adopted in a growing economy.

National income and products estimates are used extensively worldwide. During the 1950's P. Studenski's work "The Income of Nations" became a classic on the topic. With more extensive compilations, more sophisticated applications, the results and methodology and far-reaching international agreements, the international comparability in accounts is now insured. This volume supplements the earlier research in national accounting with a historical overview that shows the development in national income and product accounts. Readers: researchers and professionals in economy, statistics and accounting.

Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments presents the elements of statistical time series analysis while also addressing recent developments in research design and causal modeling. A distinguishing feature of the book is its integration of design and analysis of time series experiments. Drawing examples from criminology, economics, education, pharmacology, public policy, program evaluation, public health, and psychology, Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments is addressed to researchers and graduate students in a wide range of behavioral, biomedical and social sciences. Readers learn not only how-to skills but, also the underlying rationales for the design features and the analytical methods. ARIMA algebra, Box-Jenkins-Tiao models and model-building strategies, forecasting, and Box-Tiao impact models are developed in separate chapters. The presentation of the models and model-building assumes only exposure to an introductory statistics course, with more difficult mathematical material relegated to appendices. Separate chapters cover threats to statistical conclusion validity, internal validity, construct validity, and external validity with an emphasis on how these threats arise in time series experiments. Design structures for controlling the threats are presented and illustrated through examples. The chapters on statistical conclusion validity and internal validity introduce Bayesian methods, counterfactual causality and synthetic control group designs. Building on the earlier of the authors, Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments includes more recent developments in modeling, and considers design issues in greater detail than any existing work. Additionally, the book appeals to those who want to conduct or interpret time series experiments, as well as to those interested in research designs for causal inference.

Features Accessible to readers with a basic background in probability and statistics Covers fundamental concepts of experimental design and cause-effect relationships Introduces classical ANOVA models, including contrasts and multiple testing Provides an example-based introduction to mixed models Features basic concepts of split-plot and incomplete block designs R code available for all steps Supplementary website with additional resources and updates

To derive rational and convincible solutions to practical decision making problems in complex and hierarchical human organizations, the decision making problems are formulated as relevant mathematical programming problems which are solved by developing optimization techniques so as to exploit characteristics or structural features of the formulated problems. In particular, for resolving con?ict in decision making in hierarchical managerial or public organizations, the multi level formula tion of the mathematical programming problems has been often employed together with the solution concept of Stackelberg equilibrium. However, weconceivethatapairoftheconventionalformulationandthesolution concept is not always suf?cient to cope with a large variety of decision making situations in actual hierarchical organizations. The following issues should be taken into consideration in expression and formulation of decision making problems. Informulationofmathematicalprogrammingproblems, itistacitlysupposedthat decisions are made by a single person while game theory deals with economic be havior of multiple decision makers with fully rational judgment. Because two level mathematical programming problems are interpreted as static Stackelberg games, multi level mathematical programming is relevant to noncooperative game theory; in conventional multi level mathematical programming models employing the so lution concept of Stackelberg equilibrium, it is assumed that there is no communi cation among decision makers, or they do not make any binding agreement even if there exists such communication. However, for decision making problems in such as decentralized large ?rms with divisional independence, it is quite natural to sup pose that there exists communication and some cooperative relationship among the decision maker

A host of internationally recognized experts have been brought together to examine one of the most important sectors in today's world economy, the information sector. The study utilizes the most recent quantitative and econometric research on the media and information sectors and their markets. Most of the work presented is from two international conferences and other invited conferences.

This book presents recent research on robustness in econometrics. Robust data processing techniques - i.e., techniques that yield results minimally affected by outliers - and their applications to real-life economic and financial situations are the main focus of this book. The book also discusses applications of more traditional statistical techniques to econometric problems. Econometrics is a branch of economics that uses mathematical (especially statistical) methods to analyze economic systems, to forecast economic and financial dynamics, and to develop strategies for achieving desirable economic performance. In day-by-day data, we often encounter outliers that do not reflect the long-term economic trends, e.g., unexpected and abrupt fluctuations. As such, it is important to develop robust data processing techniques that can accommodate these fluctuations.

A number of methodologies have been employed to provide decision making solutions to a whole assortment of financial problems in today's globalized markets. Hidden Markov Models in Finance by Mamon and Elliott will be the first systematic application of these methods to some special kinds of financial problems; namely, pricing options and variance swaps, valuation of life insurance policies, interest rate theory, credit risk modeling, risk management, analysis of future demand and inventory level, testing foreign exchange rate hypothesis, and early warning systems for currency crises. This book provides researchers and practitioners with analyses that allow them to sort through the random noise of financial markets (i.e., turbulence, volatility, emotion, chaotic events, etc.) and analyze the fundamental components of economic markets. Hence, Hidden Markov Models in Finance provides decision makers with a clear, accurate picture of core financial components by filtering out the random noise in financial markets.

This proceedings volume presents the latest scientific research and trends in experimental economics, with particular focus on neuroeconomics. Derived from the 2016 Computational Methods in Experimental Economics (CMEE) conference held in Szczecin, Poland, this book features research and analysis of novel computational methods in neuroeconomics. Neuroeconomics is an interdisciplinary field that combines neuroscience, psychology and economics to build a comprehensive theory of decision making. At its core, neuroeconomics analyzes the decision-making process not only in terms of external conditions or psychological aspects, but also from the neuronal point of view by examining the cerebral conditions of decision making. The application of IT enhances the possibilities of conducting such analyses. Such studies are now performed by software that provides interaction among all the participants and possibilities to register their reactions more accurately. This book examines some of these applications and methods. Featuring contributions on both theory and application, this book is of interest to researchers, students, academics and professionals interested in experimental economics, neuroeconomics and behavioral economics.

Scenario planning is the principles, methods, and techniques for looking forward into the future and trying to anticipate and influence what is to come next. This book provides students and line managers in organizations with the means to create better scenarios and to use them to create winning business strategies. The purpose is to shed new light on scenarios and scenario-like thinking in organizations for managers at every level within a company. The book covers scenarios such as: economic outlooks; political environments; acquisitions; downsizing, and more.