This study evaluates the 1927 Great Mississippi Flood and its impact on both the 1928 and 1932 presidential elections. Herbert Hoover surged forth to win the 1928 presidency, but would suffer the greatest presidential defeat four years later. When did people change their minds? And were they influenced solely by the Great Depression or was there something else? Natural disasters and environmental crises offer both opportunities and threats for a presidential candidate. Challenger and incumbent must weave through a delicate maze of policy conundrums to garner national support. Today, the novel virus COVID-19 has altered modern society. Policy and medical experts are scrambling to develop a vaccine. Undoubtedly, economic, social, and political landscapes are being redefined, including their impact on presidential elections. Thus, a seminal question surfaces: How do force majeure events impact a political campaign? Other studies have yielded general assessments regarding presidential decision making during unforeseen events, notably with 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina. This book offers a vanguard approach by applying a historical lens and seeking to test the axiom of Farley's Law. This important law suggests that peoples' minds are made up at least six months before a national election and no matter how poorly situations develop, party allegiance is supreme.

Political parties are crucial to British democracy, providing the foundations for mobilising voters. Their constituency branches are key links between voters and Parliamentary candidates and their activities require two vital resources - people and money. Much has been written on the decline of party membership but far less on money. In this much-needed new book, Ron Johnston and Charles Pattie use the latest research and hitherto unpublished material to explore financial differences across the UK's three main parties in the four years leading up to the 2010 General Election. They look at how much local parties raise for election campaigns and find that the more money candidates spend then, the better their performance. Analyses of their annual accounts, however, show that many local parties are unable to raise all of the money that they are entitled to spend on such campaigns. This reveals an unhealthy picture of grassroots party organisation in which the capacity to engage effectively with many voters is concentrated in a relatively small number of constituencies and is likely to remain so. This timely and essential book will make a major contribution to the literature on British elections and parties, especially to continuing debates regarding party funding. It will make important reading for academics, students, politicians, civil servants and others interested in this topic.

Rethinking Arab Democratization unpacks and historicizes the rise of Arab electoralism, narrating the story of stalled democratic transition in the Arab Middle East. It provides a balance sheet of the state of Arab democratization from the mid-1970s up to 2008. In seeking to answer the question of how Arab countries democratize and whether they are democratizing at all, the book pays attention to specificity, highlighting the peculiarities of democratic transitions in the Arab Middle East. To this end, it situates the discussion of such transitions firmly within their local contexts, but without losing sight of the global picture, namely, the US drive to control and democratize' the Arab World. Rethinking Arab Democratization rejects exceptionalism', foundationalism', and Orientalism', by showing that the Arab World is not immured from the global trend towards political liberalization. But by identifying new trends in Arab democratic transitions, highlighting their peculiarities and drawing on Arab neglected discourses and voices, it pinpoints the contingency of some of the arguments underlying Western theories of democratic transition when applied to the Arab setting.
Oxford Studies in Democratization is a series for scholars and students of comparative politics and related disciplines. Volumes concentrate on the comparative study of the democratization process that accompanied the decline and termination of the cold war. The geographical focus of the series is primarily Latin America, the Caribbean, Southern and Eastern Europe, and relevant experiences in Africa and Asia. The series editor is Laurence Whitehead, Official Fellow, Nuffield College, Oxford University.

Although the phenomenon of authoritarian elections has been a focal point for the literature on authoritarian institutions for more than a decade, our understanding of the effect of authoritarian elections is still limited. Combining evidence from cross-national studies with studies on selected cases relying on recent field work, this book suggests a solution to the "paradox of authoritarian elections". Rather than focusing on authoritarian elections as a uniform phenomenon, it focuses on the differing conditions under which authoritarian elections occur. It demonstrates that the capacities available to authoritarian rulers shape the effect of elections and high levels of state capacity and control over the economy increase the probability that authoritarian multi-party elections will stabilize the regime. Where these capacities are limited, the regime is more likely to succumb in the face of elections. The findings imply that although multi-party competition and state strength may be important prerequisites for democracy, they can under some circumstances obstruct democratization by preventing the demise of dictatorships. This text will be of key interest to scholars, students and practitioners of democratization, and to those who study autocracy and electoral authoritarianism, as well as comparative politics more broadly.

This book provides an innovative analysis and interpretation of the overall trajectory of the Western European radical left from 1989 to 2015. After the collapse of really existing communism, this party family renewed itself and embarked on a recovery path, seeking to fill the vacuum of representation of disaffected working-class and welfarist constituencies created by the progressive neoliberalisation of European societies. The radical left thus emerged as a significant factor of contemporary political life but, despite some electoral gains and a few recent breakthroughs (SYRIZA in Greece, PODEMOS in Spain), it altogether failed to embody a credible alternative to neoliberalism and to pave the way for a turn to a different developmental model. This book investigates why this was the case, combining aggregate (17 countries), case study (Germany, Italy, and France), and comparative methods. It accurately charts the evolution of the nature, strength, cohesion, and influence of the Western European radical left, offering new insights in explaining its behaviour, success, and limits. It is essential reading for scholars, students, and activists interested in the radical left and in contemporary European politics.

This book answers the question why London has been a stronghold for the Labour Party for relatively long periods of the last century and continues to be so to this day to an extent that surprises contemporaries. The book draws on evidence from history and political sociology as well as the personal experience of the author in London local government during the 1980s. It argues that while changes in the London economy, plus the ability of the party to forge cross-class alliances, can go some way to explain the success of the Labour Party in London, a range of other demographic and social factors need to be taken into account, especially after the year 2000. These include the size of London's growing black and ethnic minority communities; higher concentrations of well-educated younger people with socially liberal values; the increasing support of the middle-classes; the impact of austerity after 2008; and the degree of poverty in London compared to non-metropolitan areas. This book will be of key interest to readers interested in the history of the Labour Party, the politics of London, Socialist politics/history, British politics/history, government, political sociology, and urban studies.

Turnout! offers strategies for "emergency elections," like the 2020 races, and addresses the nuts-and-bolts for civic groups and individuals to effectively turn out the vote. Indeed, few elections in recent history represent the kind of apocalyptic turning point for our planet and democracy as the present one. Turnout! is both a creative work of political vision combined with a detailed manual for turning out millions of new voters. Participation at local, state, and federal levels will have an outsized impact on the future of democracy and life itself. The elections also provide an opportunity to power-up social movements that can re-frame and re-define civic participation in an age of extreme inequality, climate change, and pandemics. Contributors include powerful movement leaders Maria Teresa Kumar (Voto Latino), Aimee Allison (She the People), Winona LaDuke (Honor the Earth), and Matt Nelson (Presente.org); leading public officials advocating greater voter engagement like Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley and Wisconsin Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, and councilors Helen Gym and Nikki Fortunato Bas. Turnout! reveals strategies and real-world tactics to mobilize millions of discouraged, apathetic, or suppressed voters, including women, low-income, Indigenous, Black, Latinx, Asian, LGBTQIA+, student and youth, and working-class voters.

Turnout! offers strategies for "emergency elections," like the 2020 races, and addresses the nuts-and-bolts for civic groups and individuals to effectively turn out the vote. Indeed, few elections in recent history represent the kind of apocalyptic turning point for our planet and democracy as the present one. Turnout! is both a creative work of political vision combined with a detailed manual for turning out millions of new voters. Participation at local, state, and federal levels will have an outsized impact on the future of democracy and life itself. The elections also provide an opportunity to power-up social movements that can re-frame and re-define civic participation in an age of extreme inequality, climate change, and pandemics. Contributors include powerful movement leaders Maria Teresa Kumar (Voto Latino), Aimee Allison (She the People), Winona LaDuke (Honor the Earth), and Matt Nelson (Presente.org); leading public officials advocating greater voter engagement like Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley and Wisconsin Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, and councilors Helen Gym and Nikki Fortunato Bas. Turnout! reveals strategies and real-world tactics to mobilize millions of discouraged, apathetic, or suppressed voters, including women, low-income, Indigenous, Black, Latinx, Asian, LGBTQIA+, student and youth, and working-class voters.

For a long time analyses of political parties were framed within the usual context of democracy and of the historical transformation of the forms of democratic government. More recently several authors, among which eminently Peter Mair, progressively began to question the relationship between the normative definition of democratic government and the actual operation of parties. These new concerns are well epitomized by the tension between 'responsiveness' and 'responsibility' that gives the title to this book. While classic democratic theory sees as desirable that parties in government (and in opposition, too) are sympathetically responsive to their supporters first and more generally to public opinion and, at the same time, responsible toward the internal and international systemic constraints and compatibilities, these two roles seem to have become more difficult to reconcile and even increasingly incompatible. The chapters of this book explore the tensions between responsiveness and responsibility decomposing the international sources from the domestic sources and discussing the options and the possibilities for political parties to continue to play the role of provider of political stability in rapidly changing domestic and international environments. This book was published as a special issue of West European Politics.

The Four Faces of the Republican Party clearly describes how Republican Presidential nominating contests unfold. Its focus on party factions allows readers to understand the process and to predict who the eventual nominee will be. In particular, the authors explore why a conservative party always nominates candidates favored by the party's establishment and why evangelical conservatives always emerge as one of the two final contenders for the nomination. This book is essential reading for anyone - professor, student, journalist, consultant, or candidate - who wishes to understand, report on, or influence a Republican Presidential nomination contest.

The 2020 presidential selection process is already underway. As the political parties finalize their nominating rules and the states jostle for an advantageous contest date, potential challengers are being identified and sized up by party insiders. Once again, media and popular attention will be disproportionately focused on the candidates' performance in the first and earliest of the state nominating contests-and on how quickly the sequence of primaries and caucuses winnows the field and identifies the presumptive nominees. But what are the implications of a sequential and front-loaded nominating calendar that gives some voters outsized influence while leaving many others with a constrained choice-or no choice-in the selection of their party's presidential nominee? Reforming the Presidential Nominating Process: Front-Loading's Consequences and the National Primary Solution critiques the contemporary nominating process from the perspective of voters and their right to effectively participate in their parties' selection of a presidential nominee. Employing both a common-sense and legal, rights-based framework to invite a constitutionally grounded conversation on the legitimacy of the current presidential nominating process, Lisa K. Parshall argues that timing of participation in the nomination goes hand-in-hand with the right to choose a candidate and the fairest way to restore the promise of meaningful and timely participation for all voters is by adopting a same-day national primary. Viewed from the party membership perspective, this work illuminates the fundamental interests at stake that should be considered in any potential reform of the presidential nominating system.

The sprawling nominating process is the critical first step every four years in the election of the president. It is where the field of contenders is narrowed from a plethora of aspirants to the two finalists that carry the banners of the Democratic and Republican parties into the fall campaign. In a democracy such as ours, the voters should be major players in this process. Yet while 100 million or more Americans regularly participate in the election of the president, rarely does more than a third that number vote in the presidential primaries and caucuses that nominate the candidates. And only a small percentage of these voters have a truly meaningful voice - the fortunate few in Iowa, New Hampshire and a handful of other early voting states that for all practical purposes decide for the rest of the nation who the nominees will be. The thrust of this book is to discuss how we as a nation got to this point, how the nominating process currently works, how that compares to other countries, and how our process might be changed to give a more meaningful voice to a much larger number of voters.

This book examines the increasing territorialisation of party competition and the relaxation of unitarian rule through devolution, presenting a long-term analysis of electoral developments in the United Kingdom since the end of the Second World War. Subsequently, the book looks into the undermining of the traditional majoritarian mode of British government as a result. It analyzes the significant role of these long-term developments and their detrimental effect on the parliament's ability to resolve issues like the Scottish Independence Referendum or the UK's vote to leave the European Union, and it addresses their underlying causes. The author additionally reconnects these electoral developments to the changing nature of devolution and shows how the deepening of devolution accelerates the negative electoral consequences for the British system of government. Finally, the book shows why the British Labour Party is turning more and more into a long-term minority party as a result of these developments. The book is a must-read for scholars, students and policy-makers, interested in a better understanding of comparative politics and devolution in general, as well as in the more specific case of the United Kingdom's electoral system.

Political parties are crucial to British democracy, providing the foundations for mobilising voters. Their constituency branches are key links between voters and Parliamentary candidates and their activities require two vital resources - people and money. Much has been written on the decline of party membership but far less on money. In this much-needed new book, Ron Johnston and Charles Pattie use the latest research and hitherto unpublished material to explore financial differences across the UK's three main parties in the four years leading up to the 2010 General Election. They look at how much local parties raise for election campaigns and find that the more money candidates spend then, the better their performance. Analyses of their annual accounts, however, show that many local parties are unable to raise all of the money that they are entitled to spend on such campaigns. This reveals an unhealthy picture of grassroots party organisation in which the capacity to engage effectively with many voters is concentrated in a relatively small number of constituencies and is likely to remain so. This timely and essential book will make a major contribution to the literature on British elections and parties, especially to continuing debates regarding party funding. It will make important reading for academics, students, politicians, civil servants and others interested in this topic.

Facebook, Twitter and Instagram create new ways to market political campaigns and new channels for candidates and voters to interact. This volume investigates the role and impact of social media in the 2016 U.S. election, focusing specifically on the presidential nominating contest. Through case studies, survey research and content analysis, the researchers employ both human and machine coding to analyse social media text and video content. Together, these illustrate the wide variety of methodological approaches and statistical techniques that can be used to probe the rich, vast stores of social media data now available. Individual chapters examine what different candidates posted about and which posts generated more of a response. The analyses shed light on what social media can reveal about campaign messaging strategies and explore the linkages between social media content and their audiences' perceptions, opinions and political participation. The findings highlight similarities and differences among candidates and consider how continuity and change are manifest in the 2016 election. Finally, taking a look forward, the contributors consider the implications of their work for political marketing research and practice. The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of the Journal of Political Marketing.

During the run-up to the 1888 presidential election, Americans flocked to party rallies, marched in endless parades, and otherwise participated zealously in the political process. Although they faced a choice between two uncharismatic candidates-Republican challenger Benjamin Harrison and Democratic incumbent Grover Cleveland-voters took intense interest in the issues they espoused. And though Harrison became one of only four candidates to win the presidency while losing the popular vote, the lasting significance of the election was its foreshadowing of both the modern campaign and the modern presidency.

Charles W. Calhoun shows how this presidential contest not only exemplified Gilded Age politics but also marked a major shift from divisive sectional rhetoric to an emphasis on voters' economic concerns. Calhoun first explores Cleveland's rise to the presidency and explains why he turned to economic issues, especially tariff reduction, in framing his bid for reelection. He then provides a detailed analysis of the raucous Republican national convention and describes Harrison's effective front porch campaign, in which he proclaimed his views almost daily to visiting voters and reporters. Calhoun also explores the role of party organizations, business interests, labor, women, African Americans, and third parties in the campaign; discusses alleged fraud in the election; and analyzes the Democrats' suppression of black votes in the South.

The 1888 campaign marked an important phase in the evolution of American political culture and augured significant innovations in American politics and governance. The Republicans' performance, in particular, reflected the party's future winning strategies: emphasis on economic development, personal participation by the presidential candidate, a well-financed organization, and coordination with beneficiaries of the party's agenda.

Harrison set important precedents for campaigning and then, once in office, fashioned new leadership strategies and governing techniques-emphasizing legislative intervention, extensive travel, and a focus on foreign affairs-that would become the stock-in-trade of later presidents. His Republican successors built upon these transformations, making the GOP the majority party for a generation and putting the presidency at the center of American governance-where it has remained ever since.

In this book, Amos Kiewe explores the story of the 1824 Presidential election, when the House of Representatives elected the president after no candidate won outright the majority of the Electoral College. Though most in the nation assumed that Andrew Jackson, who won the popular vote and the plurality of the Electoral College, would be elected the presidency by the House, Kiewe demonstrates how maneuvering, vote trading, and special favors dictated a different outcome. Through inspecting speeches, statements, private letters, and published accounts, Kiewe simultaneously intersects rhetoric, history, and politics as variables that help to tell the story of the 1824 presidential election. Scholars of communication, political science, and history will find this book of particular interest.

This book assesses the impact of presidential character on the popularity, productivity, and ethics of contemporary presidents. Through comparative analyses, author Lara Brown demonstrates that the character of a president's leadership does not change in office and that the success of future presidents can be evaluated before they step into the White House. She traces the rise of "amateur outsiders," like Donald Trump, and asserts the need for systemic reform and cultural reassessment of presidential character. Intended for students and scholars of the presidency, this book also holds appeal for general readers who seek understanding of past and future presidential elections.

The 2018/2019 Indonesian elections were among the most divisive elections in Indonesian history, where identity politics and ethno-religious sentiments were prevalent not just during the 2019 presidential election, but also during the 2018 regional executive elections as well. Contributors to this edited volume analysed the dynamics between identity politics, national and local politics and produce findings and insights that will inform prospective readers regarding the future of identity politics and how it may affect Indonesian politics for the intermediate future. This book is an up-to-date study addressing contemporary Indonesian politics that should be read by Indonesian Studies and more broadly Southeast Asian Studies specialists. It is also a useful reference for those studying Electoral Politics, Religion and Politics, and Comparative Politics.

Disinformation has recently become a salient issue, not just for researchers but for the media, politicians, and the general public as well. Changing circumstances are a challenge for system and societal resilience; disinformation is also a challenge for governments, civil society, and individuals. Thus, this book focuses on the post-truth era and the online environment, which has changed both the ways and forms in which disinformation is presented and spread. The volume is dedicated to the complex processes of understanding the mechanisms and effects of online propaganda and disinformation, its detection and reactions to it in the European context. It focuses on questions and dilemmas from political science, security studies, IT, and law disciplines with the aim to protect society and build resilience against online propaganda and disinformation in the post-truth era.

This book uses various concepts of 'age' to examine young people's voting behaviour in six European countries between 1981 and 2000. It addresses questions such as: what are the determinants of voting choices among young people, and to what extent are these factors different from those of adults? Through an innovative approach aimed at studying party choice with a strong empirical orientation, the author argues that age is less important in influencing voting choices than having been young and socialized to politics in a given historical period. Ultimately, values and political factors explain young people's voting choices more than social identities, which marks a change from previous generations. This book will appeal to students and scholars in comparative politics, electoral behaviour, party politics, and political sociology.

2017 marked the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome and the starting point for today's European Union. Since then, the project has indisputably come a very long way and has undergone major changes in direction. However, one constant throughout has been the central role played by France. This important milestone is used to take stock of the relationship between France and Europe. The enclosed chapters cover a broad range of issues relating to the past, present and future, investigating Franco-European relations via the optic of a wide range of debates. These include: the issue of Europe in French presidential elections the impact of the European question on the development of the two major political forces (of left and right) in France, and its role in their internal tensions; Europe as a key consideration in French macro-economic policy France's Algerian question and missed opportunities to extend 'Europe' to its North African neighbour; Charles de Gaulle's role in defining the EU's structures for transnational democratic politics. Sixty years on: France and Europe from the Treaty of Rome to the 2017 elections assess how and why Europe matters in our understanding of contemporary France, and contributes to the important and ongoing research agendas for the study of France and the European Union. The chapters were originally published in a special issue of Modern & Contemporary France.

The Nightly News Nightmare, Third Edition, examines news coverage of presidential nomination and election campaigns from 1988 to 2008. The book focuses on changes in the amount, tone, and focus of news coverage in these different electoral contexts. In addition to network news, the authors examine online news, cable television, talk radio, candidate campaign discourse in these election years. Farnsworth and Lichter find that the news media, despite the wide variety of outlets, have consistent problems in terms of fairness and focus on substantive matters rather than the horse-race reporting of the latest polls. In addition to the extensive discussion of the 2008 campaign, the third edition offers far more discussion and evidence regarding the use of alternative media, including online content, in the most recent presidential election. The authors conclude that online news had many of the same problems found in mainstream news coverage.

This project offers an in-depth look at the three 2017 elections held in Western Europe: France, Germany, and the UK. With events like Brexit and a general rise in right-wing populism across highly industrialized nations, understanding the underlying causes of increasingly extreme electoral behavior is both valuable and prescient. A highly theoretically-focused and current project, it provides a consistent methodological and analytic approach that uses election study data and primary sources to offer a complete and cogent picture of this complex phenomenon as can only found by examining the attitudes and behaviors of the most powerful of democratic participants: the voters.