How do we define an economic disaster? A difficult question. Most centuries would claim that they have had their share of disasters, but the twentieth century certainly seems to have been more prone to them than the previous one. A number of leading economists and economic historians assemble here to examine nine key disasters with international or global implications. The First and Second World Wars, the great depression, oil shocks, inflation, financial crises, stock market crashes, the collapse of the Soviet command economy and Third World disasters are discussed in this comprehensive book. The contributors subject these disasters to in-depth assessment, carefully considering their costs and impact on specific countries and regions, as well as assessing them in a global context. The book examines the legacy of economic disasters and asks whether economic disasters are avoidable or whether policymakers can learn from their mistakes. The book will appeal to a wide variety of social scientists, including those working in economic history, international relations, international political economy and geopolitics.

The modern system-wide approach to applied demand analysis emphasizes a unity between theory and applications. Its firm foundations in economic theory make it one of the most successful areas of applied econometrics. A System-Wide Analysis of International Consumption Patterns presents a large number of applications of recent innovations in the area and uses consumption data for 18 OECD countries to provide convincing evidence, one way or the other, about the validity of consumption theory. The empirical results presented in the book have a number of uses. Reliable estimates of income and price elasticities of demand are provided for 10 commodity groups in 18 countries. A feature of these results is that a number of major empirical regularities are identified that seem to hold across different periods and different countries. A System-Wide Analysis of International Consumption Patterns also presents an extensive application of recently developed Monte Carlo testing procedures - to test demand theory and the structure of preferences. The results so obtained are in stark contrast to most previous findings based on the conventional asymptotic tests. Other results presented in the book include: (i) Differences in economic variables (prices and and incomes in particular) account for observed differences in consumption patterns internationally, while differences in tastes seem to play a much smaller role. (ii) Own-price elasticities are approximately proportional to the corresponding income elasticities, a result coinciding with Pigou's law. (iii) The income elasticity of the marginal utility of income does not seem to depend on income, which contradicts the famous Frisch's conjecture.

Promoting Microfinance brings together essays and empirical work by leading researchers and practitioners in the field of microfinance. It covers key issues currently facing the microfinance industry and provides an overview of the microfinance industry in selected countries/regions, pointing to the direction in which it is heading.

Some of the fundamental tenets of conventional economic wisdom, which have had a profound impact on public policy, are challenged in this book. These precepts include the affirmation that low wages are more beneficial that high wages to the process of growth and development; convergence in terms of output per person is just a matter of time; minimum wage laws and trade unions negatively impact on the economy as a whole; pay inequality due to labor market discrimination cannot persist over time; larger firms are typically more efficient than smaller firms; and culture is of little consequence to the course of economic development. Such predictions, the author argues, are a product of unrealistic behavioral assumptions about the economic agent. In this book, the author offers a more inclusive theoretical framework and a more reasonable modeling of the economic agent. This new approach is built upon conventional neoclassical theory while incorporating the most recent research in behavioral economics. The case is made that individuals have some choice over the quantity and quality of effort which they can supply in the process of production. Even under the constraints of severe product market competition and the assumption of `utility maximizing' individuals, effort need not be maximized, especially in firms characterized by antagonistic management-labor relations. This is especially true when relatively inefficient firms can remain competitive by keeping wages relatively low - low wages serve to protect such firms from more efficient firms. Alternatively, relatively high wage firms can remain competitive only if they become more productive. Under these assumptions, higher wages and factors contributing to higher wages can advance the performance of an economy while lower wages can have the opposite effect and cultural and institutional variables, by themselves, can affect the long run productivity and even the long run competitiveness of firms and economies. In summary, this book calls for a revised approach to the study of economics from a behavioral and socio-economic perspective, with significant consequences for public policy.

Risk Analysis: Foundations, Models, and Methods fully addresses the questions of "What is health risk analysis?" and "How can its potentialities be developed to be most valuable to public health decision-makers and other health risk managers?" Risk analysis provides methods and principles for answering these questions. It is divided into methods for assessing, communicating, and managing health risks. Risk assessment quantitatively estimates the health risks to individuals and to groups from hazardous exposures and from the decisions or activities that create them. It applies specialized models and methods to quantify likely exposures and their resulting health risks. Its goal is to produce information to improve decisions. It does this by relating alternative decisions to their probable consequences and by identifying those decisions that make preferred outcomes more likely. Health risk assessment draws on explicit engineering, biomathematical, and statistical consequence models to describe or simulate the causal relations between actions and their probable effects on health. Risk communication characterizes and presents information about health risks and uncertainties to decision-makers and stakeholders. Risk management applies principles for choosing among alternative decision alternatives or actions that affect exposure, health risks, or their consequences.

Uncertain Decisions: Bridging Theory and Experiments presents advanced directions of thinking on decision theory - in particular the more recent contributions on non-expected utility theory, fuzzy decision theory and case-based theory. This work also provides theoretical insights on measures of risk aversion and on new problems for general equilibrium analysis. It analyzes how the thinking that underlies the theories described above spills over into real decisions, and how the thinking that underlies these real decisions can explain the discrepancies between theoretical approaches and actual behavior. This work elaborates on how the most recent laboratory experiments have become an important source both for evaluating the leading theory of choice and decision, and for contributing to the formation of new models regarding the subject.

Most of our daily decisions are made under uncertainty and risk, without complete information about all relevant aspects. We all constantly make such decisions, from the simplest "should I take my raincoat today?" to more serious examples, such as those on investment and portfolio decisions, holding of shares, insurance patterns, or negotiation processes. Within these situations, the bounded rationality of individuals and institutions towards risk and uncertainty is embedded. The central theory underlying this study is prospect theory, an adequate model to predict the real and most often bounded rationality of human behavior given certain incentives, preferences, and constraints.Evelyn Stommel investigates a crucial question within behavioral economics, namely the research on reference points within human decision making processes. Based on experimental investigations, she focuses three key challenges: what constitutes a reference point, the process of the formation of a reference point, and factors influencing the formation of reference points.

Cooperation in Research and Development provides an empirical and theoretical analysis of a distinct form of inter-firm collaboration in Research & Development (R&D): research joint ventures (RJVs). Of all types of cooperation, RJVs have received the most attention in both formal industrial organization and science and technology policy literature. The emerging theoretical economic literature on incentives of firms to join RJVs has not been followed by much empirical work. Cooperation in Research and Development attempts to fill the void caused by this lack of consistent data on the rate of RJV formation, RJV characteristics, and RJV member characteristics. Significant attention is paid to the role of RJVs in facilitating `virtual' firm diversification as necessary to pursue particular technological objectives. An effort is also made to blend the reported theoretical and empirical analyses with conceptual models of the process of technological innovation and models of industrial evolution in order to provide answers beyond the reach of the received economic theory. Cooperation in Research and Development should be of interest to academic economists, policy makers, and business representatives. The microeconomic issues the book deals with overlap significantly with the interests of decision makers both in government and business.

Upon hearing that Ronald Coase had been awarded the Nobel Prize, a fellow economist's first response was to ask with whom Coase had shared the Prize. Whether this response was idiosyncratic or not, I do not know; I expect not. Part of this type of reaction can no doubt be explained by the fact that Coase has often been characterized as an economist who wrote only two significant or influential papers: "The Nature of the Firm" (1937) and "The Problem of Social Cost" (1960). And by typical professional standards of "significant" and "influential" (i. e. , widely read and cited), this perception embodies a great deal of truth, even subsequent to Coase's receipt of the Prize. This is not to say that there have not been other important works - "The Marginal Cost Controversy" (1946) and "The Lighthouse in Economics" (1974) come immediately to mind here - only that in a random sample of, say, one hundred economists, one would likely find few who could list a Coase bibliography beyond the two classic pieces noted above, in spite of Coase's significant publication record. ' The purpose of this collection is to assess the development of, tensions within, and prospects for Coasean Economics - those aspects of economic analysis that have evolved out of Coase's path-breaking work. Two major strands of research can be identified here: law and economics and the New Institutional Economics.

CLAUDEJEANRENAUD NILS SOGUEL Smoking is a very common habit all over the world. The prevalence rate ranges from 20% - 40% in industrialised countries, and is dramatically increasing in the developing world. Smoking is risky and there is ample scientific evidence to support this statement. We know that smoking is a major cause of disease and premature death, in view of the fact that 3 million people die each year worldwide as a result of their smoking habit. Twenty years ago, the U. S. Surgeon General identified smoking as the single most important cause of morbidity and premature death (USDHEW, 1979). Tobacco consnmption reduces life expectancy vastly. Epidemiological research shows that people who have died from a smoking-related disease would, on average, have lived for an additional 15 years had they not been smokers (Warner, 1987). The economic analysis of tobacco consumption is a complex and challenging issue, which entails addressing many different questions. What is the economic burden of smoking and do smokers "pay their way"? How do individuals perceive their own health risks? What is the effect of the addicting properties of nicotine on the behaviour of a rational, utility maximizing individual? Lastly, what is the most effective way to discourage tobacco consumption? In this context, the assessment of the social burden of smoking using a cost-of-illness framework has played a central role since the beginning of the seventies."

The Structural Theory of Probability addresses the interpretation of probability, often debated in the scientific community. This problem has been examined for centuries; perhaps no other mathematical calculation suffuses mankind's efforts at survival as amply as probability. In the dawn of the 20th century David Hilbert included the foundations of the probability calculus within the most vital mathematical problems; Dr. Rocchi's topical and ever-timely volume proposes a novel, exhaustive solution to this vibrant issue. Paolo Rocchi, a versatile IBM scientist, outlines a new philosophical and mathematical approach inspired by well-tested software techniques. Through the prism of computer technology he provides an innovative view on the theory of probability. Dr. Rocchi discusses in detail the mathematical tools used to clarify the meaning of probability, integrating with care numerous examples and case studies. The comprehensiveness and originality of its mathematical development make this volume an inspiring read for researchers and students alike.

Young men choosing a traditional working career 189 Young women making modern choices 191 The struggles of young men versus the success of young women 192 CONCLUSIONS Changing economies, changing households 195 Jane Wheelock and Age Mariussen Summing up 195 Institutional comparisons: empirical analysis 197 Theoretical implications 201 Policy implications 204 Bibliography 207 Index 231 ix ILLUSTRATIONS Figures 1. 1 Institutional change as a theme in economics and sociology 15 1. 2 The household in the total economy 28 2. 1 The household in the production, reproduction and consumption cloverleaf 39 10. 1 Characteristics of the two extreme groups of farmers, 'sceptics' and 'radicals' 155 11. 1 Flexibility in the family economic unit 161 Tables ILl Changing employment structure in Wearside and Mo i Rana, selected years 67 11. 2 Employment change comparisons, Wearside!Great Britain and Mo i Rana/Norway, selected years 68 11. 3 Major industrial sectors, Wearside and Mo i Rana, selected years 69 11. 4 Employment in Wearside and Mo i Rana: gender and part-time! full-time breakdown, selected years 70 The degree of change in the organisation of household work 7. 1 116 Economic status categories and family succession 10. 1 150 12. 1 Economic position of young adults (16-29) in Newcastle 176 12.

Amartya Sen "Equality," I spoke the word As if a wedding vow Ah, but I was so much older then, I am younger than that now. Thus sang Bob Dylan in 1964. Approbation of equality varies not only with our age (though it is not absolutely clear in which direction the values may shift over one's life time), but also with the spirit of the times. The 1960s were good years for singing in praise of equality. The spirit of the present times would probably be better reflected by melodies in admiration of the Federal Reserve System. And yet the technical literature on the evaluation and measurement of economic inequality has grown remarkably over the last three decades. Even as actual economic policies (especially in North America and Europe) have tended to move towards focusing on virtues other than the avoidance of economic inequality, the professional literature on assessing and gauging economic inequality has taken quite a jump forward. A great many different problems have been addressed and effectively sorted out, and new problems continue to be posed and analyzed. The Contents: A Review Jacques Silber has done a great service to the subject by producing this collection of admirablyhelpful and illuminating papers on different aspects of the measurement of income inequality. The reach of this collection is quite remarkable. Along with a thorough overview from the editor himself, the major areas in this complex field have been carefully examined and accessibly discussed.

Hospital Cost Analysis provides an overview of theoretical developments in the economic analysis of production and costs in the multiproduct firm, and discusses these developments. Following a lucid explanation of the concepts of jointness, input/output separability and returns to scale, a detailed discussion of the concept measurement and classification of hospital output is provided. A fundamental dilemma confronting economists interested in estimating hospital cost functions is highlighted, viz. the trade-off between flexibility in functional form and homogeneity within hospital output categories. Empirical results on the effects of case mix, scale and utilisation, public/private ownership, and the centralised administration of hospital systems on hospital costs are presented. The implications of hospital cost analysis for public policy with respect to hospital payment schemes, including schemes based on Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs), are also considered. This book brings together the literature on hospital cost analysis with theoretical developments in the analysis of the multiproduct cost functions. It will be of considerable interest to teachers and students of health economics and health policy advisers interested in the determinants of hospital costs and the design of hospital payment schemes.

Institutional and Financial Incentives for Social Insurance provides both an empirical and a theoretical account of the main difficulties presently threatening social insurance systems in most industrialized countries. It analyzes the remedies that have been discussed and sometimes introduced and addresses many questions still left largely unresolved: Are newly implemented or proposed reforms providing the correct incentives to all participants in the system? Is the quality of service improving and, if not, what can be done? How should the budgetary problems be solved considering both intra-generational and inter-generational redistributive policies? The volume describes a number of studies of social security systems in various countries and assesses the effect of various policies, including welfare or unemployment benefits, training and other active labour market policies, the provision of pension, and competition and budget devolution in health care. It applies empirical tests to individual preferences concerning unemployment compensation, and it analyzes nonfunded and funded social security systems, the transition from one system to the other, and the willingness to pay for pensions.

Alan Charles Raul The devastating and reprehensible acts of terrorism committed against the 11, 2001 have greatly affected our lives, our United States on September livelihoods, and perhaps our way of living. The system of government embodied in our Constitution and Bill of Rights was designed to inhibit excessively efficient government. By imposing checks and balances against over-reaching governmental power, the Founders intended to promote the rule of laws, not men - and to protect the prerogatives of citizens over and above their rulers. No faction was to become so powerful that the rights and interests of any other groups or individuals could be easily trampled. Specifically, the Framers of our constitutional structure prohibited the government from suppressing speech, inhibiting the right of free association, of people, conducting unreasonable preventing (peaceful) assemblies searches and seizures, or acting without observing the dictates of due process and fair play. After September 11, there is a risk that the philosophical protections of the Constitution could appear more than a trifle "academic. " Indeed, our tradional notions of "fair play" will be sorely tested in the context of our compelling requirements for effective self-defense against brutal, evil killers who hate the very idea of America. Now that we witness the grave physical dangers that confront our families, friends, neighbors, and businesses, our commitment to limited government and robust individual liberties will of our inevitably - and understandably - be challenged.

The current debate over privacy presents some of the most complex policy-making challenges we have seen in some time. While data on consumers have long been used for marketing purposes, the Internet has substantially increased the flow of personal information. This has produced great benefits, but it also has raised concerns on the part of individuals about what information is being collected, how it is being used and who has access to it. These concerns, in turn, have led to calls for new government regulation. This study focuses on the market for personal information used for advertising and marketing purposes, which is the market affected by most of the regulatory and legislative proposals now under consideration. Unfortunately, there has been little careful analysis of these proposals and their likely consequences. This book attempts to fill this gap by addressing the following basic questions: * Are there 'failures' in the market for personal information? * If market failures exist, how do they adversely affect consumers? * Can such failures be remedied by government regulation? * Would the benefits of government regulation exceed the costs?GBP/LISTGBP The authors find that the commercial market for information appears to be working well and is responding to consumers' privacy concerns. They conclude that regulation imposed on a medium like the Internet that is changing so rapidly would have unpredictable and costly consequences. This study is a product of The Progress & Freedom Foundation's project on Regulating Personal Information: Balancing Benefits and Costs. The Progress & Freedom Foundation studies the impact of the digital revolution and its implications for public policy. It conducts research in fields such as electronic commerce, telecommunications and the impact of the Internet on government, society and economic growth. It also studies issues such as the need to reform government regulation, especially in technology-intensive fields such as medical innovation, energy and environmental regulation.

The purpose of this book is to demonstrate that it is possible to do meaningful, significant, and sophisticated analysis in social science when the variables under consideration are, given present knowledge, incapable of measurement. No effort to 'measure' the unmeasurable is attempted. Rather, techniques for model building, such as the construction of simultaneous and periodic relation systems that do not require the existence of measures are explored. In addition to presenting a methodology enabling the investigator to deal with the unmeasured, many examples are provided that illustrate how those methods may actually be used. In addition, the book addresses the following: Where has the overwhelming focus on the quantitative (often to the exclusion of the unmeasurable or qualitative) in social science in particular, and in modern societies in general, come from? How can the use of the formalizations of model building, both in the presence and absence of measurement, be justified in social science?What are the dangers of using proxy variables in general in the construction of models, and what are the dangers of treating variables that are only ordinally gauged as if they were cardinally or intervally measured? Finally, when only ordinal calibrations of some variables are available, what analytical methods may legitimately be employed to deal with them?

The aim of this book, Future of the Telecommunications Industry: Forecasting and Demand Analysis, is to describe leading research in the area of empirical telecommunications demand analysis and forecasting in the light of tremendous market and regulatory changes. Its purpose is to educate the reader about how traditional analytic techniques can be used to assess new telecommunications products and how new analytic techniques can better address existing products. The research presented focuses on new products such as Internet access and additional lines and new techniques such as hazard modeling, adaptive forecasting and neural networks. The scope of this volume includes new telecommunications products, new analytical techniques, and a review of market changes in the US and other countries. Some of the most critical questions facing the industry are addressed here, such as the impact of competition, customer churn, rate re-balancing, and early assessment of new products. The research includes a variety of different countries, products and analytic tools.

Indonesia experienced strong economic growth at greatest risk, that too would be useful for strategy formulation purposes, especially in cases in the 1970s with the help of high oil prices, a where employment protection is an important period of stagnation in the 1980s when oil prices declined and another period of strong economic objective. Finally, to the extent that policies can growth after 1986 when substantial trade and alter the probability ofsuccess or failure in coping investment liberalization enabled a dramatic with shocks, it would be useful to know which of policies is most effective and under what surge in labor-intensive manufacturing export set production. Recently, the regional financial crisis conditions. of 1997-1998 dealt Indonesia a severe shock The recent crisis in East Asia provides an from which it has not yet fully recovered. How opportunity to examine the link between industrial structure and economic resilience. The relative have its SMEs done through the twists and turns of the economy in the past quarter century? impact of the crisis by size of firm can be judged Unfortunately, the data needed to track the per in part by the effects on capacity utilization and formance of the SME sector are not as good for employment. The table below summarizes some Indonesia as for many of the other countries in results from a survey sponsored by the World East Asia.

In the Netherlands, the election programmes of the political parties are assessed for their economic impact by an independent economic bureau. The result of this analysis is published just before the elections take place. In this way, the voter will be protected against political parties that try to win the elections by making popular but unfounded financial promises. Economic Assessment of Election Programmes contains contributions of several distinguished economists and philosophers who consider the gains of this procedure to society. Does the analysis by the Netherlands' Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) raise the democratic quality of the elections? Can we really be confident in the tools of economics? The last section of this volume states the opinion of representatives of the political parties. This part also clarifies why political parties voluntarily participate in this process and how they perceive the role division between the political party and CPB.

Whether they should or not, few economists do in fact refrain from making pronouncements on public policy, although the state of the economy (both here and elsewhere) suggests that either the advice given is bad or, if good, that it is ignored . . . I happen to think that we are appallingly ignorant about many aspects of the working of the economic system -- the economics of the firm and industry. Ronald H Coase, Economists and Public Policy In this volume we attempt to address an element of Coase's concern by linking the empirical economics of the fInn and industry more closely to macroeconomic policies, and to demonstrate how to assess some of the effects of those policies. The scope of our study ranges from a structural macroeconomic model of the United States, from which macroeconomic effects are propagated to detailed structural models of SIC four digit industries. The rationale for our approach is very much in the spirit of various integrated macroeconomic/industry models constructed by Dale Jorgenson, working with various collaborators. Our approach is also consistent with, and motivated by, Lawrence Klein's agenda of modeling explicitly and structurally the macro and sectoral elements in the national economy. We also examine the effects of the macroeconomic policies of different countries on the enterprise. In only one case, our examination of crowding out of private investment by government defIcit fmancing, is the linkage among sectors implicit.

As the demand for environmental quality is increasing and as the current GATT rules monitored by the WTO are not very suitable for environmental protection, either a new international environmental organization may be formed soon or new environmental regulations may be added to GATT. In either case, understanding of the interactions between trade and the environment will be vital. Trade and the Environment presents both the theoretical and empirical exposition of (i) the impact of trade liberalization on environmental quality; (ii) the impact of environmental regulations on international competitiveness; and (iii) strategic trade and environmental policies. An important feature of Trade and the Environment as compared to earlier books is that it brings together the reciprocal interactions between trade and the environment. It can be used as the main or complementary textbook for a course on trade and the environment.

This collection of papers is an outgrowth of the "Game Practice I" th th conference held in Genoa from 28 to 30 June 1998. More precisely, it is the result of the call for papers that was issued in association with that conference: actually, nearly half of the contributions to this book are papers that were presented in Genoa. The name chosen for the conference and for this book is in evident and provocative contrast with "Game Theory": this choice needs some explanation, and to that we shall devote a few words of this Preface. Let us say at the outset that "Game Practice" would not exist without Game Theory. As one can see, the overall content of this book is firmly rooted in the existing Game Theory. It could be hardly otherwise, given the success and influence of Game Theory (just think of the basic issues in Economic Theory), and the tremendous development that has taken place within Game Theory. This success, however, makes even more evident the existence of problems with respect to the verification of the theory. This is patent from the point of view of the predictive value of Game Theory (the "positive" side): a lot of experimental and observational evidence demon strates that there is a large gap between theory and "practice".

This book is based on two seminars held at Rutgers on October 22, 1993, and May 6, 1994 entitled 'Incentive Regulation for Public Utilities'. These contributions by leading scholars and practitioners represent some of the best new research in public utility economics and include topics such as the theory of incentive regulation, dynamic pricing, transfer pricing, issues in law and economics, pricing priority service, and energy utility resource planning.