Our intention with this book is to extend the efficiency literature to the case of intertemporal models. We do this in steps. First, we introduce static network models which will serve as building blocks for our intertemporal budgeting models and our dynamic models. Next, we devote two chapters to productivity measurements, which we think of as comparative static models. Intertemporal budgeting models and dynamic models are taken up after that. Each chapter, except Chapter One, contains an empirical applica- tion. These applications are coauthored with colleagues and stu- dents; thanks are due to Runar Brannlund, Yijan He, Julius Hor- vath, Pontus Roos, Jerry Whittaker and S. (Lek) Yaisawarng . . We would also like to thank Dale Boisso and Kathy Hayes for gra- ciously sharing their data on Illinois municipalities with us. Two of the applications are already published, namely: "Environmental Regulation and Profitability: Applications to Swedish Pulp and Pa- per Mills," Environmental and Resource Economics 6: 23-36, 1995, (Section 2. 5) and "Productivity and Quality Changes in Swedish Pharmacies," International Journal of Production Economics 39: 137-144, 1995, (Section 3. 5). We are grateful to Kluwer Academic Publishers and Elsevier Science for kindly allowing us to reproduce these publications here. During the summer 1995 we spent a very enjoyable two months at the Center for Economic Studies (CES) at the University of Munich.

Modeling North American Economic Integration presents descriptions of the models and the central results obtained by four teams of economic modelers who analyze the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the economies of Canada, Mexico and the USA. Preliminary versions of these four modeling efforts were presented at a conference with the same title as the book, held in March 1991 at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and sponsored by El Colegio de Mexico and the Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics. The book also includes a Foreword by Jaime Serra-Puche, the former Secretary of Trade and Industrial Development in Mexico and that country's chief negotiator of NAFTA, plus two essays by the editors. The first provides an overview and discussion of the results obtained by the modeling groups, and the second provides a critical survey of the sort of applied general equilibrium model employed by these groups. A final chapter discusses the results of the models in relation to the 1994-95 financial crisis in Mexico.

Growth of the electric industry Electric generating stations and the associated transmission and distribu tion systems are high ticket items as are the costs of fuel and of operating the industry. The country presently spends about $150 billion annually on electricity. It is the country's largest industry, with assets of over $400 billion (Edison Electric Institute Statistical Year book, 1985). The country's electric generating capacity and the end use of electricity grew exponentially for about 70 years, starting at the beginning of the century, with a doubling period of roughly seven years (see figurelO-1). Over much of this period electric utility planning could simply consist of laying a ruler on such a logarithmic plot. The utilities could then, know ing plant construction times, write out purchase orders. Improvements in power generating technology allowed electric rates to decline, which permitted the market to expand to accommodate the additional supply. The prospective growth was a heady vision and provided much of the stimulus for the supporters of nuclear power. An example of such extra polation made in 1971 is shown in figure 10-2 (The U. S. Energy Problem, 1971). Another forecast (Electrical Power Supply and Demand Forecasts for the United States Through 2050, 1972) projected an installed capacity of 1. 5 million MV(e) in the year 2000, of which 45 percent was to be nuclear. For the year 2050 the installed capacity would have risen to 5. 2 million MW(e), of which 88 percent was to be nuclear."

Markov chains have increasingly become useful way of capturing stochastic nature of many economic and financial variables. Although the hidden Markov processes have been widely employed for some time in many engineering applications e.g. speech recognition, its effectiveness has now been recognized in areas of social science research as well. The main aim of Hidden Markov Models: Applications to Financial Economics is to make such techniques available to more researchers in financial economics. As such we only cover the necessary theoretical aspects in each chapter while focusing on real life applications using contemporary data mainly from OECD group of countries. The underlying assumption here is that the researchers in financial economics would be familiar with such application although empirical techniques would be more traditional econometrics. Keeping the application level in a more familiar level, we focus on the methodology based on hidden Markov processes. This will, we believe, help the reader to develop more in-depth understanding of the modeling issues thereby benefiting their future research.

This is the first volume ever published to examine the objective and subjective qualities of Korean life from both comparative and dynamic perspectives. It presents non-Western policy alternatives to enhancing the quality of citizens' lives, distinguishing Korea as an Asian model of economic prosperity and political democracy. It is intended for academics and policymakers interested in recent developments in Korea.

Changing preferencesis a phenomenonoften invoked but rarely properlyaccounted for. Throughout the history of the social sciences, researchers have come against the possibility that their subjects' preferenceswere affected by the phenomenato be explainedor by otherfactorsnot taken into accountin the explanation.Sporadically, attempts have been made to systematically investigate these in uences, but none of these seems to have had a lasting impact. Today we are still not much further with respect to preference change than we were at the middle of the last century. This anthology hopes to provide a new impulse for research into this important subject. In particular, we have chosen two routes to amplify this impulse. First, we stress the use of modellingtechniquesfamiliar from economicsand decision theory. Instead of constructing complex, all-encompassing theories of preference change, the authors of this volume start with very simple, formal accounts of some possible and hopefully plausible mechanism of preference change. Eventually, these models may nd their way into larger, empirically adequate theories, but at this stage, we think that the most importantwork lies in building structure.Secondly, we stress the importance of interdisciplinary exchange. Only by drawing together experts from different elds can the complex empirical and theoretical issues in the modelling of preference change be adequately investigated.

Mathematical Models of Distribution Channels identifies eight "Channel Myths" that characterize almost all analytical research on distribution channels. The authors prove that models that incorporate one or more Channel Myths generate distorted conclusions; they also develop a methodology that will enable researchers to avoid falling under the influence of any Channel Myth.

89 TABLE 5 USE OR PLANNED USE OF MAJOR ENGINES IN AIR FORCE AND NAVY AIRCRAFT a Engine Air Force Aircraft Navy Aircraft F-80, T-33, XF-92, YB-61, AJ2, F9F-7, TV-I, J-33 YB-62, F-94 (A, B), TM- T2-V, P4M-I 61 ( tactical missile) X-3, XF-88 F3D, F2H, F6U, F7U J-34 F-84 (B, C, D, E, G, H) J-35 FJ-I B-45, XB-51, XF-9J, B-36, J-47 B-47, F-86 (D, F, K) J-48 F-94C F9F J-57 B-52, YB-60, F-lOO, A3D, F4D, F8U F-I02A, F-I0l (A, B), SNARK, F-105A, F-I07, KC-135A, B-57D, X-16 F-84F, B-57 FIIF, A4D, FJ-3, J-65 FJ-4, F9F YQ-l, YQ-2, T-37 J-69 SNARK, YF-89E, B-66 J-71 F-I01, F-I02B, F-I05, J-75 F-I07 F8U, XP6M B-58, F-I04, F-IOIA (see J-79 note c, Table 4) F5D, FIIF, A3J, F4H T-34 C-133A, YC-97J, YC-12IF R7V-2 XF-84H T-40 R3Y, XFY, A2D YC-130, YC-131C T-56 Note: a Aircraft in which engine was used or was planned to be used. For at least one (and generally more) of the aircraft in the list associated with a given engine, the decision to use the engine was made when the engine was in the final stages of develop ment. (In the case of the J -57, J-79, andJ-75 this is true of nearly all the aircraft listed. ) No Jist extends beyond 1956. Summary For an engine developed independently of an airframe the de veloper may constrain the performance, weight, and size of an engine at the start."

Risk Management and the Environment: Agriculture in Perspective is a modern academic work that seeks to bring out both to the private and the policy sectors the importance of risk management in relation to the envi ronment in agriculture, as the world moves towards freer markets. Many efforts were pooled together in making this book. Three years ago, an attempt was made by one of the editors to get a project on 'Agri cultural Risk Management and Sustainabilty' (ARMAS) funded by the European Commission. Probably deeming the proposal as prematurely novel for Europe, the Commission's screening experts abandoned its evaluation. Following that experience it became apparent that the literature on the theme ought to be strengthened and emphasized through a book by a well known publishing house. The editorial team was formed relatively quickly and an invitation to known experts in the field for contributions was issued. Subsequently, Kluwer Academic Publishers, evaluated an edited volume proposal package, and final revisions were made prior to submitting the entire manuscript for publication. We are gratefully acknowledging the moral support of several individu als as well as the patience of our publishers."

Uncertainty could be associated with wisdom, enterprise, and discovery. In ordinary speech, however, it has mostly negative connotations. There is "fear of the unknown" and "ignorance is bliss;" there are maxims to the effect that "what you don't know doesn't hurt you" (or: "bother you") in several languages. This volume suggests that we need be bothered by the excessive confidence with which scientists, particularly social scientists, present some of their conclusions and overstate their range of application. Otherwise many of the questions that should be raised about all the major uncertainties attending a particular issue routinely may continue to be thwarted or suppressed. Down playing uncertainty does not lead to more responsible or surer action, it sidetracks research agendas, and leaves the decision makers exposed to nasty surprise. This volume demonstrates that recognizing the many forms of uncertainty that enter into the development of any particular subject matter is a precondition for more responsible choice and deeper knowledge. Our purpose is to contribute to a broader appreciation of uncertainty than regularly accorded in any of the numerous disciplines represented here. The seventeenth-century French philosopher Descartes, quoted in this volume, wrote that "whoever is searching after truth must, once in his life, doubt all things; insofar as this is possible. " White areas left on maps of the world in past centuries were a much more productive challenge than marking the end of the known world with the pillars of Hercules.

Europeans are living longer, and fewer now remain in the labour force as they grow older. Many European countries have responded to the ensuing financial pressure by reforming their public pension systems and health care programmes. There is considerable uncertainty as to the effects of these reforms - as they typically do not alter the unfunded nature of public welfare arrangements and this uncertainty is itself costly. Not only does it undermine the credibility of public welfare programmes, but it may also distort labour supply behaviour, decisions regarding savings and capital accumulation. More generally there is uncertainty about the overall impact of ageing on welfare and society and the multiple domains in which its effects may develop. Pensions: More Information, Less Ideology builds on the existing evidence - mostly in the field of public pensions - and highlights the advantages that would be obtained by: harmonising methodologies used in the various countries to report pension outlays and forecast future pension liabilities or more generally public spending; defining common standards as to the frequency of expenditure forecasts and the length of the forecast horizons for welfare expenditures; developing European longitudinal survey of persons pre- and post retirement age, providing timely information on a wide array of decisions by individuals and household related to the ageing process and the ongoing trends.

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) has had risk as a research topic on its agenda right from its inception in 1972. Risk has played a - jor role in the Energy Program, with research being carried out both in-house and in cooperationwith other internationalinstitutions like the InternationalAtomic - ergy Agency (IAEA) and national research centers. Research areas were primarily the evaluationof all possible risks within one categoryof energysupply like nuclear ?ssion or fusion or fossil fuels and, even more important, the comparisonof risks of different energy-supplystrategies. Later on an independent program was started which still exists today under the name Risk and Vulnerability. There is a large amount of literature on risks to which IIASA's research programs have contributed signi?cantly over the years, and there is, of course, an abundance of published work on international negotiations, part of which is a result of the work of the Processes of International Negotiation (PIN) Program. There are, however, so far no studies on the combination of these two strands. Therefore, and as research on both topics is housed at IIASA, we are happy that our PIN Program has undertaken the dif?cult and important task of analyzing what the editors of this book have called negotiated risks.

One might expect that after their identification in the 19th century, all aspects of Giffen goods would have been studied by now. This appears not to be the case. This book contains the latest insights into the theory of Giffen goods. In the past, surprisingly few goods could be categorized as "Giffen." This may be because of a lack of understanding of the character of these goods. Therefore, the theories explained in this book may also produce a solid basis for further empirical research in the field. Experts throughout the world have contributed to this book, which predominantly pursues a mathematically rigorous approach. It may be used by researchers in the field of fundamental economics and in graduate-level courses in advanced microeconomics.

The game-theoretic modelling of negotiations has been an active research area for the past five decades, that started with the seminal work by Nobel laureate John Nash in the early 1950s. This book provides a survey of some of the major developments in the field of strategic bargaining models with an emphasize on the role of threats in the negotiation process. Threats are all actions outside the negotiation room that negotiators have ate their disposal and the use of these actions affect the bargaining position of all negotiators. Of course, each negotiator aims to strengthen his own position. Examples of threats are the announcement of a strike by a union in centralized wage bargaining, or a nation's announcement of a trade war directed against other nations in negotiations for trade liberalization. This book is organized on the basis of a simple guiding principle: The situation in which none of the parties involved in the negotiations has threats at its disposal is the natural benchmark for negotiations where the parties can make threats. Also on the technical level, negotiations with variable threats build on and extend the techniques applied in analyzing bargaining situations without threats. The first part of this book, containing chapter 3-6, presents the no-threat case, and the second part, containing chapter 7-10, extends the analysis for negotiation situations where threats are present. A consistent and unifying framework is provided first in 2.

Ira Horowitz Depending upon one's perspective, the need to choose among alternatives can be an unwelcome but unavoidable responsibility, an exciting and challenging opportunity, a run-of-the-mill activity that one performs seem ingly "without thinking very much about it," or perhaps something in between. Your most recent selections from a restaurant menu, from a set of jobs or job candidates, or from a rent-or-buy or sell-or-Iease option, are cases in point. Oftentimes we are involved in group decision processes, such as the choice of a president, wherein one group member's unwelcome responsibility is another's exciting opportunity. Many of us that voted in the presidential elections of both 1956 and 1984, irrespective of political affiliation, experienced both emotions; others just pulled the lever or punched the card without thinking very much about it. Arriving at either an individual or a group decision can sometimes be a time consuming, torturous, and traumatic process that results in a long regretted choice that could have been reached right off the bat. On other occasions, the "just let's get it over with and get out of here" solution to a long-festering problem can yield rewards that are reaped for many 1 ORGANIZATION AND DECISION THEORY 2 years to come. One way or another, however, individuals and organiza tions somehow manage to get the decision-making job done, even if they don't quite understand, and often question, just how this was accomplished."

How do we place value on goods--and, importantly, why? Valuation and pricing are core issues in the market economy, but understanding of these concepts and their interrelation is weak. In response, The Worth of Goods takes a sociological approach to the perennial but timely question of what makes a product valuable.
Structured in three parts, it first examines value in the broader sense--moral values and how they are formed, and the relations between economic and non-economic values-- discussing such matters as the value of an oil spill, the price of a scientific paper, value in ethical consumption, and imaginative value. The second part discusses the issues surrounding valuation in aesthetic markets, specifically wine, fashion models, art, and the creative industries. The third part analyzes valuation in financial markets--credit rating agencies, stock exchange markets, and industrial production.
This pioneering volume brings together leading social scientists to provide a range of theoretical tools and case studies for understanding price and the creation of value in markets within social and cultural contexts and preconditions. It is an important source for scholars in economics, sociology, anthropology, and political science interested in how markets work, and how value is established.

This volume brings together leading scholars to make connections between efficiency and a number of diverse areas of current interest to economists. Included are new results concerning aggregation of technical efficiency, sources of productivity growth in U.S. manufacturing, intellectual property rights, and the determinants of successful mergers.

European integration has come a long way since the fIrst steps in the aftermath of the Second World War. At that time, the neutral European countries chose to stay outside the European Economic Community. Those countries that wanted less ambitious cooperation formed the European Free Trade Association. Increasing trade dependence between the two groupings was institutionalised when they signed free-trade agreements with each other, creating thus a wider European free-trade area in manufactures. The strong push towards deepening integration among EC countries, manifested in the Single European Act in 1985, and the dismantling of non-tariff barriers to trade and factor flows in the EC by 1993, made it necessary for EFTA countries to secure access on equal conditions to their most important export market and thus prevent trade diversion. The ensuing agreement on the European Economic Area responded to these demands, but did not resolve the apparent asymmetry in EEA decision-making. This emanated from the supremacy ofEC legislation over EEA rules, thus making EFTA countries passively adjust to EC norms. Consequently, Finland applied for membership in the EC in March 1992, with effect from 1995. The latest phase in the integration process, the Treaty on European Union, has an aim to further deepening, e. g. the formation of the economic and monetary union by 1999.

This book contains the papers that were presented in 1994 at the conference "Transaction Cost Economics and Beyond" organized by GRASP at the Tinbergen Institute in Rotterdam. It is generally recognized that transaction cost economics (TCE) is at the heart of the new theory of the firm. It is a well established research program with a well developed theoretical framework and good results in empirical testing. However, critics consider the approach too limited to understand the essential characteristics of such complex organizations like firms. Critics plea convincingly for the need to go beyond the original TCE framework and to develop a more pluralistic approach towards issues of economic organization. The new theory of the firm can only be further developed when scholars are willing to debate the issues in an open-minded, academic way. I thank the participants of the conference very much for putting so much effort in writing their papers and for their contribution to an open and stimulating discussion. It is my wish that this book contributes to the further deve lopment of the theory of the firm and that it helps us to a better understan ding of the complexities of economic organization. I would like to thank the following organizations for their support: the Tinbergen Institute, the "Vereniging Trust Fonds" of the Erasmus University, the Faculty of Economics of the Erasmus University, and GRASP (Group for Research and Advice in Strategic management and Industrial Policy)."

Work on this book began in the Spring of 1983, not long after an Amax Corporation annual budget meeting. As a member of the Amax board of directors since 1979, I had been present at such meetings in which the molybdenum price had been forecast to move higher than $7.00 per pound. The actual annual average prices were $9.70 in 1980, $8.50 in 1981, and $4.00 in 1982. The forecast for 1983 called for prices to return to higher levels, but as both dealer and producer prices declined further, my research began in earnest. Initially, the research was to address the question of why the molybdenum price had declined by more than half in a short period. More fundamental, as other metals prices also declined, was an impelling need to know the causes of the abrupt and sustained reduction in metals price levels that year. As prices stayed at low levels, while those of other materials recovered over the 1983-1986 period, the question became that of why metals prices had remained at startlingly low levels for over five years.

This is a management oriented book about efficiency, quality and effectiveness designed for an audience of management practitioners, scholars, and students. The integrative approach developed in this book contains new ideas regarding quality and efficiency-based effective management. These ideas lend themselves to managerial applications. This work is not meant to provide an exhaustive account of the measurement, and applications of effectiveness, quality, and efficiency concepts. With the exception of the treatment of conventional productivity concepts and measurements in Chapter 2, and of production flexibility in Chapter 5, the discussion in this book is largely non-teclmical. Among management practitioners, the book may be of particular interest to managers with broad strategic orientations in the fields of production management, quality management, marketing, and management of human resources. The academic audience is likely to include scholars and students interested in strategic planning, applied productivity analysis, quality management, marketing management, and management of human resources. The book could also be used as a supplementary text to or part of the readings in basic and advanced courses in strategic management, production management, and quality management. Concepts and dimensions of efficiency, quality, and effectiveness, as used throughout this book, are introduced in Chapter 1. The intricate sets of relationships among effectiveness, quality, and efficiency are explored.

A management agency --such as a publicly or privately owned electric utility -- must, if it is to be efficient in carrying out its day-to-day tasks, have a means of monitoring its performance to assess the efficiency of its operations and the effectiveness of its planning. For example, how did the demand for electricity compare with that assumed in planning? How effective were the incentives applied to induce energy conservation by users? Such ex post analyses are essential for improving the planning process and hence for improving decisions with respect to efficiency and resource allocation. Unfortunately, it seems to be very difficult for public agencies to make such ex post evaluations an integral part of agency activities, whether the agencies are "producers," e. g. , the Corps of Engineers or the Bureau of Reclamation with respect to water resources management, or are regulatory agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency or the Food and Drug Administration. Here and there a few ex post analyses of agency programs have been done, but rarely by the responsible agency itself. These analyses have attempted to compare the results actually achieved with the results estimated in planning, either in terms of project outputs or in terms of effectiveness of regulatory and/or economic incentives in inducing desired changes in behavior.

It is not uncommon that a group of scientists from many different disciplines join a working group, discuss a topic of interest and edit a volume of articles related to this topic. They may even agree on a jointly written introduction or conclusion . The study group "Environmental Standards" established in 1987 as an expert panel of the German Academy of Sciences and Technology in Berlin broke with that common tradition and became involved in a fascinating, but also pain-staking experiment to compose a document on setting environmental standards that has been literally written and authorized by all group members. The group consisted of eleven individuals representing the following disciplines: physics, chemistry, biology, engineering , law , psychology, and sociology/economics. The study group had two major goals: First, to provide a document that summarizes the state of the art in each discipline with respect to the topic of environmental standards. Since it is impossible to cover all environmental hazards in one book, the panel members agreed to limit the discussion of the scientific material to one major case study: the effects of ionizing radiation. This topic was selected because the scientific data base is well developed in this area and levels of anthropogenic release can be compared with natural background levels . These two conditions are rarely met by most chemical hazards.

This book is a substantially revised and enlarged version of the monograph General Equilibrium with Increasing Returns, published by Springer-Verlag as a Lecture Notes volume in 1996. It incorporates new topics and the most recent developments in the field. It also provides a more systematic analysis of the differences between production economies with and without convex production sets. Five out of twelve chapters are new, and most of the remaining ones have been reformulated. An outline of contents appears in chapter 1. As its predecessor, this book contains a formal and systematic exposition of the main results on the existence and efficiency of equilibrium, in production economies where production sets need not be convex. There is an explicit attempt at making of it a suitable reference both for graduate students and researchers interested in theory (not necessarily specialists in mathematical economics). With this twofold purpose in mind, the work has been written according to three key principles: (i) To provide a uhified approach to the problems involved. For that we construct a basic model that is rich enough to encompass the different models appearing throughout, and to derive all the results as coroilaries of a reduced number of general theorems. (ii) To maintain a relatively low mathematical complexity. Thus, when the estimated cost of generality exceeds the benefit of simplicity, we shall state and prove the theorems under assumptions that need not be the most general ones.

Chapters in Game Theory has been written on the occasion of the 65th birthday of Stef Tijs, who can be regarded as the godfather of game theory in the Netherlands. The contributors all are indebted to Stef Tijs, as former Ph.D. students or otherwise. The book contains fourteen chapters on a wide range of subjects. Some of these can be considered surveys while other chapters present new results: most contributions can be positioned somewhere in between these categories. The topics covered include: cooperative stochastic games; noncooperative stochastic games; sequencing games; games arising form linear (semi-) infinite programming problems; network formation, costs and potential games; potentials and consistency in transferable utility games; the nucleolus and equilibrium prices; population uncertainty and equilibrium selection; cost sharing; centrality in social networks; extreme points of the core; equilibrium sets of bimatrix games; game theory and the market; and transfer procedures for nontransferable utility games. Both editors did their Ph.D with Stef Tijs, while he was affiliated with the mathematics department of the University of Nijmegen.