"EURO." The name of the single currency for the European Union has not been chosen casually by the Heads of State and Government during the Madrid Council of December 1995. After tough discus sions, it has been unanimously accepted. The intention was to recall to every single citizen that this new money would be his money, that it would be the expression of the new European environment carefully built since the "fifties" to avoid any return to war and barbarism in Europe. Confidence and positive expectations for a better future put in the European construction have thus been clearly linked to the confidence in the new European currency and vice-versa. Euro notes and coins will be the first expression, clear, material and universal (for any European citizen being young or old, rich or poor, but also for the rest of the world) of a European identity alongside the national one. Obviously, it is of the outmost importance that the change over to the euro, be as smooth and as citizen-friendly as possible."

Decision Theory and Decision Analysis: Trends and Challenges is divided into three parts. The first part, overviews, provides state-of-the-art surveys of various aspects of decision analysis and utility theory. The second part, theory and foundations, includes theoretical contributions on decision-making under uncertainty, partial beliefs and preferences. The third section, applications, reflects the real possibilities of recent theoretical developments such as non-expected utility theories, multicriteria decision techniques, and how these improve our understanding of other areas including artificial intelligence, economics, and environmental studies.

In the future, as our society becomes older and older, an increasing number of people will be confronted with Alzheimer's disease. Some will suffer from the illness themselves, others will see parents, relatives, their spouse or a close friend afflicted by it. Even now, the psychological and financial burden caused by Alzheimer's disease is substantial, most of it borne by the patient and her family. Improving the situation for the patients and their caregivers presents a challenge for societies and decision makers. Our work contributes to improving the in decision making situation con cerning Alzheimer's disease. At a fundamental level, it addresses methodo logical aspects of the contingent valuation method and gives a holistic view of applying the contingent valuation method for use in policy. We show all stages of a contingent valuation study beginning with the design, the choice of elicitation techniques and estimation methods for willingness-to-pay, the use of the results in a cost-benefit analysis, and finally, the policy implica tions resulting from our findings. We do this by evaluating three possible programs dealing with Alzheimer's disease. The intended audience of this book are health economists interested in methodological problems of contin gent valuation studies, people involved in health care decision making, plan ning, and priority setting, as well as people interested in Alzheimer's disease. We would like to thank the many people and institutions who have pro vided their help with this project.

The Allocation of Limited Entrepreneurial Attention examines the implications of allocating limited entrepreneurial attention among activities or projects. This book maintains that attention is simultaneously limited in that a decision maker can pay attention to only one thing at a time, and entrepreneurial in that it may be allocated to evaluating a potential new project for possible adoption. However, since the outcome of the allocation of attention is not certain, the number of projects among which attention can be allocated is stochastic and the maximum number of projects is endogenously determined by the optimal allocation of limited entrepreneurial attention and describes the implications of this analysis for a number of economic problems.

oil is the lifeblood of the World's economy. It was a critical element in two World Wars and in the Cold War, and, as recent events in the Middle East confirm, people are willing to fight for it. The cheap energy it provides, especially for transport and agriculture, was one of the main factors that made possible the economic prosperity and growth that the World has enjoyed for the past fifty years and more. People rely on it everywhere, and in many forms, and they have become so accustomed to its ready availability that they take it for granted. To conceive of a world without traffic jams and airliners is unthinkable, and while not so obvious, oil lies behind every supermarket shelf, fuelling the tractor that ploughs the field and the delivery van that brings the consumer his food. Yet everyone knows that it is a finite and irreplaceable commodity, formed long ago in the geological past. What no one knows is just how finite it is. This book is an effort to try to answer that question : not in detail, but at least in orders of magnitude. More useful than the figures themselves is the discussion of the elements involved in addressing the subject. While it is impossible to predict the precise pattern of future production, which will be affected by many unforeseeable factors, one can at least begin to think in terms of resource constraint instead of an ever expanding supply of oil.

Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments effectively transfers an environmental property right, the difference in unrestricted emissions and the yearly endowment, 3 from certain fIrms to the public domain. Phase I is to reduce annual SOz emissions of 261 large (100 MW or more) utility generating units with emissions greater than 2. 5 IbslmmBtu. The yearly endowment during Phase I is equal to 2. 51bslmmBtu times the 1985-1987 baseline energy usage. Phase I standards are required to be met by 1995, an exception being units that install certain control technologies. In this case, units may postpone compliance until 1997 and may receive bonus 4 allowances. Phase II begins in the year 2000 and applies to any utility units (25 MW or more) with emissions above 1. 2 Ibs/mmBtu. The endowment is 1. 2 Ibs/mmBtu times baseline fuel use (U. S. Environmental Protection Agency 1990). 5 Hahn and Noll (1982), Bohi and Burtraw (1992), Lock and Harkawik (1991), and Walther (1991) discuss interactions between traditional rate-of-return regula- tion and overlaying environmental regulations, particularly tradable emission allowances, in the electric utility industry. Lock and Harkawik (1991) and Niemeyer (1991) discuss utility planning in this regard. Bohi and Burtraw (1992) fmd that a utility's environmental investment incentives will vary depending on cost recovery rules and argue that symmetry in treatment of investments in allowances and control technology is necessary if the utility is to be provided with the incentive to minimize costs of compliance.

Insurance is a concept, a technique, and an economic institution. It is a major tool of risk management, and plays an important role in the economic, social, and political life of all countries. Economic growth throughout the world has even expanded the role of insurance. Theory and Practice of Insurance aims to describe the significance of insurance institutions, the reasons they exist and how they function. The author emphasizes fundamental principles in risk and insurance, using an international frame of reference. This volume begins with an introduction to the concept of risk, then proceeds to cover insurance and its relationship to the economy; the principles of risk management and insurance; and the characteristics and performance of insurance companies.

In his book "Jurassic Park" (and in the movie based on the book), Michael Crichton describes a crazed professor who through techniques of genetic engineering manages to recreate the dinosaurs and giant ferns of 65 million years past. Once the giant Tyrannosaurus Rex is brought to life. a powerful dynamics sets in: evolution. The prehistoric world embarks on a collision course with man. Researching his book, Crichton had been reading up on paleontology and on the mathematical theory of evolution, catastrophes, and chaos. Crichton explains some of the twists of nonlinear mathematics that are rewriting not only thermodynamics, physics, and chemistry (that all grapple with evolving and turbulent processes) but also paleontology, genetics, medicine and even anthropology. Collapse and chaos is not limited to prehistoric animal kingdoms and ancient civilizations. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the political and economic chaos in its aftermath demonstrate that modern civilizations are just as vulnerable. This book aims at reexamining some main portions of the discipline of economics from the point of view of economic change and creativity. There are two aspects to this perspective. First, diversity and complexity. The range of different kinds of high technology products available to consumers and producers increases rapidly. Each product is the result of a long and complex production hierarchy. As these hierarchies grow, they deliver ever more diversified and complex high tech goods. Other hierarchies fall by the wayside.

Corruption has been part of our economic and political life since ancient times. During the past few years, there has been a resurgence of interest in understanding the impact that corruption has on our societies. The objective of this volume is to stimulate further studies on corruption by providing a review of existing work in this field and raising some questions that warrant further research. Contributors to this volume synthesize studies dealing with various aspects of corruption and present some new questions regarding the origin and impact of corruption. Accordingly, this volume has two aims. First, it attempts to bring together essential elements of different approaches that have been used to understand corruption. Second, many of the contributors in this volume propose a shift in the focus of studies on corruption away from bribery-type activities to corruption that results in distortion of economic policies. Economics of Corruption seeks to define and model corruption. The contributions in this volume examine the political economy of corruption - that is, why it continues to exist - as well as its consequences, and what measures, if any, can be brought to bear on this phenomenon.

Leon N. Moses In June 1991, the Transportation Center at Northwestern University sponsored Hazmat Transport '91: A National Conference on the Transportation of Hazardous Materials and Wastes. The faculty associated with the center were aware that there had been many professional, industrial and government conferences and meetings on the subject. However, they believed that the unique capacity of the Transportation Center to bring together leaders from industry and government, as well as leading scholars from economics, law, engineering, psychology and sociology who have done research on the problems associated with the transportation of hazardous materials and wastes (hazmats), could produce a set of integrated insights and understandings that would go well beyond those of previous conferences. The papers that make up this volume were all delivered at Hazmat Transport '91. From a legislative point of view, they tend to deal with issues associated with the Hazardous Materials Transportation Act of 1975 (HMTA), the original act passed to regulate the transportation of hazardous materials, and the Hazardous Materials Transportation Uniform Safety Act of 1990 (HMTVSA). There were talks and papers presented at the conference that focused on other recent legislation and transportation issues with which HMTUSA does not deal. The conference proceedings volume also had discussions and papers on significant managerial and regulatory issues that could not be included in this volume because of constraints on its size. Therefore, this essay is made up of three parts.

Markets, Pricing, and Deregulation of Utilities examines the effects of deregulation on the energy and telecommunications industries in an economic environment that has changed dramatically since deregulation was first introduced in those industries several years ago. The contributors to this book discuss the aspects of deregulation that appear to be succeeding and those that seem to be failing. Within that framework, they offer insight as to the possible next stages of regulatory restructuring and reform. The contents of this book provide a strong theoretical base leading to a better understanding of markets, pricing, and deregulation by utility managers, regulators, and economists.

Growing populations and economies have increased the public's awareness that the world's environmental resources are finite. The issues of global warming and the depletion of the ozone layer have given universal significance to what were once local and regional pollution problems. What is evident from Public Economics and the Environment in an Imperfect World is that Coasian negotiations fail to internalize the costs of environmental degradation, often calling for public intervention through the market mechanism. In its consideration of such issues the book includes contributions on assessment problems, institutional aspects, the need for coordination and efficiency, and distribution issues.

Altruistic Reveries is a unique volume, which arises out of an Interdisciplinary Conference on Perspectives on Altruism from the Humanities and Social Sciences organized by the Centre for Advanced Studies, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, National University of Singapore, in October 1999. Altruism is a deep, multi-faceted phenomenon, of great interest and relevance to scholars across the entire range of disciplines in the Humanities and Social Sciences. The Centre therefore brought together experts in diverse disciplines - Philosophy, Literature, Psychology, Sociology, Economics, and Political science - to examine and discuss the significance and role of altruism from their respective perspectives. A total of 10 papers in all were presented, and the volume is completed by an Introduction by the editors, and a final Concluding Chapter by one of the editors. Among the issues discussed are: the efficacy of motivational altruism in the resolution of public issues; the genetic origins of altruism and its attendant risks; the metaphysical basis of altruism; empathy and altruism; altruism or social exchange; altruism in wartime; and the welfare state. A notable feature of the volume is that the various authors have not `talked past' one another. Although each is a specialist in his field, the papers are accessible to those in other fields, and to non-specialists. Both individually and together, they provide a rich set of insights and perspectives on altruism as a fundamental human and social phenomenon, which will edify, interest, and stimulate all readers of the volume.

David O. Loomis Illinois State University The explosive growth of the Internet has caught most industry experts off guard. While data communications was expected to be the "wave of the future," few industry observers foresaw how rapid the change in focus from voice communications towards data would be. Understanding the data communications revolution has become an urgent priority for many in the telecommunications industry. Demand analysis and forecasting are critical tools to understanding these trends for both Internet access and Internet backbone service. Businesses have led residential customers in the demand for data services, but residential demand is currently increasing exponentiall y. Even as business demand for data communications is becoming better understood, residential broadband access demand is still largely unexplored. Cable modems and ADSL appear to be the current residential broadband choices yet demand elasticities and econometric model-based forecasts for these services are not currently available. The responsiveness of customers to price and income changes and customer's perceptions of the tradeoff in product characteristics between cable modems and ADSL is largely unknown. Demand for Internet access is derived from the demand for applications which utilize this access; access is not demanded independent of its usage. Thus it is important to understand Internet applications in order to understand the demand for access.

Consumption takes place in settings or environments which have both direct and indirect effects on its dynamic path. Direct effects of environments on activities in consuming can occur through constraints that environments impose. Environment can also have indirect effects on consumption through enduring modification of internalized constructs which enter heuristics for decisions on activities. The importance of environments to consumption is increased by the definitional dependence of status on the judgements of others. This study examines microprocessing in consumer activities for status as it interacts with structure in the environments of these activities. The importance of environments in status activities provides the basis for a seperate, but related inquiry into observed differences in the form they take across societies. Conjecture on the consequences of differences in the structure of environments for consumption that typify a society is studied in the narrative statements by members of comparison societies and in the content of print advertising in these societies.Evolutionary processes which could establish observed differences in structure across societies are also considered in both their systematic and random components. I review models of random drift and stochastic resonance as candidate forms for generating observed structure in environments. Directions for the subsequent study of status through consumption are discussed.P * Introduction: Status Through Consumption; * Knowledge Use in Nonwork Activities for Status; * Interactions of Consumer Microprocessing and Structured Environments: Activity Feedback and the Stability of Structure; * Awards and Honors Systems in Structured Environments: Cross Societal Comparisons of Narrative Statements on Consuming for Status; * Comparative Analyses of Consumption Appeals in the Print Advertising of the USA and France, 1955-1991 * Random Process in the Generation of Structured Environments; * Overview and directions for Study of Status Through Consumption.

The Impact of Public Policy on Consumer Credit presents a collection of research papers and discussions commissioned to commemorate the silver anniversary of Georgetown University's Credit Research Center in 1999. Nine topics serve as focal points for the volume, with the general theme 'What do we know, what do we need to know?' about the functioning of consumer credit markets at the beginning of the 21st century. Because the growth of household debt and the consequences of household debt burden have dominated discussion in both the media and policy arenas for decades, 'Credit Growth and the Burden of Debt' is the theme for the first group of three papers. The papers address the cultural evolution of consumer credit in the U.S., the rise in consumer indebtedness and the alarming surge in personal bankruptcies.A second grouping of three papers takes a distinctly policy-oriented tack and examines questions regarding consumer access to credit (mortgage markets and evidence of discrimination), consumer protection through mandatory disclosure of information (Truth-in-Lending regulations), and the general state of financial literacy among the population of young consumers entering credit markets for the first time. The final three papers in this volume examine how technological innovations in risk management (through statistical risk scoring models), marketing (through use of personal information for targeted marketing) and finance (through securitization of consumer loans) have impacted the availability of credit products and sparked new public policy questions.

Since 1993 a major research programme, "Stochastic Decision Analysis in Forest Management" has been running at Department of Economics and Natural Resources, The Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University (KVL), Copenhagen, in collaboration with Institute of Mathematical Statistics, University of Copenhagen (KU). The research is funded by the two Universities; The Danish Agricultural and Veterinary Research Council; The Danish Research Academy; The National Forest and Nature Agency; and Danish Informatics Network in the Agricultural Sciepces (DINA). A first international workshop in the research programme was held 5 - 8 August, 1996 at Eldrupgaard, Denmark, within the frameworkofacollaborationagreementbetween University of California at Berkeley (UCB) and the Danish Universities, and funded by The Danish Research Academy and the L0venholm Foundation. Having participated in the workshop, Professor Peter Berck (UCB) suggested that the papers be published along with selected papers in the same scientific field, i.e. mainly cointegration analysis of time series in forestry. The editors express their sincere appreciations to the many persons who have contributed to the realisation of the present book: participants in the research programme and the workshop, in particular Professors S0ren Johansen (KU) and Peter Berck (UCB); authors outside the programme/workshop; reviewers of the papers not previously published, in particuler Associate Professors Niels Haldrup (Aarhus University) and Henrik Hansen (KVL); and finally Mrs Mette Riis and Lizzie Rohde who did the tedious work of giving the papers a uniform style. Copenhagen, October 1998.

Health, The Medical Profession, and Regulation presents new evidence concerning health and the environment, inequality of health in many countries, and the compatibility of different quality of life measurements, along with new solutions to problems of health policy. The book is grouped into three sections. Section I, comprising six papers, looks into the determinants of people's health. Section II consists of three papers and deals with the supply side of the market for health care services. Finally, Section III contains three contributions devoted to health regulation. The intended market for this volume includes, but is not limited to, health economists, policy makers, insurers, and governmental advisors who need to stay abreast of the latest developments in health services research worldwide.

As we stand at the precipice of the twenty first century the ability to capture and transmit copious amounts of information is clearly a defining feature of the human race. In order to increase the value of this vast supply of information we must develop means for effectively processing it. Newly emerging disciplines such as Information Engineering and Soft Computing are being developed in order to provide the tools required. Conferences such as the International Conference on Information Processing and ManagementofUncertainty in Knowledge-based Systems (IPMU) are being held to provide forums in which researchers can discuss the latest developments. The recent IPMU conference held at La Sorbonne in Paris brought together some of the world's leading experts in uncertainty and information fusion. In this volume we have included a selection ofpapers from this conference. What should be clear from looking at this volume is the number of different ways that are available for representing uncertain information. This variety in representational frameworks is a manifestation of the different types of uncertainty that appear in the information available to the users. Perhaps, the representation with the longest history is probability theory. This representation is best at addressing the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of different values for similar variables. This uncertainty is often described as randomness. Rough sets can be seen as a type of uncertainty that can deal effectively with lack of specificity, it is a powerful tool for manipulating granular information.

Decisions, Games and Markets is designed to stimulate new developments in decision theory, game theory and general equilibrium theory, as well as in their applications to economics. The book is divided into three parts - Decision Theory, Game Theory, and the Theory of Markets. Though its orientation is primarily methodological, some articles are more applied. The consistent use of formal analysis and methodological individualism constitutes the unifying theme of the book. Decisions, Games and Markets will be of considerable interest to both students and teachers of microeconomics and game and decision theory.

The concept of localized technological change is emerging at the crossroads of different approaches to the economics of innovation and new technologies. The term localized technological change' refers to the introduction of technological changes which make possible an increase in total factor productivity within only a limited range of techniques defined by the levels of factor intensity. This contrasts with generalized technological change', which is defined as the global shift of all the techniques represented on the map of isoquants of the neoclassical tradition. The Economics of Localized Technological Change elaborates the notion of localized technology with respect to firms, factor substitution, sectors, regions and techniques. It also assesses the implications for industrial policy, technology and innovation policy. The book will be of interest to corporate policy makers, scholars of industrial organization and economics of innovation as well as business school students.

The u.s. government bulks large in the nation's financial markets. The huge volume of government-issued and -sponsored debt affects the pricing and volume ofprivate debt and, consequently, resource allocation between competing alternatives. What is often not fully appreciated is the substantial influence the federal government wields overresource allocation through its provisionofcreditandrisk-bearing services to the private economy. Because peopleand firms generally seekto avoid risk, atsomeprice they are willing to pay another party to assume the risk they would otherwise face. Insurance companies are a class of private-sector firms one commonly thinks of as providing these services. As the federal government has expanded its presence in the U.S. economy during this century, it has increasingly developed programs aimed at bearing risks that the private sector either would not take on at any price, or would take on but atapricethoughtto besogreatthatmostpotentialbeneficiarieswouldnotpurchase the coverage. Today, roughly three-fifths of all nonfederal credit outstanding is 1 assisted by some form of federal program. The federal government provides insurance of many private pension plans through the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, subsidizesand implicitly guarantees the liabilitiesofseveral agencies dominating secondary loan markets (for example, the Federal National Mortgage Association, Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, and Student Loan Mar ketingAssociation), andeithermakesdirectloansorguaranteesprivatelygenerated loans through a varietyofcreditprograms to farmers, exporters, home purchasers, and others."

Two related trends have created novel challenges for managing risk in the United States. The first trend is a series of dramatic changes in liability law as tort law has expanded to assign liability to defendants for reasons other than negligence. The unpredictability of future costs induced by changes in tort law may be partly responsible for the second major trend known as the liability crisis' - the disappearance of liability protection in markets for particularly unpredictable risks. This book examines decisions people make about insurance and liability. An understanding of such decision making may help explain why the insurance crisis resulted from the new interpretations of tort law and what to do about it. The articles cover three kinds of decisions: consumer decisions to purchase insurance; insurer decisions about coverage they offer; and the decisions of the public about the liability rules they prefer, which are reflected in legislation and regulation. For each of these three kinds of decisions, normative theories such as expected utility theory can be used as benchmarks against which actual decisions are judged.

It is difficult to overstate the importance of personal consumption both to individual consumers and to the economy. While consumer&, are recognized as valuing market goods and services for the activities they can construct from them in the frameworks of several disciplines, consequences of the characteristics of goods and services they use in these activities have not been well studied. In the discourse to follow, I will contrast knowledge-yielding and conventional goods and services as factors in the construction of activities that consumers engage in when they are not in the workplace. Consumers will be seen as deciding on non-work activities and the inputs to these activities according to their objectives, and the values and cumulated skills they hold. I will suggest that knowledge content in these activities can be efficient for consumer objectives and also have important externalities through its effect on productivity at work and economic growth. The exposition will seek to elaborate these points and contribute to multi disciplinal dialogue on consumption. It takes as its starting point the contention that consumption is simultaneously an economic and social psychological process and that integration of content can contribute to explanation."

Our original reason for writing this book was the desire to write down in one place a complete summary of the major results in du ality theory pioneered by Ronald W. Shephard in three of his books, Cost and Production Functions (1953), Theory of Cost and Produc tion Functions (1970), and Indirect Production Functions (1974). In this way, newcomers to the field would have easy access to these important ideas. In adg, ition, we report a few new results of our own. In particular, we show the duality relationship between the profit function and the eight equivalent representations of technol ogy that were elucidated by Shephard. However, in planning the book and discussing it with colleagues it became evident that such a book would be more useful if it also provided a number of applications of Shephard's duality theory to economic problems. Thus, we have also attempted to present exam ples of the use of duality theory in areas such as efficiency measure ment, index number theory, shadow pricing, cost-benefit analysis, and econometric estimation. Much of our thinking about duality theory and its uses has been influenced by our present and former collaborators. They include Charles Blackorby, Shawna Grosskopf, Knox Lovell, Robert Russell, and, not surprisingly, Ronald W. Shephard. We have also benefit ted over the years from many discussions with W. Erwin Diewert."