21. Simulating Future Climate G. J. Boer 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 489 2 International Aspects . . . . . . . . . . . 490 3 Simulating Historical and Future Climate 492 4 Climate Change in the 20th Century . . . 495 5 Simulating Future Climate Change 498 6 Climate Impact, Adaptation, and Mitigation 501 7 Summary . 502 Index 505 PREFACE Numerical modeling ofthe global atmosphere has entered a new era. Whereas atmospheric modeling was once the domain ofa few research units at universities or government laboratories, it can now be performed almost anywhere thanks to the affordability of computing power. Atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) are being used by a rapidly growing scientific community in a wide range of applications. With widespread interest in anthropogenic climate change, GCMs have a role also in informing policy discussions. Many of the scientists using GCMs have backgrounds in fields other than atmospheric sciences and may be unaware of how GCMs are constructed. Recognizing this explosion in the application of GCMs, we organized a two week course in order to give young scientists who are relatively new to the field of atmospheric modeling a thorough grounding in the basic principles on which GCMs are constructed, an insight into their strengths and weaknesses, and guid ance on how meaningful numerical experiments are formulated and analyzed. Sponsored by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and other institu tions, this Advanced Study Institute (ASI) took place May 25-June 5, 1998, at II Ciocco, a remote hotel on a Tuscan hillside in Italy."

This book analyzes various properties and structures of ice from the point of view to solve problems in civil aviation. The Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, together with large territories of Siberia and the Far East, is a zone, that is insufficiently provided with ground navigation facilities, as well as platforms and airfields for landing aircraft, including in the event of unpredictable situations. However, most of this area, especially in winter, is covered with ice, which can be used to solve this problem. The possibility of using ice sheets for the construction of airfields or the location of ground-based flight support facilities requires careful study and analysis. This book is devoted to the study of the properties and structure of ice, with a view for use in civil aviation to construct ice airfields and the placement of ground-based flight support facilities.

Aristotle's Meteorology influenced generations of speculation about the earth sciences - ranging from atmospheric phenomena to earthquakes. The commentary of John Philoponus (6th century AD) on the opening three chapters of Meteorology is here translated for the first time into English by Dr Inna Kupreeva, building on the work of L.G. Westerink. Philoponus - who today is increasingly respected as a philosopher in his own right - here engages critically with Aristotle's views about the building-blocks of our world, its size and relationship to other heavenly bodies, and reception of warmth from the sun. This volume will be of interest to all students of ancient and medieval philosophy, history and philosophy of science.

This book explores the interplay between science, economics, politics, and ethics in understanding the challenge that climate change poses to the international community. A central theme is that climate change involves core issues of scientific uncertainty and intergenerational fairness that must be accounted for in the design and implementation of policy responses. Drawing together contributions from leading scholars in a variety of relevant disciplines, this volume provides a synthetic approach to this important topic that should prove valuable to a variety of readers. This series focuses on the interface between geosystems, biosystems, and the political economy. The volumes integrate physical, natural, and social sciences with economics. It encompasses the atomistic and mechanistic epistemology of modern economic analysis.

Weather forecasting is the most visible branch of meteorology and has its modern roots in the nineteenth century when scientists redefined meteorology in the way weather forecasts were made, developing maps of isobars, or lines of equal atmospheric pressure, as the main forecasting tool. This book is the history of how weather forecasting was moulded and modelled by the processes of nation-state building and statistics in the Western world.

Clouds affect the climate of the Earth, and they are an important factor in the weather. Therefore, their radiative properties must be understood in great detail. This book summarizes current knowledge on cloud optical properties, for example their ability to absorb, transmit, and reflect light, which depends on the cloudsa (TM) geometrical and microphysical characteristics such as sizes of droplets and crystals, their shapes, and structures. In addition, problems related to the image transfer through clouds and cloud remote sensing are addressed in this book in great detail.

This book can serve as a major introductory text in cloud optics for students; it can also be an important source of information on theoretical cloud optics for cloud physicists, meteorologists and optical engineers.

All basic ideas of optics as related to scattering of light in clouds (e.g. Mie theory and radiative transfer) are considered in a self consistent way. Consequently, the book can also be a useful textbook to newcomers to the field.

If one surveys the development of wind engineering, one comes to the conclusion that the challenge of urban climatology is one of the most important remaining tasks for the wind engineers. But what distinguishes wind engineering in urban areas from conventional wind engineering? Principally, the fact that the effects studied are usually unique to a particular situation, requiring consideration of the surroundings of the buildings. In the past, modelling criteria have been developed that make it possible to solve environmental problems with great confidence, and studies validated the models: at least in a neutrally stratified atmosphere. The approach adopted in the book is that of applied fluid mechanics, since this forms the basis for the evaluation of the urban wind field. Variables for air quality or loads are problem specific, or even random, and methods for studying them are based on risk analysis, which is also presented. Criteria are developed for a systematic approach to urban wind engineering problems, including parameter studies. The five sections of the book are: Fundamentals of urban boundary layer and dispersion; Forces on complex structures in built-up areas; Air pollution in cities; Numerical solution techniques; and Posters. A subject index is included.

Climate hazards are the world's most widespread, deadliest and costliest natural disasters. Knowledge of climate hazard dynamics is critical since the impacts of climate change, population growth, development projects and migration affect both the impact and severity of disasters. Current global events highlight how hazards can lead to significant financial losses, increased mortality rates and political instability. This book examines climate hazard crises in contemporary Asia, identifying how hazards from the Middle East through South and Central Asia and China have the power to reshape our globalised world. In an era of changing climates, knowledge of hazard dynamics is essential to mitigating disasters and strengthening livelihoods and societies across Asia. By integrating human exposure to climate factors and disaster episodes, the book explores the environmental forces that drive disasters and their social implications. Focusing on a range of Asian countries, landscapes and themes, the chapters address several scales (province, national, regional), different hazards (drought, flood, temperature, storms, dust), environments (desert, temperate, mountain, coastal) and issues (vulnerability, development, management, politics) to present a diverse, comprehensive evaluation of climate hazards in Asia. This book offers an understanding of the challenges climate hazards present, their critical nature and the effort needed to mitigate climate hazards in 21st-century Asia. Climate Hazard Crises in Asian Societies and Environments is vital reading for those interested and engaged in Asia's development and well-being today and will be of interest to those working in Geography, Development Studies, Environmental Sciences, Sociology and Political Science.

It is not possible to understand the present or future climate unless scientists can account for the enormous and rapid cycles of glaciation that have taken place over the last million years, and which are expected to continue into the future. A great deal has happened in the theory of the ice ages over the last decade, and it is now widley accepted that ice ages are driven by changes in the Earth's orbit. The study of ice ages is very inter-disciplinary, covering geology, physics, glaciology, oceanography, atmospheric science, planetary orbit calculations astrophysics and statistics.

Originally published in 1973. This collection of essays looks at the 'quantitative revolution' and the 'new geography' by some of the geographers who had a significant part in those innovations and looks ahead to further developments. The views in the chapters are diverse and offer a fascinating glimpse of the discipline of geography as the subject was undergoing such change and becoming more socially committed. They cover theory, spatial-systems theory, forecasting, human ecology and climatology alongside the teaching of the subject. The concerns of the contemporary geographer come across and are of interest today as these areas have developed still more.

The continued aridity trend occurring in many regions worldwide is a manifestation of the response of the earth system to global change. It hinders severely the sustainable development of these regions. Northern China is one of the largest and most affected regions in the world. This book documents the climate change in its arid and semi-arid areas on decadal to geological time scales based on analyses of various data sources. These analyses improved our understanding of the potential mechanisms driving the aridity trend, particularly in the second half of the 20th century. Based on these analyses and a systematic assessment of the impact of the aridity trend on the ecological and hydrological processes in northern China, measures of human adaptation to the aridity trend for socio-economic developments are proposed.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.

Information-based decision-making during drought, often brings out some of the excellent practices that are prevalent in society / individuals. This book is designed to provide information on the drought process, meteorological, hydrological, agriculture, socio-economic aspects and available technologies such as satellite remote sensing data analysis and Geographical Information system for assessment. Assessment procedures utilising the various parameters of importance from various sources for micro level management that would enhance the effectiveness of management practice are dealt in detail. Resource availability and affected group determine the relief assistance for the present event and information that would help them in their realisation and preparedness for the forthcoming years by select countries is highlighted. This would help in the formulation of schemes for event mitigation and area development plans.

The readers would gain complete knowledge on drought. This book is expected to act as a guide in preparing people as effective natural resource utilizationist under drought situations.

Ancient Meteorology discusses Greek and Roman approaches and attitudes to this broad discipline, which in classical antiquity included not only 'weather', but occurrences such as earthquakes and comets that today would be regarded as geological, astronomical or seismological. The range and diversity of this literature highlights the question of scholarly authority in antiquity and illustrates how writers responded to the meteorological information presented by their literary predecessors. The first book of its kind in English, Ancient Meteorology will be a valuable reference tool for classicists and those with an interest in the history of science.

The evidence for the Little Ice Age, the most important fluctuation in global climate in historical times, is most dramatically represented by the advance of mountain glaciers in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries and their retreat since about 1850. The effects on the landscape and the daily life of people have been particularly apparent in Norway and the Alps. This major book places an extensive body of material relating to Europe, in the form of documentary evidence of the history of the glaciers, their portrayal in paintings and maps, and measurements made by scientists and others, within a global perspective. It shows that the glacial history of mountain regions all over the world displays a similar pattern of climatic events. Furthermore, fluctuations on a comparable scale have occurred at intervals of a millennium or two throughout the last ten thousand years since the ice caps of North America and northwest Europe melted away. This is the first scholarly work devoted to the Little Ice Age, by an author whose research experience of the subject has been extensive. This book includes large numbers of maps, diagrams and photographs, many not published elsewhere, and very full bibliographies. It is a definitive work on the subject, and an excellent focus for the work of economic and social historians as well as glaciologists, climatologists, geographers, and specialists in mountain environment.

Radiative heat transfer is a fundamental factor in the energetics of the terrestrial atmosphere: the system consisting of the atmosphere and the underlying layer is heated by the Sun, and this heating is compensated, on the average, by thermal radia tion. Only over a period of 1-3 days from some specified initial moment can the dynamic processes in the atmosphere be considered to be adiabatic. Global dynamic processes of long duration are regulated by the actual influxes of heat, one of the main ones being the radiative influx. Radiation must be taken into account in long-term, weather forecasting and when considering the global circulation of the atmosphere, the theory of climate, etc. Thus it is necessary to know the albedo of the system, the amount of solar radiation transmitted by the atmosphere, the absorptivity of the atmosphere vis-a-vis solar radiation, and also the effective radiation flux, the divergence of which represents the radiative cooling or heating. All these quantities have to be integrated over the wavelength spectrum of the solar or thermal radiation, and they must be ascertained as functions of the determining factors. The relation ships between the indicated radiation characteristics, the optical quantities directly determining them, the optically active compo nents of the atmosphere, and the meteorological fields will be discussed in this book."

This book discusses the impact of climate change, land use and land cover, and socio-economic dynamics on landslides in Asian countries. Scholars recently have brought about a shift in their focus regarding triggering factors for landslides, from rainfall or earthquake to claiming rapid urbanization, extreme population pressure, improper land use planning, illegal hill cutting for settlements and indiscriminate deforestation. This suggests that the occurrence or probabilities of landslides are shaped by both climate-related and non-climate-related anthropogenic factors. Among these issues, land use and land cover change or improper land use planning is one of the key factors. Further climate change shapes the rainfall pattern and intensity in different parts of the world, and consequently rainfall-triggered landslides have increased. These changes cause socio-economic changes. Conversely, socio-economic and lifestyle changes enhance inappropriate land use and climate change. All these changes in land use, climate and socio-economic aspects are dynamics in nature and shape landslide risks in Asian countries, where they are given serious attention by governments, disaster management professionals, researchers and academicians. This book comprises 21 chapters divided into three major sections highlighting the effect of climate change on landslide incidence with the influence on vegetation and socio-economic aspects. The sections address how climate change and extreme events have triggered landslides. The advances in geospatial techniques with the focus on land use and land cover change along with the effect on socio-economic aspects are also explored.

1 2 Michel M. VERSTRAETE and Martin BENISTON 1 Space Applications Institute, EC Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy 2 Department of Geography, University of Fribourg, Switzerland This volume contains the proceedings ofthe workshop entitled "Satellite Remote Sensing and Climate Simulations: Synergies and Limitations" that took place in Les Diablerets, Switzerland, September 20-24, 1999. This international scientific conference aimed at addressing the current and pot- tial role of satellite remote sensing in climate modeling, with a particular focus on land surface processes and atmospheric aerosol characterization. Global and regional circulation models incorporate our knowledge ofthe dynamics ofthe Earth's atmosphere. They are used to predict the evolution of the weather and climate. Mathematically, this system is represented by a set ofpartial differential equations whose solution requires initial and bo- dary conditions. Limitations in the accuracy and geographical distribution of these constraints, and intrinsic mathematical sensitivity to these conditions do not allow the identification of a unique solution (prediction). Additional observations on the climate system are thus used to constrain the forecasts of the mathematical model to remain close to the observed state ofthe system.

One of the fundamental goals of earth system science research is to adopt a more holistic view of the earth as a 'system' comprising different domains. The Society of Earth Scientists has brought out this multidisciplinary publication to emphasize the need of an integrated approach to understand the Earth system. It focuses on natural disasters and, in particular, on climate change and its effects in Asia and understanding the significance of these developments within the context of the paleo-climatic record. The later sections of the book then focus on other types of natural disasters as well as those induced by human interaction with our environment.

The innovation in space technologies has generated a new method for observing and monitoring tsunamis from space. Most tsunami remote sensing studies focus on using classical image processing tools or conventional edge detection procedures. However, these methods do not use modern physics, applied mathematics, signal communication, remote sensing data and innovative space technologies. This book equips readers to understand how to monitor tsunamis from space with remote sensing technology art to create a better alarm warning system.

Introduction to Micrometeorology is intended as a textbook for courses in micrometeorology for undergraduate students (juniors or seniors) in meteorology or environmental science, as well as for an introductory graduate-level course in boundary-layer meteorology. It will also serve as a good reference for professional meteorologists, environmental scientists and engineers, particularly those interested in problems of air pollution, atmospheric-biospheric interactions, wind-engineering and engineering meteorology. The book outlines basic laws and concepts, before using qualitative descriptions to introduce more complex theories. This new edition is updated and expanded, as are the references. Each chapter features worked-through problems and exercises.

This first interdisciplinary review on how climate affects human behavior provides an introductory framework for research in the field, surveys climatic data around the world, and covers over 3,000 sources. The bibliography is organized topically into chapters dealing with physiological, psychological, sociological, and economic effects of climate on people. The bibliography identifies important sources relating to acclimation, allergies, diet, diseases, affective disorders, aggression, personality, mental illnesses, accidents and injuries, crime, fertility, mortality, migration, suicide, consumer and industrial behavior, macroeconomic policy, and methodologies. A detailed author, subject, and country and regional index make this careful review easily accessible for varied use by students, teachers, researchers, policymakers, and business persons or managers.

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is the current state-of-art methodology to provide weather prediction at different spatial and time scales to serve user community. The NWP uses a modeling system built up adopting the mathematical equations governing atmospheric motion, incorporating the physical processes through parameterization methods, solved applying numerical methods and carrying out large number-crunching calculations on high speed computers. The NWP products have their application in agriculture, aviation, transport, tourism, sports, industry, health, energy and many other social sectors. Several decision support systems of disaster management and risk assessment are dependent on meteorological information from NWP products. The purpose of this book is to present the basics of NWP in lucid form to those who seek an overview of the science of modern weather prediction. Print edition not for sale in South Asia (India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan or Bhutan).

The application of surface geochemical methods to finding petroleum is based on the detection of hydrocarbons in the soil that have leaked from a petroleum reservoir at depth. While the "seal" over the deposit was once considered impermeable, surface geochemistry data now show that such leakage is a common occurrence. Despite its simplicity and low costs, surface geochemistry remains controversial because, until now, there was no objective and in-depth treatment of the various methods of surface geochemistry for oil exploration. Written by a successful oil finder, this practical guide: surveys a broad array of surface geochemistry techniques, from soil gases to microbiology, and provides clear strategies for applying them to the high-stakes art of petroleum exploration; offers numerous case studies, both successes and failures, to show the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches; examines statistical and spatial variation, surveys, and models in surface geochemistry, demonstrating how each analytical tool can be used to optimize accuracy; integrates surface geochemistry data interpretation with data from conventional methods of oil exploration, and considers the economics of surface geochemical approaches; and discusses key topics that have been neglected in the literature, such as grid design and the effects of soils. Geologists, geophysicists, geological engineers, and exploration managers involved in petroleum exploration will gain valuable insights from this volume. By presenting and evaluating each method of surface geochemistry in a neutral tone, this volume enables the reader to select and employ these methods with greater confidence.