This paper documents the result of a future technology forecast
study to determine when operationally useful nano aerial vehicles
or NAVs will be achieved. This was accomplished as part of the Blue
Horizons Research Team tasked by the Chief of Staff of the United
States Air Force to explore emerging technologies and make
recommendations for long range investment. This study utilized a
future forecasting method called the Delphi Method which was
developed by the RAND Corporation in the 1960s to make the
forecast. The results indicate NAVs capable of operating in swarms
will be available within 10 years to perform operational missions.
This paper recommends the Air Force begin work now to fully develop
operational concepts and requirements for NAVs to guide future
development work and enter the Joint Capabilities and Integration
Development System to fully define capability requirements for
swarming NAVs across the services to gain efficiencies in
development and acquisition of these systems and to avoid
duplicative requirements and programs.
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