Why do some civil wars end in successfully implemented peace
settlements while others are fought to the finish? Numerous
competing theories address this question. Yet not until now has a
study combined the historical sweep, empirical richness, and
conceptual rigor necessary to put them thoroughly to the test and
draw lessons invaluable to students, scholars, and policymakers.
Using data on every civil war fought between 1940 and 1992, Barbara
Walter details the conditions that lead combatants to partake in
what she defines as a three-step process--the decision on whether
to initiate negotiations, to compromise, and, finally, to implement
any resulting terms. Her key finding: rarely are such conflicts
resolved without active third-party intervention.
Walter argues that for negotiations to succeed it is not enough
for the opposing sides to resolve the underlying issues behind a
civil war. Instead the combatants must clear the much higher hurdle
of designing credible guarantees on the terms of
agreement--something that is difficult without outside assistance.
Examining conflicts from Greece to Laos, China to Columbia, Bosnia
to Rwanda, Walter confirms just how crucial the prospect of
third-party security guarantees and effective power-sharing pacts
can be--and that adversaries do, in fact, consider such factors in
deciding whether to negotiate or fight. While taking many other
variables into account and acknowledging that third parties must
also weigh the costs and benefits of involvement in civil war
resolution, this study reveals not only how peace is possible, but
probable.
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