"Precision ... Statistical and Mathematical Methods in Horse
Racing" thoroughly discusses the mathematical and statistical
methods in handicapping and betting techniques. Differentiations,
combinatorics, normal distribution, kernel smoothing and other
mathematical and statistical tools are introduced. The jargons and
equations are kept to a minimum so that it is easy to understand
for most readers. More than 20 professional programs are freely
available to download, which can allow readers to easily apply the
methodology introduced in the book.
This book can be divided into three main parts: horse handicapping
(Chapters 2-6), wagering (Chapters 7-9) and theories in practices
(Chapters 10-11). Chapter 1 will explain why long term gains are
possible in horse racing. About horse handicapping, we will start
with analysing racing forms in Chapter 2. Other handicapping
factors such as weight carried, jockeys, trainers and pedigrees
will be discussed in Chapter 3. Some advanced statistical methods,
such as chi-square test and kernel smoothing, will be introduced in
Chapter 4 to further analyse those handicapping factors discussed
in previous chapters. The following two chapters are about
probability estimations. In Chapter 5, normal distribution and
multinominal logistic regression are introduced in estimating
winning probability of each race horse. In Chapter 6, we will talk
about some methods in misconceptions in estimating placed
probability.
Two main concepts in wagering, Kelly criterion and hedging, will be
discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. To hit exotic pools, those theories
in combinatorics in Chapter 9 will definitely help the readers. The
author will share his experiences in betting syndicate in Chapter
10, and tell you how to be a successful professional horseplayer in
the last Chapter.
Some readers may find the mathematics in this book difficult, but
the free program will take your pain away and do all the
calculations. You can simply apply all the professional formulae by
no more than a click, and pick your horses like an expert analyst.
As an awardee in Asian-Pacific Mathematics Olympiad, the author
abandoned his career as an actuary and became a key member in a
gambling syndicate. This book was reprinted in the 4th edition in
Hong Kong, ranked #2 in the best-selling chart in the international
Chinese weekly Yazhou Zhoukan, and now available worldwide.
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