Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been
lending, borrowing, crashing--and recovering--their way through an
extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts
have chimed, "this time is different"--claiming that the old rules
of valuation no longer apply and that the new situation bears
little similarity to past disasters. With this breakthrough study,
leading economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff definitively
prove them wrong. Covering sixty-six countries across five
continents, "This Time Is Different" presents a comprehensive look
at the varieties of financial crises, and guides us through eight
astonishing centuries of government defaults, banking panics, and
inflationary spikes--from medieval currency debasements to today's
subprime catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, leading
economists whose work has been influential in the policy debate
concerning the current financial crisis, provocatively argue that
financial combustions are universal rites of passage for emerging
and established market nations. The authors draw important lessons
from history to show us how much--or how little--we have
learned.
Using clear, sharp analysis and comprehensive data, Reinhart and
Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and
strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and
ferocity. They examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and
hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and
domestic debts--as well as the cycles in housing and equity prices,
capital flows, unemployment, and government revenues around these
crises. While countries do weather their financial storms, Reinhart
and Rogoff prove that short memories make it all too easy for
crises to recur.
An important book that will affect policy discussions for a
long time to come, "This Time Is Different" exposes centuries of
financial missteps.
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