After the end of the Second World War businessmen and economists
throughout the world feared that the American postwar inflationary
boom would end in a serious slump. The slump took a long time to
come, and when it did appear in 1949 it was both mild and short
lived. In its mildness and brevity it foreshadowed the American
business recessions since that time and, indeed, may foreshadow the
end of the business cycle as it has been known in the past. This
book presents the first full-scale study of the 1948 49 recession
in the United States, making it the focal point of a detailed,
analytical account of American business fluctuations from the end
of the Second World War until the beginning of the Korean War. The
main part of the book is prefaced by a review of fluctuations from
1945 to 1967 and of the business cycle theory, which places the
postwar events in perspective. Of special importance are the
studies of the ending, in early 1948, of the period of re-stocking
and re-equipment; of the impact of the changed farm situation in
this deflationary atmosphere, and use of modern consumption theory
to explain the changes in household spending after the war and
during the recession.
Dr. Blyth has drawn extensively upon the results of modern
economic research, and has woven the econometric findings and the
historical narrative together with a theoretical analysis. He
conclusively rejects the theory that recent U.S. business cycles
are the result of any largely self-perpetuating fluctuation in
investment in stocks. Instead he draws attention to the persistent
destabilizing roles of changes in defense expenditure and of
changes in monetary policy-inventory investment performs the
largely passive role of aggravating these changes.
The book, first published in 1969, will be of value not only to
specialists in business cycle studies, but to economists and others
concerned with the problems of stability and growth in the
international economy, as well as to economic historians.
General
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