In far too many cases, recommendations of forensic reports on
previous pandemics were ignored. Substantial weaknesses in the
preparation by public health authorities and governments increased
the health and economic costs of the COVID-19 pandemic relative to
what they would have been if pre-existing recommendations had been
followed and a wider set of plans had been put into place. We
discuss parallels between the lack of preparation of financial
system regulators prior to the global financial crisis and the lack
of preparation by public health authorities and governments prior
to COVID-19. These parallels relate to: required stocks (of capital
or equipment), data collection and sharing, lending facilities,
stress testing and war games, early warning indicators and systems,
contagion from abroad, operational risks, a system-wide approach
(including effects on the real economy), models incorporating the
heterogeneity of individuals, and effects on less-regulated parts
of the system. The recent COVID-19 crisis has demonstrated that,
apart from the direct economic consequences from illness and death
from the virus, the main costs have been due to the varying degrees
of preventative measures taken by the public, firms, and
governments that directly impacted health, as well as social,
economic, and financial activity. We make recommendations for
carrying out post mortems on the COVID-19 experience, planning for
future pandemics, and establishing transparent and accountable
governance systems. We then propose the use of regular, combined
health, economic, and financial stress tests and exercises/war
games in preparing for future pandemics and other major
environmental shocks.
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