This is a study of the strategic challenges that Soviet ballistic
missile defense (BMD) programs may pose for the Western alliance.
David Yost suggests that the challenges for Western policy stem
partly from Soviet military programs, Soviet arms control policies,
and Soviet public diplomacy campaigns, and partly from the West's
own intra-alliance disagreements and lack of consensus about
Western security requirements.
By reviewing the history of Western assessments of Soviet BMD,
Yost shows that long before the American strategic defense
initiative (SDI) was launched, Soviet BMD system modernization and
infrastructure expansion were well under way, and that current
Soviet programs are not mainly reactive to the SDI. Yost judges
that the Soviets are probably better prepared than the Americans to
deploy a network of traditional, ground-based BMD systems that
would have at least some military value in the next decade,
particularly against the limited and selective retaliatory attacks
envisaged in NATO strategy. He does not argue that the Soviets are
preparing for a clear-cut "breakout" from current arms control
limits on BMD, but he notes the risks posed by activities that
could eventually amount to a "creepout" from certain treaty
constraints. Because of such ambiguities and the seriousness of the
strategic and political stakes, the West should be prepared to
pursue any necessary countermeasures in a timely fashion. His aim
in this book is to advance understanding of the possible strategic
challenges to the West and to identify potential points of
consensus for Western policies.
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