By 2000, Ireland had achieved a remarkable macroeconomic
performance: 10% economic growth annually, a budget surplus, and a
very low debt to GDP ratio. Emigration had disappeared and there
was significant immigration from Eastern Europe. Yet, by November
2010, output had collapsed to an extent unprecedented among post
war industrial countries, the budget deficit was out of control,
and the debt to GDP ratio had soared to around 100%. In an
unprecedented development, Ireland was forced to apply for an
emergency bail-out package from the Troika (European Commission,
European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund). This
book examines how the Celtic Tiger, a high growth performing
economy, fell into a macroeconomic abyss. It is a story that shows
how the Irish economy moved from a property market crisis to a
banking crisis and fiscal crisis, and how these three crises led to
a fourth crisis, the massive financial crisis of 2010. Against the
backdrop of the newly created Eurozone, the book demonstrates how a
housing boom was transformed into a property market bubble through
excessive credit creation. Accompanying the market bubble, buoyant
property related taxes enabled a profligate government to over
spend and under tax. Few, either in Ireland or Europe, recognised
the danger signals because the prevailing economic ideology
suggested that financial markets could self-regulate. The book
analyses the roles of banks, builders, developers, regulators (the
EU, the ECB, the Central Bank of Ireland, and the Irish Financial
Regulator), politicians, economists, the media, and a property
driven populace during the various stages of the downfall of the
Celtic Tiger. It pays particular attention to the decisions to
provide a highly controversial comprehensive guarantee for the
covered Irish banks in 2008, and the subsequent events that left
the government with no alternative but to request the 2010 bail
out. Throughout the book, attention is devoted to the allocation of
responsibilities for the unfolding crises. First, who or what was
responsible for what happened and in what sense? Second, could
specific actions have been taken at various stages to prevent the
final recourse to the bail out? Finally, the book addresses the
future of the Celtic Tiger. It discusses the impact of measures to
help resolve the current Euro debt crisis as well as the underlying
lessons to be learned from this traumatic period in Ireland's
economic and financial history.
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