Emerging from the tradition of Marshall, Knight, Keynes, and
Shackle, "Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models" is
concerned with the character of formal economic analysis when the
notions of logical or mechanical time and probabilistic uncertainty
and the relatively complete knowledge basis it requires, are
replaced, respectively, by historical time, and nonprobabilistic
uncertainty and ignorance. Examining that analytical character by
constructing and exploring particular models, this book emphasizes
doing actual economic analysis in a framework of historical time,
nonprobabilistic uncertainty, and ignorance.
Donald W. Katzner begins with an extensive investigation of the
distinction between potential surprise and probability. He presents
a modified version of Shackle's model of decision-making in
ignorance and examines in considerable detail its "comparative
statics" and operationality properties. The meaning of aggregation
and simultaneity under these conditions is also explored, and
Shackle's model is applied to the construction of models of the
consumer, the firm, microeconomics, and macroeconomics. Katzner
concludes with discussions of the roles of history, hysteresis, and
empirical investigation in economic inquiry.
"Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models" will be of
interest to economists and others engaged in the study of
uncertainty, probability, aggregation, and simultaneity. Those
interested in the microeconomics of consumer and firm behavior,
general equilibrium, and macroeconomics will also benefit from this
book.
Donald W. Katzner is Professor of Economics, University of
Massachusetts.
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