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Capital Returns - Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager's Reports 2002-15 (Hardcover, 1st ed. 2015)
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Capital Returns - Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager's Reports 2002-15 (Hardcover, 1st ed. 2015)
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We live in an age of serial asset bubbles and spectacular busts.
Economists, policymakers, central bankers and most people in the
financial world have been blindsided by these busts, while
investors have lost trillions. Economists argue that bubbles can
only be spotted after they burst and that market moves are
unpredictable. Yet Marathon Asset Management, a London-based
investment firm managing over $50 billion of assets has developed a
relatively simple method for identifying and potentially avoiding
them: follow the money, or rather the trail of investment. Bubbles
whether they affect a whole economy or merely a single industry,
tend to attract a splurge of capital spending. Excessive investment
drives down returns and leads inexorably to a bust. This was the
case with both the technology bubble at the turn of the century and
the US housing bubble which followed shortly after. More recently,
vast sums have been invested in mining and energy. From an
investor's perspective, the trick is to avoid investing in sectors,
or markets, where investment spending is unduly elevated and
competition is fierce, and to put one's money to work where capital
expenditure is depressed, competitive conditions are more
favourable and, as a result, prospective investment returns are
higher. This capital cycle strategy encourages investors to eschew
the simple 'growth' and 'value' dichotomy and identify firms that
can deliver superior returns either because capital has been taken
out of an industry, or because the business has strong barriers to
entry (what Warren Buffett refers to as a 'moat'). Some of
Marathon's most successful investments have come from obscure,
sometimes niche operations whose businesses are protected from the
destructive forces of the capital cycle. Capital Returns is a
comprehensive introduction to the theory and practical
implementation of the capital cycle approach to investment. Edited
and with an introduction by Edward Chancellor, the book brings
together 60 of the most insightful reports written between 2002 and
2014 by Marathon portfolio managers. Capital Returns provides key
insights into the capital cycle strategy, all supported with real
life examples from global brewers to the semiconductor industry -
showing how this approach can be usefully applied to different
industry conditions and how, prior to 2008, it helped protect
assets from financial catastrophe. This book will be a welcome
reference for serious investors who looking to maximise portfolio
returns over the long run.
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