In this first book in the series Cambridge Studies in Probability,
Induction and Decision Theory, Ellery Eells explores and refines
current philosophical conceptions of probabilistic causality. In a
probabilistic theory of causation, causes increase the probability
of their effects rather than necessitate their effects in the ways
traditional deterministic theories have specified. Philosophical
interest in this subject arises from attempts to understand
population sciences as well as indeterminism in physics. Taking
into account issues involving spurious correlation, probabilistic
causal interaction, disjunctive causal factors, and temporal ideas,
Professor Eells advances the analysis of what it is for one factor
to be a positive causal factor for another. A salient feature of
the book is a new theory of token level probabilistic causation in
which the evolution of the probability of a later event from an
earlier event is central. This should be a book of significance to
philosophers of science and metaphysicians; it should also prove
stimulating to many economists, psychologists and physicists.
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