Iran appears to be pursuing an assertive foreign policy that
confronts the United States on a variety of points: the Middle East
peace process, the stability of moderate Muslim states, terrorism
(such as the death threat to Rushdie), security in the Persian
Gulf, and nuclear proliferation. However, Iran's intentions and
capabilities are by no means clear. One the intentions side, some
observers expect that a desire for good economic relations with the
West and a waning of revolutionary fervor will lead to moderation
in action if not in words; others see a broad consensus inside Iran
for assertiveness, uniting Persian nationalism with Islamic
fundamentalism. On the capabilities side, Iran is short on cash and
faces growing internal political dissension, which some say means
it will not be able to devote much to foreign adventures and the
military build-up, while other say internal problems give Iran
reason to acquire a military with which to pressure its rich
neighbors. To discuss these issues the Institute for National
Strategic Studies at the National Defense University convened a
workshop on "Iran's Strategic Intentions." The workshop brought
together leading experts on Iranian security policy: speakers with
access to Iranian officials and with the language skills to follow
Iranian developments. Some of the points taken from the discussion,
which by no means represent the view of all the authors or
discussion participants, were: Iran is absorbed with domestic
problems. Foreign affairs is a secondary concern for Iran's leaders
and its people. Foreign policies are in large part a by-product of
domestic politics. The government lacks legitimacy. The
post-Khomeini leadership is not accepted by many believers as the
voice of religious authority. Religious figures in the provinces,
especially those with large Sunni or non-Persian populations,
increasingly reject the representatives sent from Tehran. The hold
of the central government over the provinces in weakening. The
economic situation is bad, and the popular mood is worse. Public
and elite opinion both believe that the continued existence of the
Islamic Republic is in doubt. Iran's military strategy does not
emphasize external defense. Iran sees itself as friendless in a
hostile world, but it does not see itself as facing a serious
danger from its neighbors. Iraq is not seen as a credible threat
for the foreseeable future, for political and military reasons.
Turmoil in the southern parts of the former Soviet Union is not
seen as posing a conventional military problem for Iran. Iran's
principal external aims for its military are to discourage US
involvement I the Gulf and to spread its influence in its
neighborhood. The Revolutionary Guards and the security forces,
which are increasingly coordinated with the military, may be called
on regularly to suppress domestic unrest. Iran will pursue military
capabilities at the low end and high end, not in the middle.
Development of nuclear weapons makes excellent sense, to assert the
revolutions success and its claim of equality to the great powers.
Iran lacks the resources to engage in an extensive buildup of its
conventional military. The leadership realizes that high-technology
weapons are essential for success on the modern battlefield;
revolutionary fervor is not sufficient. Support subversion and
terrorism fits Iran's budget, its ideology, and its predilections.
Nor does Iran believe it will have to pay a high price for this
sort of low-intensity conflict.
General
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