Natural resource managers face a complex decision-making
environment characterized by the potential occurrence of rapid and
abrupt ecological change. These abrupt changes are poorly
accommodated by traditional natural resource planning and
decision-making processes. As recognition of threshold processes
has increased, contemporary models of ecological systems have been
modified to better represent a broader range of ecological system
dynamics. Key conceptual advances associated with the ideas of
non-linear responses, the existence of multiple ecological stable
states and critical thresholds are more likely the rule than the
exception in ecological systems. Once an ecological threshold is
crossed, the ecosystem in question is not likely to return to its
previous state. There are many examples and a general consensus
that climatic disruptions will drive now stable systems across
ecological thresholds. This book provides professional resource
managers with a broad general decision framework that illustrates
the utility of including ecological threshold concepts in natural
resource management. It gives an entry into the literature in this
rapidly evolving concept, with descriptions and discussion of the
promising statistical approaches for threshold detection and
demonstrations of the utility of the threshold framework via a
series of case studies.
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