When security and arms control analysts list what has helped keep
nuclear weapons technologies from spreading, energy economics is
rarely, if ever, mentioned. Yet, large civilian nuclear energy
programs can-and have-brought states quite a way towards developing
nuclear weapons; and it has been market economics, more than any
other force, that has kept most states from starting or completing
these programs. Since the early 1950s, every major government in
the Western Hemisphere, Asia, the Middle East, and Europe has been
drawn to atomic power's allure, only to have market realities
prevent most of their nuclear investment plans from being fully
realized. Adam Smith's Invisible Hand, then, could well determine
just how far civilian nuclear energy expands and how much attention
its attendant security risks will receive. Certainly, if nuclear
power's economics remain negative, diplomats and policymakers could
leverage this point, work to limit legitimate nuclear commerce to
what is economically competitive, and so gain a powerful tool to
help limit nuclear proliferation. If nuclear power finally breaks
from its past and becomes the cheapest of clean technologies in
market competitions against its alternatives, though, it is
unlikely that diplomats and policymakers will be anywhere near as
able or willing to prevent insecure or hostile states from
developing nuclear energy programs, even if these programs help
them make atomic weapons. Will the global spread of nuclear power
programs, which could bring many more countries much closer to
acquiring nuclear weapons capabilities, be an inevitable
consequence of energy market economics? Or is such an expansion
impossible without government subsidies and new policies to support
them? This volume showcases the analyses of some of the world's
leading energy experts to shed light on this key 21st century
security issue.
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