This monograph provides a practical definition of terrorism risk,
presents a method of estimating it, and demonstrates a framework
for evaluating this method. Results support conclusions on how to
improve risk-based resource allocation. The Department of Homeland
Security is responsible for protecting the United States from
terrorism. It does so partly through the Urban Areas Security
Initiative, though its distribution has been criticized for not
reflecting risk. This monograph offers a practical definition of
terrorism risk and a method for estimating it that addresses
inherent uncertainties. It also demonstrates a framework for
evaluating alternative risk estimates. Finally, it makes five
recommendations for improving resource allocation.
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