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Societal Complexity - System Effects and the Problem of Prediction (Paperback)
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Societal Complexity - System Effects and the Problem of Prediction (Paperback)
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The complexity of the modern world makes it difficult to predict
the effects of political actions. In his 1992 book, System Effects,
Robert Jervis underscored this difficulty by pointing to various
sources of complexity when people interact. For example, they may
misperceive each other's perceptions, leading their actions to
backfire or create unintended side effects. In this collection,
scholars of international relations, law, network analysis,
political philosophy, and political science examine why questions
of societal complexity have become unfashionable in some social
sciences and fashionable in others. And they discuss whether
complex social interactions tie our hands: if our actions are
unpredictable, should we, and can we, stop acting? Among the
contributors are noted legal theorist Richard Posner; Philip E.
Tetlock, the world's leading expert on the predictive shortcomings
of "experts"; and Jervis himself, who contributes a retrospective
look at his 1992 book and its lessons. This book was originally
published as a special issue of Critical Review: A Journal of
Politics and Society.
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