The Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) face common security challenges from
crime, corruption, terrorism, and faltering commitments to economic
and democratic reforms. However, cooperation among them remains
halting, so security in the region is likely in the near term to
vary by country. Kyrgyzstan's and Tajikistan's futures are most
clouded by ethnic and territorial tensions, and corruption in
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan could spoil benefits from the
development of their ample energy resources. Authoritarianism and
poverty in Uzbekistan could contribute to a succession crisis. On
the other hand, Kyrgyzstan's beleaguered civil society might
eventually help the relatively small nation safeguard its
independence. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan might become regional
powers able to champion policy solutions to common Central Asian
problems and to resist undue influence from more powerful outside
powers, because of their large territories and populations and
energy and other resources.
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