Several published reports indicate that top Israeli decisionmakers
are seriously considering whether to order a military strike on
Iran's nuclear facilities, and if so, when. Twice in Israel's
history, it has conducted air strikes aimed at halting or delaying
what Israeli policymakers believed to be efforts to acquire nuclear
weapons by a Middle Eastern state-destroying Iraq's Osirak reactor
in 1981 and a facility the Israelis identified as a reactor under
construction in Syria in 2007. Today, Israeli officials generally
view the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran as an unacceptable threat
to Israeli security-with some describing it as an existential
threat. This report analyzes key factors that may influence Israeli
political decisions relating to a possible strike on Iranian
nuclear facilities. These include, but are not limited to, the
views of and relationships among Israeli leaders; the views of the
Israeli public; U.S., regional, and international stances and
responses as perceived and anticipated by Israel; Israeli estimates
of the potential effectiveness and risks of a possible strike; and
responses Israeli leaders anticipate from Iran and Iranian-allied
actors-including Hezbollah and Hamas-regionally and
internationally.
General
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