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The Mystic Hand - What Central Bankers Have Unlearned, Relearned, and Still Have to Learn (Hardcover)
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The Mystic Hand - What Central Bankers Have Unlearned, Relearned, and Still Have to Learn (Hardcover)
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It's hardly an exaggeration to claim that over the last few
decades, central bankers have achieved unprecedented status.
Especially since the global financial crisis of 2008, the world
holds its breath whenever they announce new policy interventions.
Given the opaque nature of the money supply, in the eyes of most
citizens, the "mystic hand" of central bankers is felt everywhere.
Never before have central bank policies been so decisive, not only
for financial markets but also for national economies and public
welfare in general. This book traces the way in which central
bankers learned, unlearned, relearned and still have to learn the
tricks of their trade. The lessons taught by nineteenth-century
grands savants like Henry Thornton and Walter Bagehot, once
instilled, were eventually neglected. This led directly to the
policy mistakes that produced the Great Depression of the 1930s.
When the financial crisis of 2008 broke out, central bankers the
world over summoned Thornton's and Bagehot's wisdom and acted
accordingly. This re-learning saved the world from a repetition of
the Great Depression. But when the worst of the financial crisis
and ensuing recession were over, central bankers continued applying
unconventional monetary policies-in some areas of the world, this
even extended to negative policy interest rates and massive
interventions in the bond markets, which resulted in constant
injections of liquidity. Once the Covid-19 pandemic arrived, most
central bankers doubled down on the intensity of these kinds of
policies. While the financial crisis required central bankers to
act in decisive ways, it can no longer be denied that the
consequences of these expansive monetary policies have become major
issues. Central bank policies of the last decade and a half have
resulted in a relentless build-up of leverage and debt; led to
speculative bubbles in different kinds of markets; undermined the
willingness of political authorities to put their fiscal houses in
order; stimulated a "zombification" of the economy and the growth
of shadow banking activities; and contributed to growing inequality
around the world. Central bankers are at a crucial turning point
for the future of their profession, and even more for the future of
our economy. New lessons have to be learnt. Our future depends on
these being the right lessons.
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