How are economists and historians to explain what happened in
history? What statistical inferences can be drawn from historical
data? The authors believe that explanation in history can be
identified with the problems of prediction in a probabilistic
universe. Using this approach, the historian can act upon his "a
priori" information and his judgment of what is unique and
particular in each past event, even with data hitherto considered
to be intractable for statistical treatment. In essence, the book
is an argument for and a demonstration of the point of view that
the restricted approach of "measurement without theory" is not
necessary in history, or at least not necessary in economic
history.
After two chapters of theoretical introduction, the authors
explore the meanings and implications of evidence, explanation and
proof in history by applying econometric methods to the analysis of
three major problems in 19th century economic history--the
profitability of slavery in the antebellum South, income growth and
development in the United States during the 1800's, and The Great
Depression in the British economy; also included is a postscript on
growth reassessing some current arguments in the light of the
findings of these papers.
The book presents an original and provocative approach to
historical problems that have long plagued economists and
historians and provides the reader with a new approach to these and
similar questions.
"Alfred H. Conrad" is professor of business administration at
Harvard University. Much of Conrad's work has appeared in
professional journals.
"John R. Meyer" is James W. Harpel Professor of Capital
Formation and Economic Growth emeritus at Harvard University.
Meyer's books include "The Investment Decision" and "Economics of
Competition in the Transportation Industry." He has served as a
board member and economic advisor for various businesses.
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