Author of the acclaimed work "Iceberg Risk: An Adventure in
Portfolio Theory," Kent Osband argues that uncertainty is central
rather than marginal to finance. Markets don't trade mainly on
changes in risk. They trade on changes in "beliefs" about risk, and
in the process, markets unite, stretch, and occasionally defy
beliefs. Recognizing this truth would make a world of difference in
investing. Belittling uncertainty has created a rift between
financial theory and practice and within finance theory itself,
misguiding regulation and stoking huge financial imbalances.
Sparking a revolution in the mindset of the investment
professional, Osband recasts the market as a learning machine
rather than a knowledge machine. The market continually errs,
corrects itself, and makes new errors. Respecting that process,
without idolizing it, will promote wiser investment, trading, and
regulation. With uncertainty embedded at its core, Osband's
rational approach points to a finance theory worthy of
twenty-first-century investing.
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