A combination of future change pressures - including
unprecedented growth in population, urbanization, socio-economic,
and climate change - are imposing new stresses on the earth s
resources and society s ability to maintain or improve
infrastructure systems and environmental quality. While planning
for sustainability, we need to make decisions considering those
future change pressures, which are often uncertain and generate
various risks in systems. These decisions determine the long-term
sustainability of a system. The main outcomes of this research are
a novel framework for risk and uncertainty analysis, a hybrid
approach of uncertainty analysis, and fuzzy set theory based
multi-criteria analysis method for decision-making.
The developed framework can be applied in any other system
without much modification. The algorithms for a hybrid approach to
uncertainly analysis are based on both the probability and fuzzy
set theory. It can capture both qualitative and quantitative
sources of uncertainty in any complex system modelling. The fuzzy
set theory based multi-criteria analysis method is supported with a
framework that allows quantifying performance and sustainability in
a system. Both uncertainty analysis and multi-criteria methods are
supported with stand-alone tools that can be coupled with any
systems modelling.
The framework, methods, and tools are demonstrated in data
surplus case in Birmingham, UK and data scarce case in Kathmandu,
Nepal and Mbale Town, Uganda. This thesis demonstrates the
effectiveness of the developed framework, methodology, and tools
for strategic planning of urban water systems in both data scarce
and data limited conditions.
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