The economy is so powerful in determining the results of U.S.
presidential elections that political scientists can predict
winners and losers with amazing accuracy long before the campaigns
start. But if it is true that "it's the economy, Stupid," why do
incumbents in good economies sometimes lose? The reason, Lynn
Vavreck argues, is that what matters is not just the state of the
economy but how candidates react to it. By demonstrating more
precisely than ever before how candidates and their campaigns
affect the economic vote, "The Message Matters" provides a powerful
new way of understanding past elections--and predicting future
ones.
Vavreck examines the past sixty years of presidential elections
and offers a new theory of campaigns that explains why electoral
victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by
prevailing economic conditions. Using data from presidential
elections since 1952, she reveals why, when, and how campaign
messages make a difference--and when they can outweigh economic
predictors of election outcomes.
"The Message Matters" does more than show why candidates favored
by the economy must build their campaigns around economic messages.
Vavreck's theory also explains why candidates disadvantaged by the
economy must try to focus their elections on noneconomic issues
that meet exacting criteria--and why this is so hard to do.
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