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The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence - Proceedings of the Sixteenth Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Hardcover, 1992 ed.)
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The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence - Proceedings of the Sixteenth Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Hardcover, 1992 ed.)
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These proceedings, from a conference held at the Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis on October 17-18, 1991, attempted to layout what
we currently know about aggregate economic fluctuations.
Identifying what we know inevitably reveals what we do not know
about such fluctuations as well. From the vantage point of where
the conference's participants view our current understanding to be,
these proceedings can be seen as suggesting an agenda for further
research. The conference was divided into five sections. It began
with the formu lation of an empirical definition of the "business
cycle" and a recitation of the stylized facts that must be
explained by any theory that purports to capture the business
cycle's essence. After outlining the historical develop ment and
key features of the current "theories" of business cycles, the
conference evaluated these theories on the basis of their ability
to explain the facts. Included in this evaluation was a discussion
of whether (and how) the competing theories could be distinguished
empirically. The conference then examined the implications for
policy of what is known and not known about business cycles. A
panel discussion closed the conference, high lighting important
unresolved theoretical and empirical issues that should be taken up
in future business cycle research. What Is a Business Cycle? Before
gaining a genuine understanding of business cycles, economists must
agree and be clear about what they mean when they refer to the
cycle."
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