Great power competition has returned after a generation of absence,
and the U.S. military edge over prospective opponents is eroding.
Whereas the United States previously could overwhelm adversaries
with sheer force, if necessary, it now needs every advantage it can
get. This study analyzes how the United States might inflict
surprise on its adversaries to gain a strategic advantage. Surprise
is one aspect of a broader discussion in the national security
literature on innovative operational concepts, which may serve as
force multipliers to enable the United States to get more out of
existing capabilities. A follow up to CSIS's highly successful 2018
study Coping with Surprise in Great Power Conflicts, this report
highlights several components of a successful surprise, including
exploiting adversary vulnerabilities, using intelligence and
technology, employing secrecy and deception, and doing the
unexpected. The report also contains over a dozen vignettes
illustrating potential future surprises.
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