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The Cost of Voting in the American States
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The Cost of Voting in the American States
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In the wake of Shelby County v. Holder and the January 6 Capitol
insurrection, changes to election laws, policies, and especially
access to voting have become a key political battleground. A
central point of contention is whether new restrictive voting laws
intentionally discriminate against Black and Hispanic
subpopulations in the United States. Conversely, do policies that
expand voting access favor Democrats and increase the possibility
of election fraud?In The Cost of Voting in the American States,
Michael J. Pomante II, Scot Schraufnagel, and Quan Li test these
questions. The authors look specifically for systematic outcomes
produced by distinctive election policies in the American states.
First, they establish a competent measure of voting restrictions to
begin this unraveling. The authors create a Cost of Voting Index
(COVI) for the fifty states, which uses a statistical procedure to
extract an underlying dimension and to determine significance from
state laws based on how restrictive the polices are. The authors
call the underlying dimension extracted the “cost of voting.”
With this measure in place, they evaluate which states have a
higher cost of voting, how this cost impacts who votes, and whether
there is a correlation between the cost of voting and minority
populations. Using Racial Threat Theory arguments, the authors
demonstrate that states with larger or growing Black and Hispanic
populations have more restricted voting, and that these restrictive
voting laws disproportionately demobilize these populations in
predictable ways. States with a higher cost of voting also show
lower minority electoral success as well as a larger gap in Black
and female representation, and the authors reveal that decreasing
the cost of voting does not lead to fraud or favor one party over
another. The Cost of Voting in the American States makes a case for
a new preclearance formula, and the COVI provides a viable approach
for future election law.
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