Recent well documented reductions in the thickness and extent of
Arctic sea ice cover, which can be linked to the warming climate,
are affecting the global climate system and are also affecting the
global economic system as marine access to the Arctic region and
natural resource development increase. Satellite data show that
during each of the past six summers, sea ice cover has shrunk to
its smallest in three decades. The composition of the ice is also
changing, now containing a higher fraction of thin first-year ice
instead of thicker multi-year ice. Understanding and projecting
future sea ice conditions is important to a growing number of
stakeholders, including local populations, natural resource
industries, fishing communities, commercial shippers, marine
tourism operators, national security organizations, regulatory
agencies, and the scientific research community. However, gaps in
understanding the interactions between Arctic sea ice, oceans, and
the atmosphere, along with an increasing rate of change in the
nature and quantity of sea ice, is hampering accurate predictions.
Although modeling has steadily improved, projections by every major
modeling group failed to predict the record breaking drop in summer
sea ice extent in September 2012. Establishing sustained
communication between the user, modeling, and observation
communities could help reveal gaps in understanding, help balance
the needs and expectations of different stakeholders, and ensure
that resources are allocated to address the most pressing sea ice
data needs. Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice:
Challenges and Strategies explores these topics. Table of Contents
Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2 Gaps in Our Understanding 3
Strategies for the Future 4 Conclusion References Appendixes
Appendix A: Summary of Recent and Evolving Arctic Sea Ice
Predictability Efforts Appendix B: Workshop Information Appendix C:
Summaries of Workshop Panels and Breakout Discussions Appendix D:
Committee and Staff Biographical Sketches
General
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