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Rationality In An Uncertain World - Essays In The Cognitive Science Of Human Understanding (Hardcover)
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Rationality In An Uncertain World - Essays In The Cognitive Science Of Human Understanding (Hardcover)
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This book brings together an influential sequence of papers that
argue for a radical re-conceptualisation of the psychology of
inference, and of cognitive science more generally. The papers
demonstrate that the thesis that logic provides the basis of human
inference is central to much cognitive science, although the
commitment to this view is often implicit. They then note that
almost all human inference is uncertain, whereas logic is the
calculus of certain inference. This mismatch means that logic is
not the appropriate model for human thought.
Oaksford and Chater's argument draws on research in computer
science, artificial intelligence and philosophy of science, in
addition to experimental psychology. The authors propose that
probability theory, the calculus of uncertain inference, provides a
more appropriate model for human thought. They show how a
probabilistic account can provide detailed explanations of
experimental data on Wason's selection task, which many have viewed
as providing a paradigmatic demonstration of human irrationality.
Oaksford and Chater show that people's behavior appears irrational
only from a logical point of view, whereas it is entirely rational
from a probabilistic perspective. The shift to a probabilistic
framework for human inference has significant implications for the
psychology of reasoning, cognitive science more generally, and for
our picture of ourselves as rational agents.
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