RONALD C. DUNCAN During the 1980s, substantial advances were made
in the global modelling of commodity markets in several areas,
advances which were reflected in many of the papers delivered to
the Applied Econometrics Association meeting held at the World Bank
in Washington, DC, in October 1988. The several areas where I see
advances being made, some of which the International Commodity
Markets Division of the World Bank has taken part in, are the
following: (a) in the theoretical specification of commodity price
behaviour; (b) in the increased emphasis on modelling imperfect
markets; (c) in the incorporation of the interrelationships between
macro economic and commodity market variables; (d) in the
specification of supply response, particularly in respect of
perennial crops; and (e) in the realization of complementarity
between time series analysis and economet rically estimated
structural models. Improvements in the specification of the
commodity price formation process have probably been the most
important of the above advances. Until the early 1980s, prices were
modelled as a simple linear function of stocks. Gilbert has played
an important role in introducing the rational expecta tions
hypothesis into the specification of commodity prices. Recent work
by Gilbert, Trivedi, and Deaton and Laroque offers the possibility
of non-linear specification of the relationship between prices and
stocks within an expectational framework and of thereby capturing
the phenomenon of sharp run-ups in commodity prices. Gilbert has
also played an important role in clarifying the interrelation ships
between macroeconomic variables and primary commodity prices."
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