Global payments imbalances and the rise of emerging economies
provide the background to this analysis of risk exposure and
near-insolvency at the world s major banks. Emerging Risk was
published in 1985, three years after the first international
banking crisis of the post-War era, but prior to resolution after
1989 of the underlying sovereign debt overhang. With episodes of
international financial instability punctuating the following
quarter century until the Lehman collapse of 2008, this re-issue
will contribute to the historical perspective on modern diagnoses
of policy weakness and financial sector excess that is clearly
needed. Whereas OPEC price increases in the 1970s were a source of
the earlier global imbalances, Chinese surpluses and those
occasioned by her rapid growth among commodity and oil producing
countries are today s equivalents. Emerging Risk documents the
earlier poor employment of surplus funds recycled to Latin America,
much as the failure of the USA and others to use Asian financing
productively is now evident. The role of the main global banking
institutions in each of these outcomes reveals common threads. As a
reading of Emerging Risk will confirm, both the special
consequences of free competition in a global banking market, and
the perverse incentives inherent in the remuneration of loan
officers, were clearly present in the mid-1980s. The interaction of
regulation and the competitive response of banks to produce
increased reliance on wholesale borrowing and lending, together
with enhanced gearing, have clear echoes in modern debates over the
consequences of the Basel provisions.
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