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European Monetary Union - Transition, International Impact and Policy Options (Paperback, Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1997)
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European Monetary Union - Transition, International Impact and Policy Options (Paperback, Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1997)
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Paul J. J. Welfens European monetary union has been discussed for
more than three decades and is likely to be realized in 1999. One
may anticipate generous interpretations of the fiscal convergence
criteria. Such generosity consistent with the Maastricht Treaty
might impair the credibility of the ECB and the stability of the
Euro, respectively, despite the fact that inflation is a monetary
phenomenon and has little to do with government deficits, unless
they were financed via the printing press, which is excluded in the
Maastricht Treaty. The European Commission's forecast of spring
1997 suggests that Italy will have problems in joining the EMU
starter group as the is expected to be 3. 2% in 1997 and even 3. 9%
in 1998. A Italian deficitlGDP ratio fully developed EMU group
(with all 15 cowltries included) would represent 38% of the OECD
GDP, slightly higher than the U. S. with 33% (Japan 21%). The
exports/GDP ratio of EU countries is 30%, the ratio with respect to
exports outside the EU would be 10% (Japan, U. S. 8%). The share of
the U. S. dollar in international currency reserves fell from 67%
to 40% in 1995, while the share of European currencies increased
from 13% to 37%. Prior to the EMU, market participants have to
anticipate whether a transition to 1999 will bring windfall losses
or gains in various bond markets.
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